Duke travels to Louisville, KY to face the Cardinals at noon on Saturday. It is setting up to be one of the best match ups of the college basketball season season. Duke is coming off two straight losses, and now looking to avoid a 3rd. Louisville lost a heartbreaker to North Carolina last weekend. But they reeled off a solid win against Virginia Tech on Tuesday. Coach K was looking to have his 1,000th win at Louisville, but that won’t be happening. The game will be a toss-up on deciding who wins. But here is a position by position preview of this week’s top 10 matchup in the ACC. I will be also using PER 40 stats which means that is what the player would average if they played the entire 40 minute game.

 Chris Jones Vs Tyus Jones- Chris Jones is coming off his best stretch of games after not starting - Long Beach State because of the flop against Kentucky. Pitino said that he is finally listening and finding teammates first before his own shot. He can make any shot on the court even with a defender in his face. Chris Jones is averaging 17.6 PPG, 5.2 TRB, 5.2 AST, 3.0 STL, and is shooting 35% from the field PER 40 minutes.

Tyus Jones is basically the opposite of Chris Jones. He does not show up in big games, and is a weak perimeter defender. First in seemed like he could put Duke on his back after his strong performances against Michigan State and Wisconsin. But, he couldn’t hold the guards of Miami last game which lead to a loss. Tyus Jones averages 13 PPG, 6.1 AST, 4.7 TRB, 2.1 STL, and is shooting 39% from the field PER 40 minutes.

The advantage goes to Chris Jones of Louisville. He is the best on ball defender in college basketball and is playing the best of his career. He is capable of shutting down Tyus Jones the entire game. This was a no brainer decision.

Terry Rozier - Quinn Cook- Rozier is arguably the most important player on the UofL team. He leads the team in scoring and is the go to scorer late. Rozier barely makes any mistakes during the game and is 2nd in the ACC in steals next to Chris Jones. Terry Rozier averages 22.3 PPG, 6.9 TRB, 2.9 AST, 2.9 STL, and is shooting 46% from the field PER 40 minutes.

Quinn Cook is the leader on this young Blue Devils team. He can be the vocal point of the offense when he needs to be. But he isn’t capable defensively to hold Rozier from getting his points. Quinn Cook averages 17.6 PPG, 3.6 AST, 3.4 TRB, 1.4 STL, and is shooting 47% from the field PER 40 minutes.

The advantage goes to Louisville’s Terry Rozier. He is playing like the best guard in the ACC and is outplaying superstar Montrezl Harrell. Cook won’t be able to hold Rozier defensively, also Duke has a horrible inside defense. This will be a matchup to exploit.

Wayne Blackshear - Justise Winslow- Blackshear is the weak link for the Cardinals. When he’s making his shots, he can’t miss. But lately he hasn’t been as good, but his defense makes up for his offensive struggles. Wayne Blackshear is averaging 16.1 PPG, 6.8 TRB, 2.2 STL, 1.9 AST, and is shooting 39% from the field PER 40 minutes.

Justise Winslow has been a bright spot for Duke. He is the best defensive player for Duke and arguably one of the better wing defender in the country. Winslow takes a lot of shots for Duke but they won’t come easy against Blackshear. Justise Winslow is averaging 17.2 PPG, 7.0 TRB, 3.1 AST, 1.3 STL, and is shooting 43% from the field PER 40 minutes.

The advantage goes to Justise Winslow of Duke. He is too good of a defender to not play well. Blackshear won’t get any easy shots and Winslow will just go right by him. Look for this to be a key matchup that won’t be talked about much.

Montrezl Harrell - Amile Jefferson- Montrezl Harrell is one of the leaders for POTY. But he hasn’t been up to par this past couple of games looking humanly. Harrell is a terror on the boards and isn’t afraid to dunk all over the defender. Montrezl Harrell is averaging 19.2 PPG, 11.3 TRB, 1.4 BLK, 1.2 STL and is shooting 58% from the field PER 40 minutes.

Amile Jefferson is also a bruiser who gets tons of rebounds. He is the least talked about player for Duke, and arguably one of the best. He doesn’t take a ton of shots but he is a good partner for Jahlil Okafor. Amile Jefferon averages 14.5 PPG, 13.4 RPG, 1.3 STL, 0.8 BLK, and is shooting 65% from the field PER 40 minutes.

The advantage goes to Montrezl Harrell of Louisville. He is a much polished player offensively and won’t hesitate to shoot a few 3’s to spread out the defense. Harrell is much stronger and will just body up Jefferson.

Mangok Mathiang - Jahlil Okafor- The starting spot has usually been split between Mathiang and Onuaku. But Mathiang has started the past few games and is playing fantastic. He is a consistant scorer in the paint when Harrell receives double teams. Mangok Mathiang averages 5.7 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 2.8 BLK, 1.3 STL, and is shooting 45% from the field PER 40 minutes.

Jahlil Okafor is a complete monster. He has been arguably the best player in the country so far and for good reason. Despite his defensive woes, he has incredible touch around the basket. Jahlil Okafor is averaging 25.6 PPG, 12.7 RPG, 2.2 BLK, 1.2 STL and is shooting a fantastic 66% from the field PER 40 minutes.

The overwhelming advantage goes to Jahlil Okafor of Duke. He will have a field day against Mathiang unless Pitino starts Onuaku. Okafor makes every shot around the rim and can block a few. The only way Louisville can hope to exploit him is if they use high pick and rolls and bring him away from the basket.

Louisville Bench - Duke Bench- Neither teams really rely on their bench. But Duke has former starter Rasheed Sulaimon coming off the bench who is a capable scorer and defender. Louisville plays Chinanu Onuaku, Anton Gill, Quentin Snider, and Shaqquan Aaron the most off the bench. If UofL wants bench production, Aaron has to be hitting his shots from beyond the arc. Duke dosent have many big man coming off the bench that can give them consistant minutes unlike Louisville. That could be the tipping point.

The advantage goes to Duke. They have Sulaimon, Allen, Jones, and Plumlee coming off the bench. Despite being line in the big man postion, Sulaimon could be an X-factor for Duke. If Plumlee can play descent then the Blue Devils will be able to not play Okafor heavy minutes.

The last time both teams met was in 2013 when Louisville knocked off the Blue Devils to reach the Final Four. It’s a matchup against HOF coaches in Coach K and Rick Pitino. Both teams will be looking for a signature win on Saturday afternoon. I predict that Louisville defeats Duke to a score of 75-68. Duke’s defense is too bad for Louisville not get easy buckets at the win to decide the game.