Houston Astros Team Preview 2015

The Houston Astros have been in the cellar of the American League in recent memory, but that time looking up to the rest of the league may be coming to an end. This organization has had one of the best farm systems in the league for a few years now, and it is all starting to come to fruition.

Now that they have a few guys that many expect to be perennial All-Stars now solidified at the Major League level, the next wave of talent will attempt to prove themselves worthy this year around. In addition, the Astros made a few moves this year that suggest they are ready to start winning now.

Notable additions and subtractions this off-season

Additions

Evan Gattis
Luke Gregerson
Jed Lowrie
Colby Rasmus
Pat Neshek
Dan Straily
Luis Valbuena
Hank Conger
Joe Thatcher
Roberto Hernandez
Dan Johnson
Luis Flores
Will Harris
James Hoyt

Subtractions

Dexter Fowler
Mike Foltynewicz
Jesse Crain
Jose Veras
Carlos Corporan
Matt Albers
Andrew Thurman
Rio Ruiz
Delino DeShields
Jandel Gustave
David Rollins
Josh Zeid
Carlos Perez
Nick Tropeano
Jorge De Leon

Biggest Weakness – High strikeout rate

Even though the offense for Houston looks pretty good overall, there is a similarity throughout the entire lineup which is a negative, and it’s a very high strikeout rate. Everyone in this lineup -- with the exception of Jose Altuve and Jed Lowrie -- strikes out at a rate in the mid 20’s or higher. This could mean extreme offensive slumps for the entire team. The Astros have clearly targeted power in their acquisitons in recent years, and they are doing this cheaply by sacrificing the OBP numbers a little bit. The other side of this coin is the team hitting many home runs when things are clicking. If the Astros are among the league leaders in home runs this year, they have a chance of being successful, but if the K-rate gets the best of them, they could spend another year at the bottom of the A.L. West.

Biggest Strength – Open mindedness towards advanced metrics

Because the Astros organization was in the basement of the league for so long, they decided to try doing things a bit differently. They have experimented shifting more so than any other team in the league in 2014, and because of this, they might be able to get away with what most people would consider to be mediocre pitching more often. That way of defending has even made a few of their pitchers emerge as legitimate options (Keuchel and McHugh).

On the offensive side of the ball, they have been willing to use platoons to get the best matchups from a couple of different players and, therefore, get the most production possible out of each position. They have realized that power is the scarcest commodity and have gone after guys with legitimate pop to get their offense over the top. Now that they have gotten used to doing things a little differently than the norm for a few years, the comfort level should be going up, and the success level should follow. Moreover, they have some studs in their farm system who are now Major League.

Something to keep an eye on – Pitching staff

Another clear weakness of this team is the pitching staff. Outside of Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh, there are a bunch of question marks on this staff. Brett Oberholtzer has already gotten too much MLB exposure at this point, and some do not understand how he is still on the team. Dan Straily usually pitches great in the Minor Leagues, but he hasn’t faired as well in the Majors.

Scott Feldman was brought in to be an ace. He is not a true ace, but he is probably good enough to be a #4 or #5 starter. The organization has guys like Mark Appel and Vince Velasquez, but it looks like they won’t be Major League ready in 2015.

The Astros parted ways with a guy who looked just about ready in Mike Foltynewicz in favor of power hitter Evan Gattis, so they must have a plan in his absence. This writer isn’t sold that they have their pitching staff ready to succeed this year, so it will be interesting to see how things pan out.

**Potential Lineup - * = Lefty, ^ = Switch hitter**

Jose Altuve – 2B
George Springer – RF
Colby Rasmus – CF*
Chris Carter – 1B
Jason Castro – C*
Evan Gattis – DH
Luis Valbuena – 3B*
Jed Lowrie – SS^
Jake Marisnick – LF

Potential Bench

Hank Conger

Matt Dominguez

Marwin Gonzalez

Alex Presley

**Potential Rotation - * = Lefty**

Dallas Keuchel*

Collin McHugh

Scott Feldman

Dan Straily

Brett Oberholtzer*

Potential Bullpen

Luke Gregerson – Closer

Pat Neshek

Chad Qualls

Josh Fields

Tony Sipp*

Joe Thatcher*

Roberto Hernandez

Starting season on DL

Brad Peacock

Fantasy Bargain – Evan Gattis

Catchers who get everyday at-bats are hard to come by in fantasy since they get spelled so much. The good news here is that Gattis isn’t expected to play catcher at all this year. This means owners will get about 600 at bats from him, and he won’t have to deal with the wear and tear over the course of the season that a normal catcher has to go though. He will likely be eligible in the outfield as well in case an owner is short an outfielder.

Gattis is one of the most efficient power hitters in the league and should be expected to hit 30 home runs or more with a full season of at bats under his belt. Many fantasy owners loved Gattis when he was actually playing catcher; now that he is no longer catching but has the eligibility, he is fantasy gold. He is worth reaching for because of how thin the catcher position is.

Conclusion/Prediction

The Astros have been progressively moving up towards relevance in the Major Leagues over the past few seasons, and there is no reason why that trend should not continue. George Springer should have a full season in the Bigs and has a chance to become a player among the best in the league.

The offense has a chance to be great, and the forward-thinking front office seems to know which direction to take the team. In 2015, Houston should get close to a .500 record with an 80 win season, good enough for fourth place in the AL West.

Tyler spoke with Grant Kingery @TheGK7 on a radio interview about the Astros. Hear what Grant had to say.