At this time each year it always seems that a North Carolina team loaded with athletically gifted players is on the verge of breaking out, however, the whole never quite matches the sum of the parts. The fans in Chapel Hill are still waiting for that break out season. This season is no different. The Tar Heels return a lot of physically talented starters, incorporate some terrific new talent, and in head coach Larry Fedora’s third season will finally have a quarterback (regardless of which one wins the job) who suits the offense.
2013 North Carolina Tar Heels Season
North Carolina got off to an awful start in 2013, losing five of the first six matches, including a humbling 31-55 home loss against in-state rival East Carolina, a match in which the Pirates were far and away the better team. The Tar Heels rebounded somewhat, winning six of the last seven games, including victories over rivals N.C. State and Virginia, and overcame the Bearcats in the Belk Bowl. The Tar Heels played better in the second half of the campaign, as they were stouter on defense. In addition, Marquise Williams took over from the injured Bryn Renner, which led to more dynamic play from the quarterback position. However, they also faced weaker opponents in the second half of the season, and lost to Duke, the strongest team they faced during that run of games. It is impossible to say whether weaker opposition or better play was the main driving force behind their change of fortunes.
Offense
Larry Fedora runs an exciting and productive no-huddle spread offense. It has been prolific in the past and worked wonders at Southern Miss, but has yet to fully take off in Chapel Hill. Part of the reason for that may have been an imperfect match at quarterback with Bryn Renner, who was easily the best passer on the roster, but lacked the athleticism that Fedora has tended to prefer at the position. After Renner’s injury, Marquise Williams took over and threw for 1,698 yards, 15 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions, but with just a 58.1% completion percentage. Take out the Old Dominion game and that falls to 1,289 yards, 10 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, and a lowly 55.8% completion percentage. Hardly starting caliber passing numbers, but Williams ran for 536 yards and 6 touchdowns and brought the best out of the talent at running back. Marquise Williams possesses the dynamism that makes this offense tick and had the offense rolling along nicely by the end of the season, but he must make real strides as a passer if he is to get this offense operating at its full potential. He also has to fight off the challenge of redshirt freshman Mitch Trubisky, who is another dual threat option and potentially the better passer.
Even after the departure of star tight end Eric Ebron, the Tar Heels return plenty of talent at the skill positions. Possessing prototypical size for the position, wide receiver Quinshad Davis has recorded 109 catches for 1506 yards and 15 touchdowns through his first two seasons, while also passing for two touchdowns on trick plays. Davis is ready to carry the load in Ebron’s absence, along with sophomore slot receiver and punt return sensation Ryan Switzer.
Sophomore running back T.J. Logan finished his freshman season strong with 533 yards (5.7 average) and 4 touchdowns on the ground, as well as showing promise as a receiver, and will lead an athletic group of running backs that includes 5-star freshman Elijah Hood. The offensive line lost starters at left tackle and center, but they have talented options to replace them. There will be a bedding in period and they will likely struggle against a fearsome Clemson defensive line early in the season.
Defense
Dan Disch and Vic Koenning oversee an aggressive and fast 4-2-5 defense that can generate pressure and cover downfield, but has struggled to stop the run; an issue that looks likely to continue in 2014. Only one full time starter on the line returns in defensive tackle Ethan Farmer. While there is plenty of experience waiting in the wings, few of the potential starters possess the requisite girth to clog up the line, and two who did, Shawn Underwood and Greg Webb, have left the program.
Replacing defensive end Kareem Martin and his 11.5 sacks won’t be easy, but whoever gets the start will be playing opposite star BANDIT (a hybrid defensive end/linebacker role) Norkeithus Otis, who registered 8.5 sacks as a junior. Led by Travis Hughes, all of the more conventional linebackers return from 2013, and the unit promises to be the strong point of the defense. However, the same cannot be said of the secondary where they have good options at safety and RAM (a hybrid safety/linebacker role), but have a dearth of experience returning at cornerback. Actually, that is not quite true as Tim Scott was a starting corner for most of 2013, but has moved to costless safety to try and replace the playmaking talents of Tre Boston, leaving the Tar Heels fielding two new starting corners in 2014.
Special Teams
Punter Tommy Hibbard is one of the best in college football, but kicker Thomas Moore, accurate inside 40 yards, could only manage 1 from 5 on kicks of more than 40 yards, which simply is not good enough. The Tar Heels returned a remarkable seven kicks for touchdowns in 2013, with Switzer scoring five from punts, and Logan scoring two from kicks.
2014 Season Outlook
The out of conference schedule is not a walk over but it is not awful either, opening with winnable matches in Chapel Hill against Liberty and San Diego State, but traveling to play East Carolina and Notre Dame, neither of whom has reason to fear the Tar Heels. The conference slate is of a similarly mixed nature; they avoid FSU, the strongest team in the conference, but have to travel to play Clemson. Most of the main contenders for the Coastal conference come to Chapel Hill, which suits the Tar Heels, but they do face testing trips to play Duke and Miami.
Momentum can be crucial in sport and Larry Fedora will be keen to capitalize on the momentum generated by a strong finish to 2013, albeit against a relatively weak slate, with a pair of convincing victories to start the season. Do that, and they can travel to face East Carolina in Greenville full of confidence. A victory there will see a gifted Tar Heels roster reach conference play with all the momentum a team can carry, though a visit to Death Valley is likely to prove a momentum killer. The offense is full of playmaking talent and they have a pair of quarterbacks who seem well suited to it, so long as the Tar Heels can overcome some key losses on the defense, the Tar Heels will be there or thereabouts in the Coastal division this year.