Duck Dynasty: Washington Looks To Break Skid Against Oregon

Washington Huskies (5-1, 1-1 Pac-12) @ #9 Oregon Ducks (5-1, 2-1 Pac-12)

Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR

October 18, 2014

Kickoff: 8:00 pm ET

TV: Fox Sports 1

Series History

107th Meeting All-Time (Washington leads series 58-43, 5 ties)

56th Meeting All-Time in Oregon (Washington leads series 27-25, 3 ties)

2014 Team Statistics:

Washington (5-1)

Points Scored: 209 (34.8 per game)

Points Allowed: 128 (21.3 per game)

Offense:

Completions/Attempts: 96 of 158 (60.8%)

Passing Yards: 1,086 (181.0 per game)

Carries: 280 (46.7 per game)

Rushing Yards: 1,149 (191.5 per game)

Turnovers: 1 (0.2 per game)

Opponents:

Completions/Attempts: 148 of 230 (64.3%)

Passing Yards: 1,648 (274.7 per game)

Carries: 229 (38.2 per game)

Rushing Yards: 706 (117.7 per game)

Turnovers: 15 (2.5 per game)

Play Calling:

Pass: 36.1%

Rush: 63.9%

Oregon (5-1)

Points Scored: 260 (43.3 per game)

Points Allowed: 146 (24.3 per game)

Offense:

Completions/Attempts: 126 of 176 (71.6%)

Passing Yards: 1,832 (305.3 per game)

Carries: 239 (39.8 per game)

Rushing Yards: 1,303 (217.2 per game)

Turnovers: 3 (0.5 per game)

Opponents:

Completions/Attempts: 156 of 246 (63.4%)

Passing Yards: 1,773 (295,5 per game)

Carries: 242 (40.3 per game)

Rushing Yards: 1,049 (174.8 per game)

Turnovers: 12 (2.0 per game)

Play Calling:

Pass: 42.4%

Rush: 57.6%

One of the biggest rivalries in the Pac-12 takes place on Saturday at Autzen Stadium as the Washington Huskies (5-1) travel down I-5 to Eugene to face off with the Oregon Ducks (5-1). The game can be seen starting at 8:00 pm ET on Fox Sports 1. This series has been very one sided during the past decade as the Oregon Ducks have whipped on Washington for ten consecutive years.

The last time that the Washington Huskies beat Oregon was on November 1, 2003 when Shelton Sampson ran for three touchdowns on six carries and Casey Paus threw for another two in a 42-10 Huskies victory at Husky Stadium. Oregon lead 10-0 after the first quarter before Washington stormed back with 42 unanswered points to put them within a win of becoming bowl eligible that season.

You only have to go back one more year to find the last time that Washington won at Autzen Stadium. That was a 42-14 win on November 16, 2002. Cody Pickett completed 26-of-37 passes for 316 yards and four touchdowns to lead the Dawgs over the 23rd-ranked Ducks. Rich Alexis added two more scores on the ground as well as 122 yards rushing. Reggie Williams came within one catch of tying the single game receptions record of 15, which was set by his teammate Braxton Cleman just a month earlier.

Since then though, it has been all Oregon. The Ducks have outscored Washington 436-182 in the last ten years with the closest game being a 17-point Oregon win in 2011. It is more than just on the scoreboard as you can see from these combined stats in the last ten meeting between the two schools:

 This season’s Washington Husky team is one of the best they have had in recent times, especially on the defensive side of the ball. The front seven has at four players who will play in the NFL in Hau’oli Kikaha, Danny Shelton, John Timu and All-America candidate Shaq Thompson. The defense is 4th in the conference in total defense allowing 392 yards per game which is actually 20 more yards per game than the offense has gained in 2014.

The biggest key to the Huskies defensive success has been forcing turnovers. Through six game, the Washington defense has forced 15 turnovers ranking them tied for 14th in the country. Their turnover margin is top in the nation with a +14, the offense has only given up the ball once in six games. That is the first key for Washington if they want to beat Oregon; force turnovers.

That will be easier said than especially against this current crop of Oregon Ducks. Turnovers have plagued this team over the past few with 107 in the last 72 games; this season Oregon has only committed three turnovers including two in the loss to the Arizona Wildcats just 15 days ago. If there is any solace for Washington, it will be that all of the Duck turnovers have been fumbles. Washington has 10 fumble recoveries on the season.

Another big key for Washington going into the game will be controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Establishing and maintaining the running attack will be very important for Washington but just as important is controlling the line of scrimmage on the defensive side of the ball.

Since 2009 when Chip Kelly took over at Oregon, the football program has played 72 games. In those 72 games, they have a record of 62-10. Let’s take a look at the rushing statistics for both Oregon and their opponents in both wins and losses for the Ducks over this time period:

As you can see in the table, Oregon’s rushing number drop significantly in their losses. Moreover, the rushing numbers for the opponents improve drastically. One of the other crazy numbers is the percentage in play calling for Oregon in their wins as opposed to their losses.

Not only that though, but in the 10 games that Oregon has lost, their opponents have run the ball 65.4% of the time. Washington’s current play-calling breakdown shows that they have run the ball 63.9% of the time in 2014 averaging 46.7 carries per game for 191.5 yards. In fact, Arizona ran the ball 64% of the time in their win just two weeks ago at Autzen Stadium.

Perhaps the biggest thing to look for if Washington is to win this game will be converting their third downs as well as stopping Oregon’s conversion attempts. The Oregon Ducks have done very well in their third down conversions so far in 2014 having converted on 55% of their chances (38-of-69). That number is very poor in their losses though, in their 10 losses since 2009, Oregon has converted on just 36% (49-of-138) of their third downs. Washington’s defense is doing a very good job holding opponents to just a 35% conversion rate (32-of-92).

On the offensive side of the ball, Washington has struggled a bit in their third down conversions with a percentage of just 41% (38-of-93). That is one thing they will need to improve on as opponents in Oregon losses since 2009 have converted 52% of their third down opportunities. Every third down conversion is a chance to kill another two minutes of time off the clock, thus keeping Oregon’s high powered offense off the field.

Washington enters the game as a three-touchdown underdog. The task will not be easy but it can be done.

Projected Starters:

Prediction: Washington Huskies 42, Oregon Ducks 31. Chris Petersen has beaten Oregon once before and this time he is coaching a team that has much superior talent. Washington shocks the world. Find out LIVE with us at VAVEL USA, our coverage will start at 6:00 pm ET on Saturday.