Los Angeles Dodgers
2014: 94-68, 1st in NL West
Biggest Strength: The biggest strength for the reigning NL West champions has to be their starting rotation. The Dodgers pitching staff held a 3.40 ERA which was 6th best in MLB. Anytime you possess the best pitcher on the planet in Clayton Kershaw you already have a leg up on the competition. Kershaw won the NL MVP and NL CY Young award in 2014 and at the age of 26 it doesn’t look like he’s slowing down anytime soon. Combine Kershaw with another former CY Young award winner in Zack Greinke you have one of the best 1-2 combo in the entire league.
The Dodgers front office shored up the back end of the rotation with some veteran acquisitions in Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson. Both have some injury risks but when healthy they are solid back end starters. Hyun-Jin Ryu is the key piece to the Dodgers rotation. The Korean southpaw battled through injuries last season and it affected his numbers that the year before in his rookie season was impressive. If Ryu can stay healthy the Dodgers have one of the better and most complete rotations in the entire league.
Biggest Weakness: The Dodgers biggest strength is their rotation but their biggest weakness has to be their bullpen. The rotation accounted for most of the team’s pitching success as Los Angeles’ bullpen ranked 22nd in MLB with an ERA of 3.80. Now the Dodgers still possess one of the better closers in Kenley Jansen, but the problem was getting the ball to him. One problem the Dodgers will have early on is who will close since Jansen will miss at least the first month of the season with a foot injury. Los Angeles didn’t make many moves to upgrade the pen and they don’t have any young power arms on the way to step in and handle the back end. J.P. Howell is still a solid left-hander and the addition of Joel Peralta should help, but the one guy who needs to step up is Brandon League.
The Dodgers are paying him over $8 million to solidify the back end and bridge the gap to Jansen. There were plenty of options in free agency and the Dodgers have unlimited funds, this could bite them come postseason time when the games are shortened and matchups are key to exploit.
Impact Player: Clayton Kershaw might not pitch everyday but he is the Dodgers impact player. Kershaw missed the first month of the season last year but when he came back he was unstoppable. In 27 starts, Kershaw went 21-3 with a 1.77 ERA, both led major league baseball. He also led the majors in WHIP (0.86), WAR (7.5), K/9 (10.85), and FIP (1.81). What makes him so valuable to his team is the fact in his 27 starts the team won 23 of those games whether he factored in the decision or not. When Kershaw is on the mound it’s basically game over and you can chalk it up as a Dodger win.
2015 Prediction: 96-66, 1st in NL West
The Dodgers are the reigning NL West champs and are the clear favorites entering the 2015 season. Even though they traded Matt Kemp to a division foe in the San Diego Padres and Hanley Ramirez is now a Boston Red Sock, they made improvements in other areas. With the additions of Jimmy Rollins and Howie Kendrick up the middle the Dodger infield defense is vastly improved. The offense will have less power but they should have more balance up and down the lineup. If Yasiel Puig continues to develop his game and rookie centerfielder Joc Peterson lives up to his projection as a five-tool player, this team will be one of the most dynamic clubs in the big leagues.
San Diego Padres
2014: 77-85, 3rd in NL West
Biggest Strength: The San Diego Padres made a ton of moves to help their 30th ranked offense, but the strength of this team is still their starting rotation. The entire pitching staff accumulated a team ERA of 3.27, which ranked 4th in major league baseball. They ranked 10th in the major in quality starts with 91, the only concerning part of their rotation was that they ranked 27th in innings pitched with 1,438.2. Enter James Shields. The Padres upgraded their rotation by signing veteran right-hander James Shields. In his nine major-league seasons Shields has accumulated over 200 innings in a season eight times. In four straight seasons Shields has racked up at least 225 innings. He will bring a leadership quality to this young staff that includes All-Star Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner who both have proven to be top of the rotation starters. The last two spots in the Padres rotation will probably go to veteran starters Ian Kennedy and Brandon Morrow. This is complete rotation that has a nice combination of youth and experience. James Shield led a young starting staff in Kansas City to a World Series; this group in San Diego has the capability of having the same success.
Biggest Weakness: The Padres biggest weakness has to be their defense. New GM A.J. Preller drastically improved the team’s offense with guys who can hit for power. However, with that they sacrificed a lot of defense and athleticism. Matt Kemp had a great second half offensively but with all the injuries his defense is average at best for a right fielder. Justin Upton can cover some ground but he led all ML outfielders with eight errors, and youngster Wil Myers is coming off injury and he has never played centerfield so you don’t know what you’re getting there. Second baseman Jedd Gyorko is better suited for third base because he lacks the range and athleticism and newcomer Derrick Norris has never been known for his defense behind the plate. They can pitch and they seem to have a better offense but with that spacious ballpark I don’t think they have the personnel to correctly defend, which could put a lot of pressure on the pitching staff. They were middle of the pack defensively last season, they could be closer to the bottom third.
Impact Players: The San Diego Padres impact player has to be newly acquired Matt Kemp. Kemp is coming from the Los Angeles Dodgers where he finished the season with a slash line of .287/.346/.506 with 25 homeruns and 89 runs batted in. However, it was the second half that reminded everyone that Kemp is still capable of putting up MVP numbers. Post All-Star break Kemp slashed .309/.365/.606 with 17 homeruns and 54 runs batted in. During that span he led the NL in HRs (17) and was second in RBIs (54). The Padres brought Kemp in to lead this team and be the face of the franchise. If he can stay healthy it looks like Kemp is capable of doing just that.
2015 Prediction: 86-76, 2nd in NL West
San Diego won 77 games last season and they had a historically awful offense. With the additions to this team on offense combined with the pitching staff this team is capable of competing for a Wild Card spot. If the Dodgers get out of the gates slow maybe they could put pressure on the division champs, but no matter who you bring in it’s hard to make a huge job in the win total. They have the talent but it will be interesting to see how fast they all jell together because there is a human element and there is a bunch of new faces from different places.
San Francisco Giants
2014: 88-74, 2nd in NL West
Biggest Strength: The biggest strength the San Francisco Giants possess is their championship experience. That seems vague but when you look at their roster their talent doesn’t jump out at you. Yes, they have an ace in Madison Bumgarner but the rest of the rotation is full of pitchers in their mid-30s who are on the down swing of their careers. The offense is anchored by Buster Posey and Hunter Pence, but with the loss of Pablo Sandoval they lack power in the middle of the lineup. The Giants lineup is full of singles and doubles hitters which can weaken the offensive production throughout the length of a full major-league season. However, this is the reigning World Series champs and they deserve respect. They made few moves and have the same core group of guys, minus Sandoval, who carried them to their third World Series in five years. Never count them out because there is something to be said about chemistry and championship experience.
Biggest Weakness: San Francisco’s biggest weakness is their bench depth. The guys who will be battling for San Francisco’s five bench spots are: Gregor Blanco, Travis Ishikawa, Joaquin Arias, Matt Duffy, Juan Perez, Hector Sanchez, and Andrew Susac. This lot of players are more defense oriented and contact hitters, none possess that power off the bench that can scare a team in the late innings. Now give these guys credit, a few of them did come up big when the games mattered most, but on face value they are average to below-average bench players.
Impact Players: The Giants have two impact players, Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner. Both of these players came up through the Giants organization at the same time, and both have been important parts of the Giants World Series runs. Posey is a reigning MVP and Rookie of the Year, while Bumgarner is coming off the best postseason stretch from a pitcher in the history of major-league baseball. Posey is the stall worth in the middle of the Giants lineup as he slashed .311/.364/.490 with 22 homeruns and 89 runs batted in during the 2014 regular season. Madison Bumgarner went 4-1 with an ERA of 1.03 in 52.2 innings pitched while striking out 45 batters. In Game 7 of the World Series Bumgarner came in on short rest and pitched five shutout innings recording the save to win the World Series. Both of these players are equally important for the Giants to repeat.
2015 Prediction: 85-77, 3rd in NL West
If you go by the Giants trend they probably won’t make the playoffs this season, but it’s hard to count out the defending champs no matter the trend. Health is always the concern for contending teams and it’s pivotal if the Giants want to get back on top of the mountain. Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum have had a couple down years and they need to get back to where they were too sure up the Giants rotation. Without Sandoval, guys like Brandon Belt and newly acquired Casey McGehee will have to stabilize the middle of the lineup. Angel Pagan and Hunter Pence are the glue guys that keeps this team going and they will have to once again. With the trio of Buster Posey, Madison Bumgarner, and manager Bruce Bochey you can’t count this team out no matter who is playing.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2014: 64-98, 5th in NL West
Biggest Strength: The Arizona Diamonds biggest strength is the power in the middle of the lineup. Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Trumbo, and newly acquired Cuban player Yasmany Tomas all have 30-plus homerun power. Now, Tomas isn’t proven and has never played in the big leagues but according to scouts this guy has light-tower power and in that ballpark it’s possible it will come to fruition. Paul Goldschmidt and Mark Trumbo both dealt with injuries as they combined to play only 187 games hitting a combined total of 35 homeruns. Arizona has a really young pitching staff and they will need this offense to pick up the slack as they develop and mature. If the Arizona Diamondbacks want to compete in the NL West these three players will need to put up numbers, especially when it comes to the long ball.
Biggest Weakness: Arizona’s biggest weakness is their pitching staff. The Diamondbacks recorded a 4.26 ERA, which ranked 26th in major-league baseball. One positive about the rotation is that Patrick Corbin will be coming back off of Tommy-John surgery, but the Diamondbacks are being cautious and are bringing him back slowly, making his return date unknown entering the 2015 season. Arizona has a combination of inexperienced youth and veterans with something to prove. That’s not always a good combination to bank on for success. The bullpen isn’t much better but they have some upside at closer with Addison Reed. Brad Ziegler and Oliver Perez are reliable setup men but the rest of the pen is hit or miss on any given night.
Impact Players: The impact player for the Diamondbacks is their MVP Paul Goldschmidt. Goldschmidt was on his way to another MVP-caliber season before he suffered a fractured left hand on a fastball from Ernesto Frieri. In 109 games he slashed .300/.396/.542 with 19 homeruns and 69 runs batted in, while accumulating a WAR of 4.5. Goldschmidt is the best player in major-league baseball nobody knows about, and playing in Arizona doesn’t help his marketability. If he’s fully recovered from his hand injury this writer has no doubt he will get back to batting over .300 with 30-plus homeruns and 100-plus RBIs.
2015 Prediction: 76-86, 4th in NL West
Being in a division where the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants have a strangle hold on the division makes it tough to compete. Know you throw in the San Diego Padres who made a flurry of moves to upgrade their entire roster it makes it even tougher to win. Arizona has overhauled their organization and are starting to rebuild it. This is not a team that is ready to compete but if Tony La Russa and company can continue to build up this organization from the ground up they could be throwing their hat in the ring in a couple of years, but not in 2015.
Colorado Rockies
2014: 66-96, 4th in NL West
Biggest Strength: It’s hard to find any strength for a team who won only 66 games last season, but with all that losing they still have a dangerous offense. Coors field definitely helps, but they were still third in major-league baseball with 755 runs. Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez were absent from the lineup most of the season, but Justin Morneau was the constant as he won the NL Batting Title with an average of .319. Players like Corey Dickerson and Charlie Blackmon had career years as they combined to hit 43 homeruns. This team has always hit but it’s the pitching that has always let them down playing in the thin air of Coors Field.
Biggest Weakness: The same weakness that haunts the Rockies every year is their pitching staff. The ballpark isn’t conducive to pitching and that is why they have trouble bringing up young pitchers and free agents never chose Colorado, justifiably so. Colorado ranked at the very bottom of major-league baseball with an ERA of 4.84. They’ve tried a number of things to find success and thus far it hasn’t worked. The Rockies only hope is if the young pitchers they have coming up can be comfortable pitching in those conditions. They will never lead the league in ERA but if they can pitch to the score maybe they give themselves a chance to win more games.
Impact Players: The one guy that could carry this team to wins is shortstop Troy Tulowitzki. When healthy, you could argue that Tulo is the best player in major-league baseball. That’s the key, health. In eight years as everyday big-leaguer Tulowitzki has played in 150-plus game two times. He was only able to play in 91 games last season and slashed .340/.432/.603 with 21 homeruns and 52 runs batted in. Playing in a little over half a season he accumulated a WAR of 5.5. He’s that important to the Rockies success and the only way they can legitimately contend is if he’s playing at least 150 games.
2015 Prediction: 68-94, 5th in NL West
With the depth in the NL West I don’t see the Rockies becoming that Cinderella story. They can hit but their pitching is that bad. Trying to outscore teams has never been a recipe to succeed and it won’t start in 2015. The only way they could do that is if their boppers played for a full season and put up monster numbers, but Gonzalez and Tulowitzki never seem to be healthy and the older you get the harder it is to sustain health. I’m sure Rockies fans don’t want to hear this but their team will be in the cellar by the end of the season.
Summary of Division: This division will come down to three teams: Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, and San Francisco Giants. Each of the three teams can pitch which is what sets them apart from the bottom feeders of the division in the Arizona Diamondbacks and Colorado Rockies. It has been Dodgers-Giants division for the last five years but the Padres have pushed in all their chips and are ready to compete for the division. The Dodgers have the resources, Giants with experience, and the Padres have youth. It will be competitive but the Dodgers have the superior talent and a nice mix of veterans and youth that gives them the clear advantage to come out of the West.