#1: Alabama -  #4: Ohio State. The committee decided that Ohio State’s decisive win over Wisconsin trumps either Baylor (despite Baylor being rated higher than OSU in the AP poll) or TCU. The Buckeyes are 0-10 versus the SEC in bowl games, and Alabama is on a Mission from Mike Slive to bring home the title. Bet Alabama heavy.

Prediction: Alabama 44-Ohio State 10.

#2: Oregon vs. #3: Florida State. The committee is making Florida State an underdog for the first time in a long time and it’s well deserved. If Florida State is going to beat Oregon, they’re going to have to play a flawless game on offense and get some help on defense in the form of fumbles. Oregon seems to be better than the Seminoles in every phase of the game. But Florida State is very lucky, or has been up until now.

Prediction: Oregon 35-Florida State 27.

What did the committee screw up? It seems very indefensible to leave both TCU and Baylor out of the playoff final four. If they wanted to penalize TCU for losing a close one to Baylor, that's fine, but Baylor clearly played (and did better) a tougher schedule than Ohio State did. The committee is saying that “Baylor’s non-conference schedule was weak as compared to OSU.” This is right, but Ohio State didn’t play any tough schools in their non-conference schedule either. A 6-6 Virginia Tech team was their best non-conference game and they lost it in Columbus. Ultimately, they unfairly penalized the Big 12 for not having a title game and overrated Ohio State’s dismantling of Wisconsin in their title game. Simple as that.

Other major bowl games:

Fiesta Bowl: Boise State - Arizona. The Pac-12 gets a second team in and faces the Group of Five “champ” Boise State. Arizona will be looking to make up for an embarrassing Pac-12 title game and Boise State will be looking to build credibility for their program. Arizona is just too good across the board and Chris Peterson is in Seattle.

Prediction: Arizona 40-Boise State 17.

Cotton Bowl: Baylor - Michigan State. On one side of the ball, it will be the irresistible force (Baylor’s offense) - the immovable object (Michigan State’s defense). On the other side of the coin it will be the resistible force - the movable object. Ultimately this will come down to how many turnovers the Michigan State offense has.

Prediction: Baylor 28-Michigan State 24.

Peach Bowl: TCU - Ole Miss. A good, old fashioned shoot out. Neither team will play a lick of defense and neither team will care to. Ole Miss has the edge from the more difficult schedule and better overall talent. TCU might be the hotter team though. Freeze and the Ole Miss staff will look that West Virginia game tape to see how the mountaineers slowed them down. 

Prediction: Ole Miss 38-TCU 31.

Orange Bowl: Mississippi State - Georgia Tech. The Bulldogs will want to keep this from becoming a shoot out, the Yellow Jackets will hope to exploit a team more bored than anything else. Expect some fireworks and expect Dak Prescott to stay in school another season.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 37-Mississippi State 28.