The NBA Playoffs are a little over two weeks away and the playoff picture is beginning to take shape. With both conferences' number one seeds wrapped up, being Golden State and the Atlanta Hawks respectively, it’s time to separate the teams which have a legitimate chance at the Larry O’Brien trophy, and who are just there to make up the numbers. With the exception of the surprising number one seeded Hawks, the Eastern conference seems pretty straight forward. Outside of Cleveland and Chicago, there really aren’t any other realistic contenders (Sorry Drake, the Raptors aren’t quite there yet). The Western Conference, however, is a totally different story as it seems to be anybody’s ball game at this point, no matter who finishes in what seed nothing is certain. So who has a legitimate shot in the Wild Wild West?
Oklahoma City Thunder – currently 8th in the Western Conference
Despite making some terrific roster moves at the trade deadline and Russell Westbrook playing out of his mind, the Thunder has had a tough run this year which has just been capped off with the announcement that Kevin Durant will not return for the season. Add that to the already huge loss of Serge Ibaka and a first-round match up with the Golden State Warriors almost inevitable, the Thunder looks dead in the water. Since Ibaka went down, Steven Adams and Enes Kanter have formed an effective combination down low with both being able to produce double-doubles on a nightly basis. However, Oklahoma City are 25th in defensive efficiency since acquiring Kanter, and against teams like the Warriors, Spurs, and the Rockets who attack the basket and shoot corner threes almost at will, the Thunder is going to struggle mightily come playoff time. Unless Russell Westbrook averages a huge number triple-double, OKC will need a miracle to get out of round one.
Final Thought – Russell Westbrook shines as usual but a round one exit at the hands of the Splash Brothers looks to be a sure thing.
Dallas Mavericks – currently 7th Seed in the Western Conference
Raise your hand if you thought Dallas were a legitimate title threat after the Rondo trade. Despite looking fantastic on paper, the Mavs are heading the opposite way. Since acquiring Rondo, the Mavericks offense, once the most effective in the league, has struggled to produce and injuries to Monta Ellis and Chandler Parsons have certainly slowed down their momentum. Chemistry issues between Ellis and Rondo have been evident despite Ellis himself publicly denying that. The Dallas two guard is averaging 16 points per game since the All-Star break, a huge drop from the 20 points per game he was putting up prior. A recent 4 for 22 shooting performance against the Phoenix Suns comes to mind, highlighting Ellis’ struggles. Dirk Nowitzki can no longer carry the team at his age as shown by his disappointing year thus far, and if Ellis is unable to produce, the Mavericks look bound for an early exit. Being this close to the playoffs is not an ideal time to be trying to work out rotation and chemistry problems if you want a deep run in the playoffs and unfortunately those issues don’t seem to be going away.
Final Thought – Despite Rick Carlisle being one of the best coaches in the league, Dallas won’t work out their issues in time and bow in the first round.
San Antonio Spurs – currently 6th Seed in the Western Conference
The defending champion San Antonio Spurs have never won back-to-back titles, but that doesn’t mean anyone should be counting them out. Currently the number one ranked offense in the league, San Antonio has been on a tear lately, steam-rolling over teams like Oklahoma City, Memphis, and the Dallas Mavericks on their way to 13 wins in 16 games. Two straight trips to the finals the past two seasons had seemingly caught up with the Spurs as injuries began to pile up earlier in the year. Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard missed significant time throughout December but both players have bounced back admirably. This past month, Parker has averaged 18 points on 56 percent shooting while Kawhi Leonard is averaging 19 points, seven rebounds, and three steals per game. Despite the team clicking throughout March as a whole, the Spurs defense is still ranked 15th in the league, and with their three-point percentages down significantly from last year (35% on open threes as opposed to last season’s 40%), the Spurs will need to find that extra shooting touch to get through the playoffs.
Prediction – Never count out Coach Pop and the Spurs especially when they’re peaking at this point in the season. Conference finals appearance looks to be a decent bet.
Los Angeles Clippers – currently 5th seed in the Western Conference
The Portland Trail Blazers are currently leading their division which gives them an automatic place over the Clippers in the playoff seeding. However, record dictates home court advantage, so L.A. will have the edge if these two teams meet in the first round. Despite having what this writer considers the best pure point guard in the league in Chris Paul and the devastating frontcourt duo of Blake Griffin and ‘DeAndre the Giant’, the Clippers won’t be going far come playoff time. CP3 has had a fantastic year, even getting a nod from some in the media as an MVP candidate as he shouldered much of the load while Blake Griffin recovered from a staph infection. DeAndre Jordan has been a powerhouse inside the paint but is still a very one sided player and does not produce enough on the offensive end, highlighted by his dismal free-throw shooting. A glaring issue with this team is their failure to produce in half court sets. Teams around the league have worked out that if they can slow the Clippers down and turn them into a half court team, they struggle to get baskets consistently. Lob City looks fantastic and is part of the reason why the Clippers are normally atop the rankings when it comes to offensive efficiency, but slowing down the fast break dunks and lay ups stifles the Clippers creatively. On top of their poor execution in the half court, the Clippers rotation is awful. With former Six Man of the Year Jamal Crawford out with an injury, the main contributors off the Clipper bench are players like Austin Rivers, Glen Davis, Hedo Turkoglu, and Spencer Hawes. Can you see this squad beating the Spurs, Rockets, Grizzlies, or Warriors in a playoff series? Don't think so.
Final Thought – Despite having some of the best players in the league, the Clippers are a one trick pony. With no significant bench production outside of Jamal Crawford, a disappointing second-round exit looks imminent.
Portland Trail Blazers – currently 4th seed in the Western Conference
The Blazers recently clinched a playoff berth with a win over the Phoenix Suns and have been on a run of four wins straight. Boosted by the likes of Chris Kaman and Robin Lopez returning from injury, Portland is getting healthy at the right time. Since losing Wesley Matthews, the Blazers have been anything but convincing, however, dropping games to the lowly Magic and Heat and giving up a ton of points in the process. The Blazers have only won seven games without Matthews in the lineup, with Arron Afflalo struggling to be consistent in his new starting role. Consistency as a whole seems to be the biggest issue when it comes to Portland as their star point guard Damian Lillard can be lights out, or shoot the team out of games. Despite LaMarcus Aldridge’s ability to carry the scoring load on a nightly basis, recent defeats at the hands of the Grizzlies and the Warriors have shown Portland just isn't at the level to contend with the big names yet.
Final Thought – Portland could sneak into the second round on the back of some big nights from Lillard and Aldridge. Don’t expect a deep playoff run though.
Houston Rockets – currently 3rd in the Western Conference
In this writer’s opinion, James Harden is the MVP this season. The master of getting to the foul line, the Rockets are 30-5 in games where Harden shoots 10 or more free throws in a game. The superstar two-guard leads the league in WAR (wins above replacement) and is the key part of one of the most effective offenses in the league, focusing on corner threes and layups at the basket. Despite losing Dwight Howard for most of the season, Harden has put this team on his back, and with Josh Smith and Corey Brewer contributing big for this squad off the bench, Howard’s return will only boost the Rockets hopes at a run for the NBA Finals. The loss of Patrick Beverley is huge, however, as he is what makes the Rockets tick on the defensive side of the ball. To show how good Beverley is as a one-on-one defender, opposing players shoot just 26 percent in isolation situations. He is also a surprisingly solid shooter, hitting 38 percent from catch and shoot three pointers behind the arc. Despite the loss, the Rockets lead the league in three pointers made per game with 11.5 and are on track to break the NBA record of 10.8 held by the 2012-2013 New York Knicks. Although that shooting may be impacted, the likes of Pablo Prigioni and veteran Jason Terry should be able to shoulder enough of the load and take some of the ball handling duties away from Harden come playoffs.
Final Thought – The Rockets are so efficient on offense and with the return of Dwight Howard that will only help their title push. If they can stay healthy, expect a deep run from the Rockets.
Memphis Grizzlies – currently 2nd in the Western Conference
Despite looking fatigued and beat up over this last stretch, as well as injury concerns with Mike Conley and Tony Allen, Memphis is still considered a major player in the West. The Grizzlies offense has relied heavily on Marc Gasol as he is shooting the highest number of field goal attempts in his career with 13.3 per game. In turn, this has seen the Spanish big man become frustrated when the shot isn’t falling as well as fatigued with the heavy workload on both ends of the floor. Memphis has dropped seven of their last 14 games down the stretch with players like Jeff Green and Courtney Lee going cold. The question is if the Grizzlies can snap out of the shooting slump before the playoffs. Mike Conley, despite injury, has only averaged 14 points per game since January. It seems that the Memphis Grizzlies are trending the opposite way of their rivals San Antonio right now. With just under three weeks to break out of the slump, the Grizzlies have been too good all year to let it slip away easily.
Final Thought – A first-round exit wouldn’t be shocking the way Memphis is playing at the moment, they just seem too good to let that happen though.
Golden State Warriors – clinched 1st seed
What more can be said other than what a year for the Warriors? A franchise record in wins has led Golden State to their first division title since 1976. With MVP candidate Stephen Curry and Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Draymond Green, the Golden State Warriors are dangerous on both ends of the court. To put things in perspective, the Warriors are the 13th team to reach 60 wins in 73 games. Nine of the previous 12 teams won the NBA Championship. Golden State is far and ahead the favorites at this point, leading the league in points, assists, blocks and defensive efficiency. The sky is the limit for this squad and there seemingly is no weak link. With the deepest roster in the league, players like Leandro Barbosa and Shaun Livingston have come off the bench and been able to produce, as well as having Andre Iguodala and David Lee, two former All-Stars who could be starters on most NBA squads, the depth of the Warriors is unparalleled in the league. With the other seven teams in the conference still fighting it out for their playoff lives, Golden State has the luxury of taking nights off to rest players, having locked up the number one seed. Make no mistake, the Warriors are the real deal
Final Thought – NBA Finals or bust