The Arizona Wildcats are entering the third season under Rich Rodriguez as a program on the up. Rodriguez has led the team to consecutive 8-5 seasons, highlighted by an exciting win over USC in 2012, and a thumping victory over Oregon in 2013, as well as winning Bowl games each season. Yet in a somewhat unusual twist of fate, they could play their best football yet under Rodriguez and still see their record stagnate, or even regress, such is the strength of the Pac-12 at this point in time.

2013 Arizona Wildcats Season

Arizona swept a straightforward non-conference slate before running into trouble on the road, losing at both Washington and USC. November defeats at home against UCLA, which was expected, and Washington State, which wasn’t, were followed by the hugely impressive home win over Oregon. Unfortunately the Wildcats finished the regular season with a humbling defeat in Tempe against their rivals Arizona State.

Offense

The strongest aspect of the Wildcats offense in 2014 promises to be the receiver unit, where senior WR Austin Hill returns after missing the entire 2013 season with an ACL injury. Hill was terrific playing from the slot in 2012, racking up 81 receptions, 1364 yards (16.8 avg) and 11 touchdowns. In his absence in 2013, freshmen Nate Philips and Samajie Grant were the leading receivers and will be expected to contribute more as sophomores. Add in Cayleb Jones (once of Texas) and DaVonte’ Neal (once of Notre Dame), two high profile WR recruits from the 2012 class who are eligible after transferring a year ago, and Arizona have a surplus of receiving options.

At running back Arizona face the impossible task of replacing Ka’Deem Carey, an outstanding collegiate rusher with elite vision, and must do so without an experienced option waiting in the wings. However the Rich Rodriguez offense is always capable of being productive on the ground, they won’t find a new Carey, but whoever is selected to carry the load will be doing so in a productive system and behind an experienced and very capable offensive line. Arizona returns three year starters at both tackle spots in Mickey Baucus and Fabbians Ebbele, and have experienced players on the interior of the line.

The up-tempo spread offense that Rodriguez runs is exciting, highly productive and variable. It can be run heavy, as it was last season when they ran the ball 62.8% of the time, with Carey and QB B.J. Denker forming a potent ground attack, or it can be more balanced, as it was in 2012 when they ran the ball just 50.3% of the time. Matt Scott was the quarterback in 2012 and was a superior passer to Denker, thus the balanced offense made more sense. Arizona will have a new starting quarterback for the third straight season and as of right now it seems to be a wide open competition; much will depend on what style of offense Rodriquez wants to run in 2014. If it’s to be as run oriented as last season then Anu Solomon may be the best bet, however Jesse Scroggins would suit a more balanced attack, while former Texas transfer Connor Brewer is the best pure passer of the bunch and would make the best use of the strong receiver unit.

Defense

Veteran Defensive Coordinator Jeff Casteel and Rich Rodriguez were reunited in Tuscon in 2012, having previously worked successfully together at West Virgina. Casteel immediately set about installing his 3-3-5 stack defense, which requires plenty of speed and smart, versatile players in key positions, both of which the 2014 Wildcats possess, though they lack experience and look undersized on the defensive line.

In Casteel’s first season they struggled, conceding 34.3 points and 485.7 yards per game, and registering just 16 sacks and 12 interceptions, while allowing nine opponents to exceed 30 points. However it was a different story last season when they conceded 24.7 points and 405.3 yards per game, registered 24 sacks and 18 interceptions, and allowed just four teams to exceed 30 points.

They return plenty of experience and talent in the secondary, where spur Tra'Mayne Bondurant should be one of the standout defenders in the Pac-12. With experience of CB Jonathan McKnight, FS Jourdon Grandson and bandit Jared Tevis providing capable coverage behind him, Bondurant is costless to costlesslance in his hybrid role, allowing him to consistently get to, and make plays upon the ball.

However a dearth of experience in the front six could undermine the secondaries strength, unless the new starters can swiftly find their feet. Scooby Wright impressed as a freshman starter in 2013 and will man the crucial MLB berth, providing guidance to the less experienced players alongside him. It’s a similar pattern on the defensive line where DE Reggie Gilbert is the sole returning starter and will have to be the leader for a young and mostly undersized line. Heralded incoming freshman Marcus Griffin, and returning missionaries Sani Fuimaono and Aiulua Fanene have the desired size, but it’s a lot to ask to expect them to contribute immediately.

Special Teams

Special teams haven’t been a strong point under Rodriguez and there is little reason to expect that to change given they will largely be using the same personnel. There will be a new and untried kicker but Drew Riggleman returns as the starting punter, he has a big enough leg and recorded a longest gain of 61 yards, but the coverage unit struggled leaving him with an average gain of just 40.1 yards.

2014 Season Outlook

The season starts well enough with games against UNLV, UTSA and Nevada, before a home match against Cal to open conference play, but then the difficulty level really ramps up. Arizona must travel to face both Oregon and UCLA, two of the strongest teams in the country, and also face road trips against Washington State and Utah, neither of whom will be a pushover. They do host USC, Washington and Arizona State in Tuscon; the Wildcats will have to make the most of their home-field advantage.

Rich Rodriguez has done an impressive job so far in Tuscon, the Wildcats play an exciting brand of football and have been a factor in an increasingly competitive Pac-12. However progress may look much the same as stagnation in 2014, another 8 win season would definitely be acceptable given the strength of their conference schedule. Under Rodriguez, Arizona have developed a penchant for taking at least one signature victory per season, how they would like that to come against ASU this time around.