The MLB regular season is almost over. Teams have exceeded expectations, fell below expectations while some teams have been exactly what people expected. So which teams were the most surprising or most disappointing? Let’s find out.
American League East
Surprise Team: New York Yankees
The New York Yankees have been extremely surprising in 2015. They led the American League East for the majority of the season, only now succumbing to the Toronto Blue Jays. However, they remain very much in the mix to win the division when almost nobody picked them for higher than a third place finish before the season. When 88 ESPN analysts predicted the standings for each division, the Yankees got all of four first-place votes, good for fourth in the division. While the Tampa Bay Rays (1 first-place vote) certainly deserve credit for being in the playoff mix in September, it’s the Yankees, with their aging veterans and less than good starting pitching that get the nod for surprise team of the division.
Disappointing Team: Boston Red Sox
This pick was a two-horse race between the Red Sox and the Orioles. They represent the bottom two teams in the division after they combined to garner 66 out of the 88 preseason votes from ESPN analysts to win the division. The Red Sox get the nod, not only because they were predicted to win the division by many, but because they had a much more complete roster. While the Orioles won the division in 2014, they lost both Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis to free agency, starting catcher Matt Wieters was injured to start the season and underperforming veteran shortstop J.J Hardy was still in the lineup. Meanwhile, the Red Sox had picked up star free agents Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez and had blooming stars in Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts. Dustin Pedroia was at second base, Mike Napoli was at first, and Cuban prospect Rusney Castillo was projected to start in right field. If not, 2013 World Series hero Shane Victorino or the ever-reliable Daniel Nava could fill in. They had reliable veteran Ryan Hanigan doing the catching. Their one real issue was their lack of an ace as injury-prone Clay Buchholz took the ball on Opening Day. However with their trade pick up of Rick Porcelllo, most Red Sox fans assumed he would fill in as the ace. No doubt, the Red Sox had higher expectations.
However, here we are in September and the Red Sox are 14 games out of first place. Pedroia has been injured through much of the second half, Napoli was terrible, Hanigan was injured, forcing the Red Sox to call up prospect Blake Swihart, Sandoval and Ramirez underperformed in a big way, Castillo was injured and failed to produce at the big-league level until a late July call-up. Buchholz is injured again, Porcello has been terrible and the rest of the rotation has been either decent or bad. Their bullpen has been terrible and, overall, the Red Sox have not been good. Bogaerts and Betts have been bright spots but Boston still gets the nod as the disappointing team in the division.
American League Central
Surprise Team: Minnesota Twins
Nobody expected the Twins to be good this season. They were considered a rebuilding squad, given no chance of making the playoffs, let alone win the stacked A.L Central division which had teams like the perennial powerhouse Detroit Tigers, the defending A.L champs in the Kansas City Royals, the Sports Illustrated World Series pick Cleveland Indians, and the Chicago White Sox who did big things during the offseason. The Twins immediately vaulted into first place and stayed on top until June 10 when the Royals overtook them. The Twins stayed close with the Royals, only four games out of first place at the All-Star Break. They have faded since, now twelve games out but still in second place. The Twins are only one game out of a wild card berth and a potential playoff spot that no one saw them claiming. Over the final month of the season, the Twins will look to catch the Texas Rangers for the second wild card spot while holding off teams like the Tampa Bay Rays, Los Angeles Angels, and the Cleveland Indians.
Disappointing Team: Detroit Tigers
The Tigers finished second to the Indians in the preseason poll in the A.L Central, claiming 17 first-place votes. While it’s fair to say Cleveland has been disappointing as well, at least the Indians are still in playoff contention, even if their chances are pretty slim. The Tigers, who began their 2015 campaign with a roster that included David Price, Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes, sit in the cellar of the division, twenty games behind the Royals and nine games out of a wild-card slot. Their 61-71 record is good for 13th in the league. This season follows a stretch of four consecutive division-winning campaigns. The Tigers’ 2015 season can only be chalked up as a disappointment.
American League West
Surprise Team: Houston Astros
Coming off a surprising 70-win season in 2014, most predictions regarding the Houston Astros picked them to finish fourth or fifth in the division, saying a reasonable goal for the rebuilding squad would be to win 80-81 games. Now, in September, Houston has already won 73 games and they sit in first place in the division, holding a two game edge over the almost equally surprising Texas Rangers. Led by their new ace and potential Cy Young award winner in Dallas Keuchel, as well as their plethora of power bats, Houston has surprised everyone this season and look to make a deep October run, years earlier than anyone expected.
Disappointing Team: Seattle Mariners
The Seattle Mariners were looking like they could finally meet expectations in 2015. They had an ace in Felix Hernandez, they had resigned one of their franchise players in Kyle Seager, they had Robinson Cano, and they had just signed a great power bat in Nelson Cruz. But the 2015 season has not panned out for the Mariners as they sit in fourth place in the division, nursing a 63-71 record. They are ten games out of the division and eight games out of a Wild-Card berth. Their offense has been decent but their pitching has been pretty bad. Even Hernandez is not living up to expectations, pitching to a 3.66 ERA. Their 4.31 ERA is 12th in the league. This is coming from a team that led the American League in ERA in 2014. There is no question that the Seattle Mariners have been tremendously disappointing.
National League East
Surprise Team: New York Mets
Pitching wins championships. The Mets are following that saying with one of the best rotations in the game led by the young Jacob DeGrom. Last season, the Mets finished with 79 wins and 17 games behind the Washington Nationals, finishing in third place. Some predicted the Mets to make a run at a playoff appearance but few saw them winning the division with the Nationals, led by what was seen as the best rotation in baseball. Yet on September 3, the Mets lead the Nationals by 6.5 games and have gone on a red-hot tear after the All-Star Break. Barring a September collapse, which the Mets have a history of, the Mets should secure their spot as the surprise team of the division.
Disappointing Team: Washington Nationals
This was a very tough pick between the Miami Marlins and the Washington Nationals. While the Marlins made noise in the offseason and entered 2015 with higher expectations than in previous seasons, the Nationals were easily the top pick in the National League. 85 ESPN analysts picked them to win the division and they garnered over 40% of the World Series vote as well. Chances of winning the division are looking slim for the Nationals as they sit 6.5 games out in the National League East and they would have to finish the season by going 26-4 in their final thirty games to match the 93-69 record that Vegas predicted they would achieve by the season’s end. They entered the season with a pitching rotation that was made up of former Cy Young winner Max Scherzer, a strikeout king in Stephen Strasburg, a budding ace with a no-hitter on his resume in Jordan Zimmermann, the crafty and underappreciated Doug Fister, and 2012 20-game winner Gio Gonzalez. With that pitching supported by an offense including Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth, Denard Span, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman, it seemed nearly impossible that the Nationals would not win the division. Yet late in September, it appears that not only will Washington surrender their division title to the New York Mets, but it also looks like they will miss out on the playoffs all together.
National League Central
Surprise Team: St. Louis Cardinals
It’s hard to pick a surprise or disappointing team in the National League Central mainly because the division standings are pretty much exactly what ESPN predicted them to be before the season. So it seems odd that the perennial powerhouse Cardinals get the nod as the surprise team but this is not because of their record as much as it’s about what the Cardinals had to overcome to get there. Ace pitcher Adam Wainwright was injured before the season, power-hitting first baseman Matt Adams has been out since May, outfielder Matt Holliday was stellar to begin the season and was selected to start the All-Star game but two stints on the disabled list has nulled his impact lately. Rookie Randal Grichuk stepped up to help fill some of the holes and was also injured. So who’s holding down the fort in St. Louis? Veteran John Lackey and former reliever Carlos Martinez lead a rotation with a 2.65 team ERA, the lowest ERA by any team since 1972. Michael Wacha and Lance Lynn have been superb as well. Offensively, little known players like Stephen Piscotty and Tommy Pham do the job for St. Louis. So the Cardinals are the surprise team not because of their record but because of what they’ve overcome to achieve that 86-47 mark.
Disappointing Team: Cincinnati Reds
Again, the disappointing team is hard to pick but the Reds are selected here simply because of just how bad they’ve been. Nobody expected the Reds to win a title but nobody expected them to be eliminated by September 3 either. Yet, the Reds are the first Major League team to be eliminated from postseason contention and sit 30.5 games out of the division. Even pessimistic Reds fans couldn’t have imagined this bad of a season.
National League West
Surprise Team: San Francisco Giants
The Giants won World Series in 2010, 2012, and 2014 but weren’t very good in 2011 or 2013. It seemed that would hold true after the Giants lost Pablo Sandoval, Michael Morse, and Nori Aoki to free agency but to the surprise of a lot of people, the Giants won’t go away. They repeatedly creep closer to stealing the second wild-card slot away from the Cubs but haven’t been able to hold onto a playoff position yet. Their playoff chances just took a major hit as they were just swept by the N.L West leading Los Angeles Dodgers and fell to 6.5 games out of both the division race and the wild-card race. However, they are still in contention, which is more than what most teams expected of them before the season.
Disappointing Team: San Diego Padres
The Padres made lots of noise in the offseason, picking up Will Myers, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Will Middlebrooks, James Shields, and Andrew Cashner. However, Myers and Kemp have been injured and unproductive when they were on the field, Middlebrooks was sent back to Triple-A and Cashner has accumulated just two wins on the mound. Upton and Shields have been decent but not good enough to lift the Padres who entered the season with high expectations. Vegas predicted them to finish with 84 wins which would have placed them third in the N.L West and one game out of a wild-card game berth. Instead, the Padres have won 64 games so far and sit 11.5 games out of a postseason berth. Not only that, but when the Padres were well out of contention at the trading deadline, Padres general manager A.J. Preller announced that his team wouldn’t be sellers because “We believe we can still contend in 2015.” That has not paid off for San Diego. 2015 has been disappointing in pretty much all areas for the Padres.
The MLB season has a month to go. The surprise teams are getting their cities excited for an unexpected pennant run while the disappointing teams are slogging through the final month of a subpar season, looking towards 2016 rather than a deep run in October.