LeBron James and his decision (Part Deux) is at the top of the news right now, and so is his current team, the Miami Heat. Pat Riley and Co. have a lot of critical decisions to make, and we here at VAVEL USA are going to analyze their position in 5 questions, answered by some of the top writers in the network.
We hope you enjoy!
If You Were Pat Riley, How Would You Make Your Pitch For LeBron James To Stay?
Dalton Keene: It's simple, as I would bring in the talent LeBron wanted. Whatever it takes and however it needs to be done, I would do it to keep LeBron in a Heat jersey. He's one of the best, if not the best ever and you have to do what you can to keep him happy as crazy as it may seem. LeBron being happy and surrounded by better talent means more and more championships and more and more money.
Robert Hyland: If I were Pat Riley, I would continue the approach he began when he issued comments right after the Finals. LeBron has the label of being a business man rather than a team guy, so Riley needs to show him that being a team guy is important. Sit LeBron down in a room and show him tapes of Bird, Jordan, Kobe. Explain to LeBron that just as much of these players legacy has come from what they did with one solitary team. These players are all great but all have that one emblem of their team behind them. Closing point - no one remembers Jordan for his time on the Wizards, LeBron could enter that obscurity if he continues to change cities.
Vahan Shakhpazyan: If I were Pat Riley, I would first tell LeBron James about the success they've had in Miami. I would then note that James is the key to Wade and Bosh returning to play for less cash, so they can add more talent. I would tell him about my plans to pursue other role players and improve the bench. Most importantly, I would tell LeBron that they are looking for a solid ball handler at the point guard position to take the pressure off of him, which may come in Shabazz Napier.
Austin Reynolds: Look at what happened a year ago with Manu Ginobili in the 2013 Finals. He was a no-show and people were killing him for it all off-season. He bounced back last year and averaged 14 points per game off the bench in the playoffs, helping the Spurs get back to the Finals and get their revenge against Miami. If I'm Pat Riley, I try to convince LeBron that Wade can do the same thing. Now, do I honestly believe Wade can do that? I don't think so, but last summer I thought the same way about Ginobili, and if it helps bring back LeBron you have to do it. James has also said he wants a max contract, and it's also important to remember that Miami can offer him more than any other team since they have his bird rights.
Mark Lynch: One thing Pat Riley can do to keep LeBron James a member of the Heat, besides pay him the max, is convince him on Miami itself and how the organization plans on treating him after he retires. A guy like Alonzo Mourning is still around and will always remain around because he decided to stick around. Sell him on the fact that when Zo went down with his health problems that they never turned their back on him and stuck with him to the end. Sell him on the city that his wife has a business in and the schools and friends that his children would have to leave if he leaves the team. While money does talk, there are also a lot of little factors that can easily turn into big deals when they're compiled. Pat Riley is smart enough and has been around players of different egos long enough to know how to get what he wants.
Connor Deitrich: If I were Pat Riley, my pitch to LeBron James would be easy: the success he has had so far in his four years in Miami. Four straight finals appearances (winning two of them) should be able to attract anyone to a team, even the best player in the world. I would also be sure to include the costless agents who could potentially sign in Miami to try to lure James in. Lastly, I would bring up the amount of hate he received when he left Cleveland, and ask him if that would be something he would want to have to put up with again.
Talar Kahwajian: If I were Pat Riley, the pitch I’d make to LeBron James to keep him in a Heat uniform would consist of past success and a vision for the future. I’d remind LeBron of all the success that has been achieved in four short years and for him not to forget that Miami made him a champion. That we did it once and we can do it again no problem, we just need a few more pieces to help him out. With the signings of McRoberts and Granger, that gives LeBron a little more support and eases the pressure albeit very slightly. He’s king of Miami and going anywhere else would be a mistake, because no one could give him what we in Miami can. He can play with Shabazz Napier, a point guard that although is a rookie has championship experience and does not rattle easily. He would be a big boost for the club, and LeBron James and make Napier into a deadly weapon.
Bryan Castillo: If I’m Pat Riley, my plan is to reinforce to LeBron that I’ve done everything I said I would do when he moved to Miami in 2010. I was able to put a supporting cast around you that was able to go to 4 straight NBA Finals and I will continue to rebuild the supporting cast year in and year out. We’re going to give you a max deal, which you rightfully deserve and have enough cap space to fill the rest of the roster. There is no other NBA executive in the league that has had the success that the Miami Heat has endured over the last 4 years. The Eastern Conference right now is the easier conference to make it back to the Finals year after year and the way we’re constructed we’ll be in the discussion every year. Come back and we can continue building a team dynasty that will go down as one of the greatest in league history with you at the helm.
Addison Hunsicker: If I was Pat Riley, my pitch for LeBron to remain in South Beach would revolve around explaining the plan to build pieces around him that would boost the Heat back into the NBA Finals. LeBron wants to win, and wants to win with the maximum contract. Because of that, I would have to explain as Pat Riley how I am going to give him the best chance of adding a third championship to his belt with the tight budget that Miami currently has. Part of giving him the best chance to win is surrounding LeBron with pieces that LeBron wants. It all comes down to trust with an athlete like LeBron, and in the end, I would tell him to trust me because I have already brought him two championships, and championships do not come along that easy.
Darin Anderson: In Riley’s mind, he is thinking something like this: If LeBron leaves, we will also lose Bosh, Wade and who knows who all else, effectively making us look like the James-less Cavaliers for years to come. We cannot win with Chalmers, and Birdman will not carry us far with his limited wings. We have to keep LeBron or we are LeDone and I will be LeUnemployed. However, his words will come out like this: With you, King James, and our new-look roster of Granger, McRoberts, Napier, and such, we will no doubt be the class of a weak Eastern Conference once again. If you suit up for us over the next three years, you have a reasonable chance of playing in the NBA Finals for 7 or more consecutive years. Otherwise, you are rendered Finals-less either in Cleveland or in the hyper competitive West for the duration of your new contract. Simply stated, Mr. King James, you stay here and win now, albeit with less cash, or you take your max contract elsewhere and probably look the Finals on TV. Your choice.
Grading Miami's Additions of Danny Granger, Shabazz Napier, and Josh McRoberts
Keene: B Overall. I'd give it a B grade, as it's not all that great but that's some serious talent to bring off of your bench. Two of them could easily be all-stars and one has been an all-star. The other could very well be the ROY, it's all that Pat Riley can do up to this point. There's still a ton more moves to come.
Hyland: B- Overall. Danny Granger - Many people will probably be high in this pick-up, but it's just plain to me. Simply just another three point shooter to spread the floor with Granger is no longer useful in the other facets of the game. At this point in his career he is almost a copy of Rashard Lewis. Shabazz Napier - I personally am not high on Napier as a prospect however from a purely fit standpoint Napier is perfect for Miami. He offers a better offensive game than Chalmers and more impact play than Cole. Josh McRoberts - Guys that do the little things may very well have been what was missing for Miami in the Finals and that's exactly what McRoberts is. He won't be a huge player in Miami but will be terrific setting screens, hustling , and giving fouls particularly if Lebron comes back.
Shakhpazyan: B+ Overall. McRoberts was a terrific pick-up. He is very versatile, with great passing abilities for a big man. He is athletic with good basketball I.Q., and really fits in to the unselfish nature of Miami's big three. Granger was an average pick up. He's been on and off with his injuries and has lost his touch on offense. However, he is still big and strong and can help the Heat on the defensive end. He would be a great backup small forward to LeBron James. LeBron James loves Shabazz Napier, and Shabazz Napier would love LeBron. Match made in basketball heaven?
Reynolds: B Overall. I think McRoberts is going to be awesome for Miami. I think his game fits in well with Miami's system, and he can also give the offense another dimension since they haven't really had a playmaking big man in the LeBron era. It's the other two I'm not so sure about. Danny Granger is a shell of his former self, but it's not like the Heat had a great bench last season. At worst adding Granger is probably an even swap for what they got out of Rashard Lewis last season, so it's not a bad move. As for Shabazz Napier, it's too early to tell. I got to see Napier in person twice his senior year and became a big fan, but we just don't know yet how well his game is going to translate to the NBA, especially with him being an undersized guard.
Lynch: D Overall. The addition of Shabazz Napier isn't something that can be graded until he actually plays a game. If LeBron leaves, then they drafted the player LeBron wanted just so he would leave. But at this point, almost anything will be better than Norris Cole. Danny Granger could easily be the best thing that happens to the Heat bench. He has the ability to go off for twenty or more any given night. Playing against the other team's second unit will also be a plus for him. Unfortunately, this was the situation he was in when he was playing for Indiana and the Clippers and he didn't produce. To top it off, Granger can't stay healthy. McRoberts is probably the only pick up that might help. The Heat have no inside defense and he will add that. Unfortunately, that's all he adds.
Deitrich: B Overall. The acquiring of Shabazz Napier on draft day gets a "B". Napier was a good player in college, but was he worth giving away two future draft picks? If Miami would've drafted him instead of trading, this grade could be higher. If they were planning on giving away two picks, they should've traded for a point guard with more size. Either way, Napier will likely backup Norris Cole until he proves he can start (assuming Miami does not bring back Mario Chalmers.) The signing of Josh McRoberts receives an "A-" and was the Heat's best move up to this point. He likely will play backup to Chris Bosh, unless Bosh leaves. McRoberts has a similar play style to Bosh, liking to step out and knock down jump shots. The difference is that McRoberts is tougher and a better rebounder than Bosh, something Miami has really been lacking. Also interesting to note, McRoberts had the best assist to turnover ratio of all big men last year, so he is also a better passer than Bosh. Though not as skilled, McRoberts will do well either as a backup to Bosh or a starter if Bosh leaves. Danny Granger's signing was Miami's worst move yet this offseason, so it gets a "C+". Granger simply isn't the player that he used to be. He can still step out and knock down threes, but he can't play defense and isn't very athletic anymore. His knees aren't in good shape anymore, maybe even worse than new teammate Dwyane Wade's (but nowhere near as bad as other teammate Greg Oden's). The only good thing about this signing is that Granger came cheap at two years, $4.2 million. As long as he will be able to hit his three-pointers come playoff time, this will turn out to be a successful signing, though.
Kahwajian: B Overall. Shabazz Napier- A+, while there were other players on the board, the Miami Heat managed to snatch up the one guy LeBron James wanted the most out of anyone in the draft. Napier brings a championship pedigree and four full years of college experience, very valuable in today’s NBA. With Mario Chalmers up in the air as a costless-agent, the point guard position for Miami was in need of a makeover after Chalmers horrendous playoff run. Napier can step in and although he will need help, he can be a threat immediately. The Heat took initiative and got themselves a draft pick, and Napier might be the pick to convince LeBron James to stay in South Beach. Danny Granger- C, while Granger finally started playing basketball again, he was traded then costlessly signed with the Clippers, who did not bring him back for next season. Before Paul George came along, Granger was ‘the guy’ in Indiana, he was an up and coming star, before a series of injuries battered him into a has-been. The reason he isn’t graded as a D is because at the age of 31, Granger may still have a little left in the tank to prove people wrong. I’m waiting to see if he shocks anyone this season. Josh McRoberts- C-, again this could easily be a D but due to his youth and height, it is a pretty good addition to the Heat roster. McRoberts spent last season in Charlotte, and averaged 8.5 ppg and five rebounds. Those numbers don’t stand out at all, but he’s a big body and he provides much needed length to a Heat team that sorely lacked it. McRoberts doesn’t do anything for me as a player, but given the right situation he may be able to contribute as a member of the Heat.
Castillo: C+ Overall. I’ll give the Heat drafting Napier a B, largely because he’s LeBron’s favorite college player rather than based on his NBA potential. The Heat drafted Napier largely due to appease LeBron, and as a player, Napier had a nice NCAA tournament run but that’s about it. Napier is undersized at 6’0” and is very raw to believe he can be an immediate contributor for a championship contender. LeBron may like Napier on a lot of levels, but from a basketball standpoint it’ll be a while before he can contribute. Far as adding costless agents Granger and McRoberts, I’ll give Miami a C- on these two acquisitions. Granger is a solid player but he’s had knee issues over the years and the Heat already have a superstar in Dwayne Wade with his share of knee issues. McRoberts on the other hand is a solid player who can spread the floor and a great passer for a big man, but he too is no more than a solid role player. So overall I’m giving the Heat a C+ on these acquisitions, and if I’m LeBron I’m not overly excited with the moves made by the Heat thus far.
Hunsicker: A Overall. As it pertains as a part of the pitch to re-sign LeBron, I would give Miami a solid A with the additions of Danny Granger, Shabazz Napier, and Josh McRoberts. Big men have been an issue for Miami during LeBron’s tenure, even during the championship seasons. By adding Danny Granger as another forward along with Josh McRoberts to help solidify the paint, Miami did an excellent job at addressing a serious issue that could have gave LeBron a reason to leave. Of course, the biggest addition for Miami was Shabazz Napier, who they traded up to get in the draft. I love this move for Miami. If Mario Chalmers becomes a costless agent, Shabazz can take his spot in the starting lineup. Napier gives Miami depth at the guard position with Wade’s injury concerns and need to play limited minutes because of those concerns. These three signings by Miami certainly gave LeBron more of a reason to stay.
Anderson: D- Overall. Granger is Caron Butler. Napier is Norris Cole. McRoberts is a taller Battier. The moves make them younger, but not necessarily more talented. Granger could turn into a formidable bench player, lust as Butler was at times, but he was not doing much for Indy, so they dumped him. We have no reason to expect he will do much different in a Heat uniform. Napier could be the next big thing. Or he could turn out to be Miles Simon, another NCAA winner who put his team on his back and carried it to a championship. Is Shabazz better than Cole, right now? It makes me scratch his head. And McRoberts is athletic and versatile, but all he has on Battier is youth. I don’t see his presence as an upgrade over Haslem or Andersen or even Oden. He might help, sure, but is he a title difference maker? Doubt it.
% Chance Wade Stays In Miami, And Where He'll Go If He Leaves
Keene: 99.9% Out of all of the Big 3, I think Wade stays. He seems somewhat loyal and it would be in his best interest to stay somewhere where he can win and rely on other players and other stars when he has one of his off nights.
Hyland: 1000000% Chance Wade Stays in Miami - I think we all can do the math and also see Wade losing a step, so unless he is willing to leave tens of millions of dollars on the table, he will return to Miami
Shakhpazyan: 25%. Dwyane Wade is looking like the most unlikely player to return to Miami. Yes, he's been with this franchise for his whole career, but his injury issues are a huge concern. Only way the Heat take him back is if he agrees to a huge pay cut. Otherwise, the Heat are going to look elsewhere for a new starting shooting guard. If Wade doesn't re-sign with the Heat, he will probably go to the Suns to provide veteran leadership and experience.
Reynolds: 95 percent. I can't see a scenario where Dwyane Wade leaves Miami, even if Bosh and LeBron skip town. Wade's been so loyal to the Heat throughout his career that you get the sense that he'll retire there, but then again we all said the same thing about Paul Pierce, so it's not impossible. If he does leave I think Phoenix would be an interesting destination. It's no secret that the Phoenix medical staff can work miracles, and it would be fun to see if Wade could find the fountain of youth there.
Lynch: If Dwyane Wade leaves the Heat, he goes back home to Chicago to end his career. The problem with Wade is that his days of a starter might be over. He's still a great shooting guard. But he's a great shooting guard who is not going to play a full season and probably won't play half a season depending on the surgery he needs. Wade would be smart to do one of two things. Stay in Miami and retire a lifer in a year or two and leave on a high note. Or sign a contract where you take a major pay cut, come off the bench in a smaller role (but you'll still be in the game in the clutch). Or be a complete idiot and start demanding a max contract that you don't deserve.
Deitrich: There is a 100% chance that Dwyane Wade is staying in Miami. He has been there his whole career and he will be there for the rest of his career. Wade will gladly take a paycut if it means helping the organization that he loves so much. However, if the two other members of the "Big 3" leave Miami, it is possible that Pat Riley gives Wade a huge contract to give thanks for all Wade has done for the franchise. Though he isn't the player he once was, we will never see Dwyane Wade in a uniform other than the Miami Heat.
Kahwajian: 100%- There’s no real market for D-Wade anymore, he made a stupid decision opting out of over 40 million dollars without really knowing what the plan was. At 32, his knees are already shot and he can’t even play a full season anymore. There may be some interest among contenders, but Wade isn’t leaving lavish Miami anytime soon. The Heat value him more than any other team in the NBA will.
Castillo: 100% - Dwayne Wade isn’t going anywhere, you can bet the house on that. There’s been speculation over whether Bosh and James will stay but none concerning Wade’s status. I can’t see even the slimmest chance that Wade leaves the team that drafted him and the city that has cherished him throughout his career. Dwayne Wade knows he’s no longer the player he once was and will take less money over a longer period of time to stay in Miami. This could be Wade’s last contract depending on how much longer his knees can hold up. But one things is certain, Wade isn’t leaving South Beach.
Hunsicker: 100% - Dwayne Wade will be playing for the Miami Heat. Regardless of what Bosh and LeBron do, Wade will stay in South Beach for the final stretch of his career. He has nowhere else to go and quite frankly, does not want to leave. No other NBA team will pay him what he wants to get paid, and what he will get paid in Miami. Plus if money is not the only factor, no other contending team has the cap space to sign Wade or has a spot on their roster where he would come in and play significant minutes.
Anderson: 50%. Wade’s percentage is contingent on the other two. If both ditch him, he will follow the money trail to a contending team. 50% chance he stays. If he goes, look for him to end up as a starter somewhere, playing limited minutes, as he will not want to come off the bench just yet. Portland seems like a decent place, as does OKC, where he could be a Sefalosha starter for the Thunder. Would he dare go to Indiana?
% Chance Bosh Stays In Miami, And Where He'll Go If He Leaves
Keene: 60%. That's slowly decreasing though since the Rockets seem like they're all in. Giving Bosh a max contract is somewhat questionable but if that's what it takes I can see him beside Dwight Howard and play very well and win a lot of games.
Hyland: 33%. Chance Bosh Stays in Miami - Bosh consistently expresses his desire to get more touches and I think will be looking for a more significant role around the league. As far as where he will go I wouldn't be surprised if it was Houston, he would still have to compete for touches but will get a mad contract as already offered and won't have to play much D thanks to Howard.
Shakhpazyan: 55%. There's more optimism that Chris Bosh returns. Bosh was just offered a four-year, $88 million deal by the Houston Rockets. That's $22 million annually. Any sane player would take that immediately, but Bosh is still considering the offer. Bosh fully knows that he won't see that kind of money elsewhere, but it seems like he is waiting on LeBron before making his decision. He probably wants to see if LeBron re-signs with the Heat because he still has intentions of returning as well. Of course if Bosh doesn't go to the Heat, he will go to the Rockets to form a new big three in H-Town.
Reynolds: 30%. With the news coming yesterday that Houston has offered Bosh a four-year max contract, it's becoming a lot harder for me to envision Bosh returning to South Beach. To make the money work in Miami, Bosh would have to take something like $12 million a year, give or take a million. Houston can pay him almost twice that. The argument for taking less to contend for a championship in Miami doesn't make a lot of sense either, considering that a big three of Bosh, Dwight Howard, and James Harden can contend from day one and also contend for longer, considering Howard and Harden's age compared to James and Wade. But if LeBron does decide to return to Miami, a weak Eastern Conference could convince Bosh to stay as well.
Lynch: 4%. Bosh is gone. Period. He wants more money and Miami isn't going to pay him big money. But, Houston totally will. They need a big man that can spread the floor and create his own shot. This will help Howard get open down low and relieve some of the pressure on him to score. It also helps that Bosh is from Texas.
Deitrich: 50%. The chance that Chris Bosh stays in Miami is about 50%. He is considered by many to be the most likely of the Big 3 to leave. If he were to leave, the only place he would be headed is Houston. Since Bosh doesn't play in the paint much, it makes sense for him to team up with arguably the best center in the NBA in Dwight Howard. Giving Howard all that space to work would result in big time success for him and the team. Depending on what happens with the rest of the Big 3, Bosh could potentially have a better chance to win in Houston than Miami. Also, it is worth noting that Houston has already offered Bosh a max contract, so that could also be a big factor if he were to leave.
Kahwajian: 30%- With LeBron wanting max money, it’s easy to see Bosh leaving. Chris Bosh wants a max deal and with reports he is seriously considering Houston’s offer of max 4 years/$96 million and a shot at a title playing alongside Dwight Howard and James Harden in his own home state, I think the offer is too sweet for him to refuse, and with LeBron also not on the same page as Wade and Bosh, if I were Chris I’d take the money and run.
Castillo: 25% - Bosh is the most likely of the “Big 3” to leave Miami as the Houston Rockets are offering a max deal for him to leave Miami. Many have speculated that LeBron would love to team up with Carmelo Anthony and perhaps even in Miami. For that to happen Bosh would be the odd man out and it’ll be hard to resist such a lucrative from the Rockets. Not only that but Bosh fits the Rockets style of play much better than he does down in South Beach. The longer this drags out the most likely it’ll push Bosh to speed up his decision as the Rockets also have restricted costless agent Chandler Parsons to consider. My prediction is Bosh leaves and forms a new “Big 3” in Houston with Dwight Howard and James Harden.
Hunsicker: 50% - With Bosh being offered multiple max contracts according to several sources, and with one of those teams being the Houston Rockets, I give Miami a 50% chance of resigning Bosh. I believe that Chris Bosh was an underappreciated player in Miami, and he is underappreciated throughout the entire league. He has developed his game onto another level, and deserves every penny of a max contract if that is the path he decides to go. If he leaves Miami, he will end up Houston to form a new big 3 with James Harden and Dwight Howard. However, every star player wants to win, and if Miami can pay Bosh well enough where he wants to stay to contend for a third championship, I believe that is what he would want to do.
Anderson: 87% - In the twilight of his prime, Bosh has made it clear that he wants the financial stability that comes with a max contract. (If we all could be so lucky!) He will not get top cash in Miami, and heck, he already has two rings there, so why stick around? Aside from warm weather (enough of the East Coast winter), he sees home, dollar signs, and championship potential in Texas where he can start a new Big 3. Regardless of what LeBron James decides, I say he will pull a Robert Horry and head to Houston at...85-90% odds.
% Chance James Stays In Miami, And Where He'll Go If He Leaves
Keene: 50%. I say 50% because I really don't know about LeBron anymore. There's been crazy reports of him going to Cleveland, Los Angeles, and even the Rockets. I see him staying with Miami when the dust settles. He'll realize that's the only place where he can win consistently.
Hyland: 90%. Ultimately the decision for LeBron will come down to who is the team most likely to win. Right now with the East being a charity ride to the Finals and the outlook of most of his suitors looking like teams that just want to put all the weight on his shoulders, LeBron will stay in Miami where it is familiar. Personally I hope he goes back to Cleveland just because it would make one heck of a story!
Shakhpazyan: 65%. LeBron James is the cornerstone of all this. He is facilitating this years costless agency market. Bosh and Wade will most likely follow LeBron's lead if he re-signs with the Heat. It seems like they are both waiting on LeBron's decision. Also, James was notified of the McRoberts signing. It seems like he still has ties with the team, and Pat Riley is looking for his approval for everything with the expectation that LeBron will return. It also seems like James still wants to re-sign. That is his first choice because he's been the one wanting the big three to stay together. He had meetings with Bosh and Wade to discuss the future, and he wants things to work out. If LeBron does not re-sign with Miami, he will chose the Cleveland Cavaliers, who are reportedly the favorites to land the four-time MVP.
Reynolds: 50%. I have no idea what percentage to even put on this. 50, I guess? I definitely think it's a two-team race between Miami and Cleveland. I'd be shocked if he ended up elsewhere. Miami can offer him the bigger contract, but at least for now the roster looks a little grim. Even if Wade and Bosh return, the only other players the Heat have right now are Norris Cole, Justin Hamilton, Shabazz Napier, Danny Granger and Josh McRoberts. They're playing in the East so LeBron's at least taking them to the conference finals, but it's going to take one hell of an effort for that team to beat whoever comes out of the West, and in the coming years Wade and Bosh will only be declining. As for Cleveland, James joining a young core of Kyrie Irving and Andrew Wiggins is promising and would immediately contend in the East. Plus Cleveland is LeBron's home, so that's a pretty huge pull. No matter how it plays out, it should be fun to look.
Lynch: 50%. The more time goes on, the more I think LeBron is leaving. Originally I was against him getting a max contract until I had talk with a coworker and he brought up a point that he is in fact the best player in the world, and he is the reason you give someone a max contract. Big time players deserve big time money. That being said, it's 50/50 on whether he leaves or stays. Him staying depends on whether or not Riley and the Heat organization shows him the money. Nothing more and nothing less.
Deitrich: 80%. Now to the question that has been asked the most this offseason. "What will LeBron James do?" Well, in my opinion, there is about an 80% chance he stays in Miami. The only other option would be to rejoin his former team, the Cleveland Cavaliers. When you compare the rosters, Miami definitely has a better roster than Cleveland. LeBron's main goal if winning, so roster talent would be a huge factor. Also, it has been reported that James wants a max contract, which Pat Riley would gladly give him. It has also been talked about, but not officially reported, that if Chris Bosh would leave and go to Houston, Carmelo Anthony would want to join LeBron. If that were the case, there is no way that LeBron is leaving Miami. No matter what he does though, his decision will have the sports world talking for weeks.
Kahwajian: 50% - This 50 is a tentative number, it’s hard to say exactly what James is thinking at the moment, but with all the talk about Cleveland as a frontrunner the race seems evenly split. Each organization has its flaws, with Cleveland boasting an arrogant owner who seems to have no filter, especially after James left for Miami. The Heat however aren’t much better, they have no real money to work with, and so far whoever Pat Riley has brought in aren’t exactly studs or game changers. Cleveland has a much better roster, a talented point guard and a number 1 pick who can take over games. Miami however is where James won his rings, he’s mr. bigshot down in South Beach and clearly has an influence on front-office decisions.
Castillo: 51% - LeBron James is the biggest domino everyone is waiting to fall. It’s really anyone’s guess at this point whether LeBron decides to stay in Miami or go back to his home team the Cleveland Cavaliers. While I believe LeBron will eventually end up in Cleveland I don’t think that time is right now. Considering their friendship, as long as Dwayne Wade is still performing anywhere close to an All-Star level it’s hard for me to fathom LeBron leaving Miami. For that reason I think LeBron signs a one or two-year deal to stay in Miami and then goes back to Cleveland to finish off his career. A year or two later Kyrie Irving will be heading into the prime of his career and Andrew Wiggins should be coming into his own. While it’s compelling for LeBron to head back to Cleveland right now, in the end I think he’ll wait another year or two while Dwayne Wade still has some life left in his knees.
Hunsicker: 80% - Ultimately I see LeBron signing a one-year deal with Miami in order to see how the duo of Kyrie Irving and Andrew Wiggins works out for the first time. No team that wants LeBron is giving him a legitimate reason to come to them. All Cleveland is doing is trying to clear the necessary cap space they would need to offer LeBron a max contract, despite them already locking up Kyrie Irving, even though that move is not making the Cavs better. The Lakers are in a horrible position, as they have no supporting cast if LeBron were to sign there. If Melo decides to sign in LA or Chicago, New York would be in the same position as the Lakers are currently in without Melo or LeBron. Pat Riley knows how to lure costless agents to Miami, which is why it is best for LeBron to stay put for one more year before really testing the market. If he does decide to sign elsewhere, he will go to Cleveland even though I think he should go to Phoenix. Goran Dragic, Eric Bledsoe, Gerald Green, Miles Plumlee, TJ Warren, Tyler Ennis, and the Morris brothers? The Suns are only a LeBron away from winning a championship.
Anderson: 75%. LeBron James is the best player of his generation, an aged Kobe Bryant excluded. He has two rings, one after a lockout shortened season, and another after San Antonio neglected to box out Bosh in Game 6. But nonetheless, as the best in the world, he thinks he deserves, and rightfully so, to be the highest paid player on his team. He can get that in Miami, but only if Wade agrees to a pay cut. Bosh is gone, most likely, but King James can still win without him. Much has been made of his ability to take a weak Cavaliers roster to the Finals, and the crew in Miami, Bosh notwithstanding, would be vastly better than Cleveland was. Or, James can take his talents to the Left Beach and join the Clippers in LA. But then he has to face San Antonio, OKC, Portland, Houston, and Golden State 4-5 times each per year. To me that will be the biggest turnoff for LeBron. So I predict LeBron will stay in Miami, get his max contract, and live to play in the Finals 2-3 more times. All of this at 75% odds. 25% that he goes back to Cleveland to be the can-do-no-wrong hometown hero with a boat load of cash.