Welcome to the seventh edition of VAVEL Bracketology here in the 2014-15 NCAA Division 1 College Basketball season. This is the third of our bi-weekly posts now that we are into conference play. It will eventually turn into a daily post once the conference tournaments start in late February all the way through Selection Sunday.
Our bracket will be a little different than most of the others that you will see around the internet. This one will not be a projection of what the bracket will look like in March but will be a look at what the tournament would look like if it were to start tomorrow. We rate our teams using a formula that rewards them for quality wins and punishes them for bad losses.
The biggest difference from our college football formula is that we do not take the total rating given to a team, we break it down to a “per-game” number. We also factor in a team’s winning percentage as well as the average “per-game” mark from that school’s conference.
If you have any questions about how the formula works or would like some clarification from the creator feel free to e-mail [email protected]. You can follow along with the calculation of the numbers at our VAVEL Bracketology page right here.
(Records updated through Thursday, January 29th)
We will start with a look at the play-in games taking place in Dayton, Ohio on March 17th and 18th.
March 17th
Army (14-6) vs. Texas Southern (9-11) for the Midwest #16 Seed
Tulsa (15-5) vs. Wyoming (17-4) for the East #13 Seed
March 18th
St. Francis-NY (13-9) vs. New Mexico State (12-10) for the East #16 Seed
Oklahoma State (14-6) vs. Washington (14-6) for the South #12 Seed
Midwest Regional (#1; Cleveland, Ohio)
March 19th in Louisville, Kentucky
#1 Kentucky (20-0, SEC Champion)
#16 Winner of Army/Texas Southern
#8 Dayton (16-4, At-Large)
#9 San Diego State (16-5, At-Large)
March 19th in Portland, Oregon
#4 Maryland (18-4, At-Large)
#13 Wofford (17-5, Southern Champion)
#5 Utah (16-4, At-Large)
#12 Oklahoma (13-7, At-Large)
March 19th in Jacksonville, Florida
#3 Duke (17-3, At-Large)
#14 Georgia State (14-7, Sun Belt Champion)
#6 Providence (16-5, At-Large)
#11 Michigan State (14-7, At-Large)
March 19th in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
#2 Villanova (18-2, Big East Champion)
#15 North Carolina Central (16-5, Mid-Eastern Champion)
#7 Cincinnati (15-5, At-Large)
#10 Green Bay (17-4, Horizon League Champion)
East Regional (#2; Syracuse, New York)
March 20th in Charlotte, North Carolina
#1 Virginia (19-0, ACC Champion)
#16 Winner of St. Francis-NY/New Mexico State
#8 Butler (15-6, At-Large)
#9 Stanford (15-5, At-Large)
March 19th in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
#4 West Virginia (17-3, At-Large)
#13 Winner of Tulsa/Wyoming
#5 Arkansas (16-4, At-Large)
#12 Stephen F. Austin (17-3, Southland Champion)
March 20th in Columbus, Ohio
#3 Notre Dame (20-2, At-Large)
#14 Eastern Washington (15-5, Big Sky Champion)
#6 LSU (16-4, At-Large)
#11 Evansville (16-5, At-Large)
March 20th in Charlotte, North Carolina
#2 Virginia Commonwealth (17-3, Atlantic 10 Champion)
#15 Yale (13-6, Ivy League Champion)
#7 Baylor (15-5, At-Large)
#10 Xavier (14-7, At-Large)
South Regional (#3; Houston, Texas)
March 20th in Omaha, Nebraska
#1 Kansas (17-3, Big 12 Champion)
#16 Florida Gulf Coast (15-7, Atlantic Sun Champion)
#8 Old Dominion (16-4, Conference USA Champion)
#9 Texas A&M (14-5, At-Large)
March 20th in Columbus, Ohio
#4 Northern Iowa (19-2, At-Large)
#13 Kent State (15-5, Mid-American Champion)
#5 Colorado State (18-3, Mountain West Champion)
#12 Winner of Oklahoma State/Washington
March 19th in Jacksonville, Florida
#3 North Carolina (17-4, At-Large)
#14 Iona (15-6, Metro Atlantic Champion)
#6 SMU (17-4, American Champion)
#11 Murray State (18-4, At-Large)
March 20th in Omaha, Nebraska
#2 Wisconsin (18-2, Big Ten Champion)
#15 South Dakota State (16-7, Summit League Champion)
#7 Georgia (14-5, At-Large)
#10 Saint Mary’s (17-4, At-Large)
West Regional (#4; Los Angeles, California)
March 19th in Portland, Oregon
#1 Arizona (19-2, Pac-12 Champion)
#16 Stony Brook (15-8, America East Champion)
#8 Georgetown (14-6, At-Large)
#9 Indiana (15-6, At-Large)
March 20th in Seattle, Washington
#4 Louisville (17-3, At-Large)
#13 High Point (17-5, Big South Champion)
#5 Iowa State (15-4, At-Large)
#12 Seton Hall (14-6, At-Large)
March 19th in Louisville, Kentucky
#3 Wichita State (19-2, Missouri Valley Champion)
#14 UC Davis (15-4, Big West Champion)
#6 Ohio State (17-5, At-Large)
#11 Miami-Florida (14-6, At-Large)
March 20th in Seattle, Washington
#2 Gonzaga (21-1, West Coast Champion)
#15 William & Mary (13-7, Colonial Champion)
#7 Texas (14-6, At-Large)
#10 Davidson (14-4, At-Large)
LAST FOUR IN:
Oklahoma State (14-6)
Washington (14-6)
Tulsa (15-5)
Wyoming (17-4)
FIRST FOUR OUT:
Ole Miss (13-7)
George Washington (16-5)
Iowa (13-7)
Valparaiso (19-4)
NEXT FOUR OUT:
BYU (16-7)
Rhode Island (14-5)
NC State (13-9)
Memphis (13-7)
CONFERENCE BREAKDOWN:
Big 12 (7)
ACC (6)
Big East (6)
Big Ten (5)
SEC (5)
Pac-12 (4)
Atlantic 10 (3)
Missouri Valley (3)
Mountain West (3)
American (2)
Conference USA (2)
West Coast (2)
INS AND OUTS (Comparing to 1/27 Bracketology)
At-Large OUT
George Washington
NC State
Ole Miss
At-Large IN
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Tulsa
Champions OUT
Northeastern (Colonial)
Central Michigan (Mid-American Conference)
Champions IN
William & Mary (Colonial)
Kent State (Mid-American Conference)