Where is the league heading headed out of 2013 and into 2014? A good question. The Seahawks’ utter destruction of the Broncos in the Super Bowl has of course led to the rise of copycats all copying the wrong plan: a stout defense plus a tough running game for a “ground and pound” attack which suffocates all opponents. Seattle did have a great defense and a very good rushing attack (4th in the NFL last regular season). They also had an explosive passing attack which isn’t mentioned often. They had over 50 passing plays of 20 yards or more, which is more than the Patriots, Cowboys, Colts and Panthers did. They had the 2nd highest yards per passing play in the NFL last season also (8.4). They had an explosive and productive team in most facets of the game in 2013, but what they didn’t have was a lot of stars on offense. They made up for this with a great coaching staff who knew how to maximize their players’ value on both sides of the ball. So, of course, what has happened in this offseason? Teams have overpayed and overdrafted any short, winning QBs that they can get their hands on (Manziel) and any oversized or physical CBs especially if they’re linked to Seattle (Talib, Thurmond, Browner just to name a few) hoping to catch yesterday’s lightning in a bottle for tomorrow. This rarely works of course and the teams in 2014 that will be successful will be the ones who copy the Seahawks in the right way and maximize the value of their players in the scheme that they’re running. The teams that won’t be successful are the ones that think that they’re still in 2012 or 13. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are perfectly fine letting Marshawn Lynch hold out since they feel that they can easily replace his production.
Where is the league heading? Charlie Weis recently opined that “dropback QBs have been exposed.” It’s curious that Charlie would think this considering his success with dropback QBs in the NFL and college football. Is he right? Absolutely not. The top five rushing QBs in 2013 averaged 93 carries on the season for 542 yards. Only two of them (Russell Wilson and Kaepernick) finished in the top 10 of QB rating. The playoff starting QBs combined for an average of just over half of that (51 carries) and this stat was skewed by Newton, Wilson and Kaepernick. A QB in the NFL has to be able to scramble around and get a quick few yards if nothing else is available, but the idea that the league is becoming one of “running QBs” has been a meme that been popular since the days of Randall Cunningham. Yet it never happens. Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson are the prototype for the NFL’s future: QBs who can scramble to buy time, run when there’s nothing else available (usually), but will drop back and throw 8-9 times out of 10. You will see more and more designed run for younger QB thanks to the rise of the option/spread offenses in college, but ask Robert Griffin III about being in an offense that calls a lot of designed runs for the QB. He’s asked new coach Jay Gruden to limit those plays because his body won’t survive long as a running QB.
Defensively, the league is headed in one direction: copying Seattle’s LEO based defense. This defense is nominally a 4 front defense, but one of the end can be a stand up tweener called a LEO. It many ways it’s akin to a 3-4 1 gap attack where the 5 tech (defensive end) and 1 gap (interior defensive tackle) tie up as many blockers as they can while the LEO on the edge can choose his gap in which to attack. Seattle will also line up in a normal 3 front or standard 4 front, but more and more the LEO is becoming the base set. Two seasons ago, only Seattle ran this defense. Last year, Jacksonville (under former Seattle defensive boss Gus Bradley) also ran it. Now at least 7 other teams will be experimenting with it (New England, Denver, Washington, Atlanta, Baltimore, Green Bay and Philadelphia). And besides Seattle’s results with it, why is this becoming popular? It’s because of two developments in college as well: defensive ends in college are becoming taller, thinner and faster (thus making them less of a fit in a standard 4 Front End spot or a 5 Tech End spot in a 3-4) and defensive tackles are becoming heavier, stronger and less mobile (thanks to the SEC’s focus on run stopping and cycling DTs in and out). This isn’t to say that you won’t find any Bruce Smith or Warren Sapps in future drafts, as you will. However, you’re far more likely to find more one dimensional prospects who are all speed or are all strength. This change has been happening over the last decade and they’ve been funneled-through training and coaching-into fitting a 3 front defense. Consider the LEO an evolution of the 3 front: a 3-1-3 defense where the front 3 push the pocket back and the 1 is a smart attacker who has the speed to delay blitz every play. With the right talent, it’s a formidable defense to try and face. Ask Peyton Manning.
Who Will Rise And Why:
There are many factors, some obvious and not, which drive a team’s rise from the depths of a poor NFL season, but five stand out.
1-Replacing The Head Coach: A poor team might be one with a smart coach who understands the league, but it’s very rare and usually requires a major injury to the QB to happen.
2-Replacing More Than Six Starters: If you’re not winning with your roster, you’re not going to much any worse if you slash and burn your important starters.
3-Going From A 1st Place Schedule To A 4th place One: A lot of teams look better than they are thanks to this, and a lot of division winners get exposed as frauds when they go from a 4th place schedule to a 1st.
4-Finishing With A More Than -10 +/- In Turnovers: Turnovers happen to bad teams, but they also happen to unlucky ones. Tipped balls in the air and fumbles which squirt around are hardly an indication of skill.
5-Number Of Missed Games In 2013: This is self explanatory, as if a team lost more than 40 games by a projected starter to injury in 2013, they’ll get listed.
Here is the list of the teams who finished with six or less wins in 2013: Houston, Washington, Tampa Bay, Oakland, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Atlanta, Minnesota and Buffalo. For a team to get strong consideration for making a jump, they would have to hit at least three out of five of these factors. So, let’s see who qualifies for each one.
#1: Houston, Washington, Tampa, Cleveland and Minnesota all replaced their head coaches.
#2: Washington (9), Tampa (6), Cleveland (9) and Atlanta (6) replaced six or more starters. Some rookies/new players might beat out older ones during camp/preseason, but that probably won’t be as much.
#3: Only Washington and Atlanta won their division in 2012 to see them finish last in 2013.
#4: Only Houston (-20) and Minnesota (-12) finished with a -10 +/- in turnovers in 2013.
#5: Houston (49), Jacksonville (49), Oakland (49), Minnesota (57), Tampa (70) and Atlanta (74) all saw more than 40 missed starter games in 2013.
These factors lead to the following assumptions about these nine teams that finished in the basement in 2013:
1-Washington and Atlanta will see the biggest jumps, so expect a 4-6 win improvement barring injuries. Washington will mainly see the benefits of casting off the yoke of Mike Shanahan, who had emotionally ground that roster into depression. Atlanta suffered so many injuries to key players that just being there will see them improve dramatically.
2-Minnesota, Tampa and Houston will see the next biggest jumps (barring injuries again). Expect an improvement of 2-4 games each.
3-Cleveland should see minimal improvement. 1 game at most.
4-Oakland, Jacksonville and Buffalo shouldn’t see any improvement at all. Buffalo might be an exception to this list because they are essentially getting EJ Manuel back after an injury plagued 2013 season.
Who Will Fall And Why:
The factors to be considered:
1-High +/- Turnover Rate: A +10 or higher +/- rating. These rates are almost always unsustainable, unless the defense is coached to go after turnovers (see the Rex Ryan/Chuck Pagano Ravens’ defenses or LeBeau’s Blitzburgh defenses). And they require a well coached offense to limit their own turnovers.
2-High Recovery Of Their Own Fumbles: A 70% or higher recovery rate. This factor is a measure of pure luck. There’s almost no way to coach teams to reduce how many fumbles that they lose.
3-High Number Of Non-offensive Touchdowns: More than 5 non-offensive touchdowns. This is another factor of pure luck.
4-High Number Of Lost Starters: More than 6 starters replaced. Michael Lombardi calls this “the disease of me.” Super Bowl winning teams (and other good teams) often lose starters who see their chance to trade their team’s success for a big payday.
5-Low Number Of Projected Starters Injured: Less than 30 missed games by projected starters. Injuries happen and there’s almost no way to prevent them, so this is another factor of luck.
6-Playing A 4th place Schedule. As explained in the previous section.
Let’s see who qualifies for each one.
#1: Seattle (+20), Kansas City (+18), Indianapolis (+13), San Francisco (+12), Philadelphia (+12), and Carolina (+11)
#2: Indianapolis (71%),
#3: Cincy (7), Kansas City (11), San Francisco (5), Denver (5)
#4: Denver (6-7), Carolina (6)
#5: Kansas City (22), Philadelphia (29).
#6: Kansas City, Philadelphia
These factors lead to the following assumptions about these 12 playoff teams in 2013:
1-New England and Denver should see little to no drop off.
2-Kansas City shouldn’t be expected to make the playoffs.
3-Philadelphia will struggle to make the playoffs.
4-Cincy will badly miss both coordinators and drop 2-4 wins.
Win Distribution:
13 wins:
New England (the Vegas line: 10.5): Take the over heavy. The Pats had two problems last year (besides injuries), 1-they didn’t have a WR or TE who scared anyone and 2-If Talib struggled, no one was scared of their DBs. Revis changes the equation for the #2 spot and costlesss up the help coverage everywhere else. The latest on Gronk is that he’ll be healthy for week 1, and that makes their offense dangerous. Factor in a healthy Vollmer, Wilfolk and Amendola and this team should be the cream of the AFC.
Green Bay (the Vegas line: 10): Bet the over heavy. Green Bay had a fine offense last season and a so-so defense. Only they’ll return Bulaga from injury, replace James Jones with Davonte Adams and add Peppers+Clinton-Dix to that defense. The only thing stopping them from 13 wins are injuries. They did lose BJ Raji for the season, but his backups should be able to cover for him nicely.
12 wins:
Denver (the Vegas line: 11): Take the under. They have an amazing team on paper, but they have a whiff of the 2000 Redskins to this author. There’s no doubt that Manning and the offense won’t falter much after losing Decker and some important parts, but the defense will be the issue. They went out and invested a ton into the defense looking for a 2-3 year window to try and win a Super Bowl in, but it’s hard to see all those parts meshing well in year 1 and they still did little to fix their rushing defense, which was their problem in the Super Bowl. When it comes winter, they’re going to have to hope for dome teams or warm weather - not because of Peyton Manning - they’re going to have to get up early and hope that they can just pass rush for the rest of the game.
San Francisco (the Vegas line: 10.5): Bet the over. There’s a sense that the window might be closing for the 49ers, which seems absurd considering how young Kaepernick is and parts of that team are, but it’s very plausible that due to cap considerations they’ll have to start cycling out starters to pay for Staley, Bowman, Willis and Kaepernick’s contracts. So this season might be the last one (or penultimate one) where they have this group of players who built their success together. Desperation often yields results and they should do extremely well this season.
11 wins:
Indianapolis (the Vegas line: 9.5): Let’s call this the “Luck challenges Brady and Manning’s throne” season. They have an easy schedule and invested a ton into filling holes. Hakeem Nicks and Dwayne Allen (who returned from injury) are there to help Luck and the defense has been bolstered with D'Qwell Jackson and Arthur Jones. Their season and especially how they do in the playoffs will come down to their running game. If Trent Richardson isn’t anything more than a 3-3.5 YPC guy now, they’ll be ultimately harmless as a team. If they can squeeze some good play out of him and Ahmad Bradshaw, then they’ll be contenders.
Pittsburgh (the Vegas line: 8.5): Pittsburgh had an amazing run of bad luck last season. They lost their best offensive lineman in week 1, and outside of DeCastro, they got nothing but poor play all season from the rest of their line. Throw in losing Mike Wallace in costless agency and a defense that had ossified, you’d think that they should have won 5 games last season. They won 8 and were a missed short FG in the KC/SD game away from sneaking into the playoffs. They made changes, improving the speed across the board and talent on defense and Mike Munchak, an extremely smart line coach if nothing else, has been brought in to fix things. He should accomplish that. If they can find production from Wheaton and Heyward-Bey at the WR spot opposite of Antonio Brown, they’ll be a serious player in the AFC.
Miami (the Vegas line: 8): They had a tumultuous season and offseason, but they addressed their biggest need in spades by fixing their offensive line. If they stay healthy, this is a dangerous team to face in the winter for any team. However, this isn’t their year. If they can add a defensive playmaker at LB, they’ll be a serious contender in 2015. Right now their LBs are a bit of a work in process.
Seattle (the Vegas line: 11): The reigning champions took a step back in the offseason, there’s no way to slice it otherwise. Losing Red Bryant, even if Kevin Williams has anything left in the tank is a step back, as is losing all their fantastic depth at CB. The right side of their offensive line is still a major work in process also(even with Eric Winston now), but they have enough talent and good coaching to survive. They’re just not going to be as dominating as they were in 2013.
10 wins:
Atlanta (the Vegas line: 8): Bet the over heavily. Contra-Bill Parcells’ maxim about your record, Atlanta wasn’t nearly as bad as their record suggested last year. They never were healthy, losing Julio Jones for essentially the season and Roddy White fighting leg injuries the entire year. Also, Sam Baker only made 4 starts before going down and a speed bump would have been more effective than his replacement. All that changed in this offseason. Losing Sean Weatherspoon will sting the defense, but they made a serious effort to reinforce the defensive and offensive lines. This could be a real contender if they can get something from their defensive backfield and finding an edge rusher who scares pass blockers.
Chicago (the Vegas line: 8): Take the over. Chicago is far from a perfect team, as they have some cracks in the offensive line and a big hole in the middle of their defense. However, they have the best WRs in the game and a top five defensive line. In some ways they resemble one of the Super Bowl winning Giants team of late and they could catch fire down the stretch, but relying on Jay Cutler makes this author queasy about their title chances.
9 wins:
NY Giants (the Vegas line: 7.5): Take the over and bet that they’ll win the NFC East. They had two problems in 2013, they couldn’t protect Eli Manning (and thusly he threw a bushel of interceptions) and they couldn’t rush the passer to save their lives. They fixed the first problem by bringing in five offensive linemen who could potentially start for them, so in that department they just need to make sure that William Beatty doesn’t start much for them at left tackle. It’s harder to see what their plan is to fix their pass rush unless they think Jason Pierre-Paul will rebound as a top flight pass rusher. Robert Ayers was their only notable defensive lineman addition, and he only has 12 sacks in his 5 season long career. Keeping Eli upright wins them the NFC East again, if they can find 45 sacks they could contend.
Cincinnati (the Vegas line: 9): Stay away from this bet. Cincinnati has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, but they lost both of their coordinators (red flag), a cornerstone on both lines (massive red flag) and have to rely on the newly extended Andy Dalton (A great analysis of Dalton's new contract can be found here from this writer's colleague, Mike Carter) Their talent should carry them, barely, into a wild card spot but it’s as possible that they collapse and lose 10+.
New Orleans (the Vegas line: 9.5): Stay away from them also. This might be it for the Saints’ run. They have 152 million in cap charges set for 2015(at best, the 2015 cap will be 140-5 million), so a slash and burn is coming to that roster. If you don’t believe that, look at how they’ve overloaded in fixing their deficiencies from last season. They overhauled the secondary, they set things up for future cap cuts and this will be probably Drew Brees’ last run with a contending team. Sadly there won’t be a fairy tale ending here. The Saints ignored their pass rush and are praying that Mark Ingram gives them 800 total yards to reduce the number of snaps that they’ll have to play on defense.
8 wins:
Washington (the Vegas line: 7.5): Don’t bet the overall wins line, bet the points over in every game that the Redskins play in 2014. They’re going to be the fun team of the NFL this season. With a deadly offense and a horrible defense, they’re going to play a lot games where the teams combine for 60+ points. It’s not just a matter of coaching, they could bring in Wade Phillips (whose son is an offensive coach for Jay Gruden) at the bye week and they’d still struggle to stop anyone. That said, it’s this author’s understanding that despite Jim Haslett saving his job with Gruden/Allen by claiming that “Mike Shanahan made me run a loose 2 gap zone 3-4 (cover-3 mostly), and that I’ll run a 1 gap Cover-1 34 from now on”, he’s still running that loose 2 gap defense which was torched for two straight seasons. Getting DeSean Jackson means that at least until he melts down and they deal him to Oakland, they’ll have a very effective offense that will give teams fits to try and cover.
Baltimore (the Vegas line: 8.5): Stay away from this team. There’s something only completely and totally uninspiring about this team. Flacco, Rice, Ngata, Suggs, Torrey Smith and Eugene Monroe should be good enough to get them to 8 wins. However, it’s a fair question if Harbaugh forgot to replace Michael Oher during this offseason. Right now, Ricky Wagner is listed as the starting RT. He’s been almost exclusively an OG in his college/pro career. Terrance Brooks, a rookie, is listed as the starting FS. He has talent but has clear limitations. They’re gambling the season on flawed players stepping up and Steve Smith not being a locker room black hole. Good luck with that.
Philadelphia (the Vegas line: 9): Stay away from this team. They caught a lot of people by surprise in 2013 and Chip Kelly seems to think that continuity is all he really needs. Headed into camp, they’ve only appeared to have replaced two starters (Maclin for Jackson and Malcolm Jenkins for Patrick Chung). Throw in Darren Sproles to lessen the load on McCoy and Lane Johnson suspended four games for PEDs and Kelly’s strategy appears clear: out-run and out-execute the rest of the NFC East. That might work early in the season, but not in cold, rainy games at FedEx and the new Meadowlands.
Arizona (the Vegas line: 7.5): Bet the over lightly. They had a plan headed into the season: rock solid defense+Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald+improve the offensive line by getting Jon Cooper back and signing a FA OT to keep Palmer upright+then finishing up by starting the transition to the QB of the future. Did it work out that way? Nope. Tyrann Mathieu probably won’t be 100% until 2015. Daryl Washington, the heart of their defense, failed another drug test and will miss the season. And they got too busy filling other needs in the draft that they forgot to get that QB of the future (Logan Thomas probably will be moving to TE in the NFL). They still have enough pieces to make it interesting, maybe even be frisky but they won’t be a threat to a good team.
St. Louis (the Vegas line: 7.5): Another bet the over lightly team. If they played in a different division, they might be a contender for a 10-11 win season. Playing with two of the three best teams in the league in their division suppresses their win total. They have some great areas of the team, but also some obvious holes and are betting that Sam Bradford takes that next step everyone has been waiting for him to do. The story of their season will be how far that their lines can take them. If their defensive line can get a consist pressure on opposing offenses, the deficiencies in their back 7 will be hidden. If Jake Long can play well again, Bradford and the RBs will have plenty of space to operate in.
7 wins:
San Diego (the Vegas line: 8): Stay away from this team. They surprised some people and made it back to the playoffs in 2013. They did this thanks to getting some surprise performances that befuddled a lot of NFL pundits (and coaches). McCoy is a pretty smart head coach, but the secret to their success last year was a smart offensive mind in Ken Whisenhunt. He’s now gone and was replaced by Frank Reich. Whether he can cobble together an offense which isn’t impaired by their makeshift offensive line will be the question that their season hinges on. On defenses, teams will max protect and throw at taller wideouts against their three starting CBs all of whom are shorter than 6 feet tall.
Minnesota (the Vegas line: 6): Bet the over but not heavily. The Vikings seem to have their crap together(finally) but it’s a long way up Sisyphus’ ramp back to respectability. Getting coaches who know with some competence on the job was a good first step. Getting a prospect to work with at QB (Bridgewater) was another. They just can’t expect Norv Turner to stick around long (6 coaching jobs in 13 seasons) to fully right the ship. Worry about 2015 playoff-wise. Worry about Bridgewater’s development this season if you’re a Vikings fan.
Carolina (the Vegas line: 8): Bet the under heavy, as 7 wins might be generous. They still have a great defense (especially a marvelous defensive line). They have one enormous problem: who on earth is playing left tackle for them this season? Byron Bell is more than likely the starter, and they have precisely nothing in terms of young talent behind him. There is a school of thought that they’ll pick through the waivers for a LT, but that’s an awful strategy for a team that thinks that they’ll contend in the NFC South. Also, Jason Avant and Jerricho Cotchery will be fighting over a starting WR spot. Yes, you read that right. Unless they figure out how to win a lot of 13-9 ball games, this could get ugly for them quickly.
6 wins:
Tennessee (the Vegas line: 7): Stay away from them. This season is largely a wash for them, as they have a team option on Jake Locker and Whisenhunt seems determined to give Locker every chance for him to lose the starting QB’s job. Otherwise, they have an interesting team in the process of being built. They’re switching to a 3 front defense, and former first round busts Derrick Morgan and Akeem Ayers will be given every chance to show that they should go from “bust” to “unemployed.” They’re in the same situation as the Vikings: this season is about finding what you have, next season is about the build.
Houston (the Vegas line: 7.5): Houston has a new everything these days and focused their offseason on rebuilding in the purest sense of the term. They didn’t even try to cobble together a team that could surprise people by sneaking into the playoffs. What they did do is set themselves up for success in 2016 (assuming that they pay JJ Watt). They got line prospects. They got Clowney. They didn’t reach for a QB prospect high. They’re clearly waiting until next season to do that, then go about trying to unseat the Colts.
Tampa (the Vegas line: 7): Bet the under lightly. Lovie South has been a breath of fresh air to that franchise and they’ve made several big talent additions during this offseason. However, Lovie has mucked up the QB situation so much that it all may be for naught. Glennon is clearly the best QB that they have, is young and can be the gunslinger that Evans/Jackson need. Lovie seems determined to repeat his past mistakes of making bad choices when it comes to QB and roll with Josh McCown. All their costless agent spending will have been pointless if Lovie is playing musical chairs at QB throughout the season.
Detroit (the Vegas line: 8): Bet the under heavy. Let’s recap the Lions’ last 7 months, shall we? They fired Schwartz, who let the inmates run the proverbial asylum until he lost total control of that team. Then they brought in another players’ coach in Jim Caldwell who let the Colts’ roster do basically whatever they wanted until that team collapsed into a horrible season. They didn’t put any fear into the roster at all by trading or releasing any of the troublemakers on the team and brought in another alleged troublemaker in Golden Tate. No one should expect anything more than a repeat of the Schwartz years until there’s real change.
NY Jets (the Vegas line: 7): Bet the under. The Jets, a classic doubling down team. Nothing that they’ve done of late has really worked, so they’ve just tried to do the same-only louder. They spent a lot of costless agency money and high draft picks adding players, but at the end of the day the only clear upgrade was Calvin Pryor. The offense is still a mess. Chris Johnson still has talent, but his production seems to dependent on where he’s playing. He had over 1000 yards in 2013, but 738 of them (69%) came in the games in warm weather or a dome. He’s not going to see a lot of warm weather games playing in the AFC east, so counting on him to save the offense is a bit of a fool’s errand. They still have the same quality defense, but the secondary still hasn’t replaced Revis and has now lost Cromartie.
5 wins:
Kansas City (the Vegas line: 8): Bet the under heavily. Kansas City had a great 2013 season. They also had just about every factor working in their favor and now smell a lot like a potential repeat of the 2012-3 Redskins. Even if their drop in +/- turnovers and non-offensive touchdowns is only a 50% drop, they won’t even sniff the playoffs. And these factors made a so-so roster look better than it was in 2013, only they lost three offensive linemen during the spring including their best one Branden Albert. Reid will need to see a number of starters emerge or there’s going to be a lot of murmuring about if he’s lost it or not.
Dallas (the Vegas line: 8): Bet the under. Dallas spent a lot of resources giving Tony Romo the receiving targets and offensive line he needs to succeed in the last run of his career(seriously, he’s only 2 years younger than Tom Brady) and in this they have done very well. Romo is out of excuses even for those in the media who love him, barring major injuries hitting his side of the ball. The defense sans Sean Lee will be their problem all year long. It is possible that players emerge on defense like Lee did, but right now there’s too many question marks to do anything other than assume the worst.
Buffalo (the Vegas line: 6.5): Bet the under. Pundits are all excited about Jim Schwartz running the defense, Sammy Watkins on offense and EJ Manuel maybe, hopefully playing a full season. This team is still just a steaming pile of meh. The offensive line is still a work in progress, as Cordy Glenn is hurt and their two rookie OTs have major question marks about them. The defense has a great line and Schwartz should do well in making them play well. However, they did have 57 sacks last season and were top 3 in sacks, passes defended and INTs so there’s not a whole lot of room to improve on their defensive production. Doug Marrone is a smart coach but this team looks too much like a frankenstein of different ideas. It’s hard to see it somehow working together enough to be a success in the win column.
4 wins:
Jacksonville (the Vegas line: 4.5): Stay away from betting this team. Gus Bradley is a good coach and Bortles probably will be a quality starting QB in the NFL in time. The problem is that they don’t have much else to work with. There just isn’t much talent in Jacksonville, so they probably will have a poor season, but the fans should see this as a pure rebuild. If they can somehow squeeze good years out of Chris Clemons, Red Bryant and Toby Gerhart, then they could get themselves up to a 6-10 record. But the pieces aren’t there.
3 wins:
Cleveland (the Vegas line: 6.5): Bet the under heavily. Apparently the Browns are “concerned” about Manziel’s off the field behavior (Link). What did they expect when they drafted him? Someone who would be as saintly as Tim Tebow? And they should be worried that Kyle Shanahan is getting another chance to jerk the chain of another young QB instead of where Manziel spends his off time. With Josh Gordon, this is maybe a 6-7 win team. Without him, it’s hard to see how they have a productive offense unless someone comes out of absolute nowhere to contribute at WR (how much can we expect from Miles Austin and Co.?) The defense has talent, but they’re going to be asked to do a lot with Manziel’s growing pains on the field. Brian Hoyer will have his moments of stardom as the starting quarterback, but we will soon see that his inconsistencies will appear like lightning. A miracle is possible, as with any NFL team, but right now, the Cleveland Browns are not a playoff team.
2 wins:
Oakland (the Vegas line: 5): Bet the under heavily. The Raiders do have some good pieces to work with, but they’re a frankenstein of quality players and waiver wire players with a poor front office and coaching staff trying to cobble together enough wins to survive to 2015. This problem isn’t more apparent than on the defense, where they have some real talent on the edges of the defense in Sio Moore, Khalil Mack, Lamarr Woodley (now playing 4 front LDE) and Justin Tuck, but the middle of that defense is badly lacking in quality play and talent. On offense, if the QB position (with Matt Schaub and Derek Carr) isn’t productive, then they’ll struggle all season long. Since the Raiders are playing the NFC West (four losses) and AFC East (3-4 losses), it’s hard to see them as anything other than in the Jameis Winston sweepstakes.
Playoff Predictions:
NFC:
#1: New England Patriots
#2: Denver Broncos
Wild Card:
#3: Pittsburgh Steelers
#4: Indianapolis Colts
#5: Miami Dolphins
#6: Cincinnati Bengals
Wild card:
Steelers over the Bengals. The Bengals will be lucky to make it here, the Steelers are hoping to make a run.
Colts over the Dolphins. The Phins have the better overall team, but they don’t have an answer to Luck.
Divisional Round:
Broncos over the Steelers. The Broncos won’t worry about the Steelers offense and just play for a 70 combined points win.
Patriots over the Colts. The Colts don’t have the defense to deal with Brady.
Conference Title:
Patriots over the Broncos. Revis is the difference maker. He takes one of Manning’s weapons away from him all game long and the Broncos’ Redskins year 2000 defense struggles with Gronkowski.
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AFC:
#1: Green Bay Packers
#2: San Francisco 49ers
Wild Card:
#3: Atlanta Falcons
#4: New York Giants
#5: Seattle Seahawks
#6: Chicago Bears
Wild Card:
Bears over the Falcons. A high scoring fun game, but the Bears have the better pass rush and that will be the difference.
Seahawks over the Giants. The Hawks have too much for the Giants, especially when the Hawks’ defense is on the field. Eli’s improved season ends here in a flurry of turnovers.
Divisional round:
Packers over the Bears. McCarthy goes max protect and attacks the Bears' safeties all game long. The Packers struggle with the Bears' wideouts, but ultimately their pass rush wears Cutler down.
49ers over the Seahawks. The 49ers have the offensive line to keep the Hawks’ pass rush in check. Harbaugh finally figures out how to beat the Hawks’ LEO defense by dragging Davis in the space left empty by the LEO rushing and picking Kam Chancellor with Crabtree. Then they run this all game long to negate Earl Thomas’ value in space.
Conference title:
49ers over the Packers. The 49ers just have too much for them to handle. They’ll deal with Cobb as the hot read by zone blitzing and tricking Aaron Rodgers into throwing into coverage. On the other side of the ball, they’ll go big with 2 TEs and a FB, then run Gore and Lattimore all game long.
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Super Bowl - Patriots Over 49ers:
Revis takes Crabtree out of game, and the Pats go big to deal with the 49ers rushing attack. On offense, the Pats will go max protect and go after the 49ers’ younger CBs.
The Bests:
The All-Fox Team:
WRs: AJ Green, Cincinnati and Calvin Johnson, Detroit
TE: Rob Gronkowski, New England
LT: Joe Thomas, Cleveland
LG: Evan Mathis, Philadelphia
OC: Alex Mack, Cleveland
RG: Larry Warford, Detroit
RT: Sebastian Vollmer, New England
QB: Peyton Manning, Denver
RB: Adrian Peterson, Vikings
FB: Marcel Reese, Oakland
DE: Robert Quinn, St. Louis
5 tech DE: JJ Watt, Houston
NT: Dontari Poe, Kansas City
DT: Geno Atkins, Cincinnati
OLB: Lavonte David, Tampa
3-4 OLB: Robert Mathis, Indianapolis
ILB: Patrick Willis, San Fran
MLB: Luke Kuechly, Carolina
CBs: Richard Sherman, Seattle and Joe Haden, Cleveland
FS: Earl Thomas, Seattle
SS: Kam Chancellor, Seattle
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Best WR/TE Corps: Chicago Bears and its not close. Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall are head and shoulders above anyone else and Martellus Bennett is a quality TE that can block and catch well.
Best RB/FB Corps: Minnesota. This is almost on the strength of Peterson, but their backups have real talent.
Best Offense: Denver Broncos. Even after losing some pieces during this offseason, they have the best overall offense. Replacing Decker shouldn’t be that hard, but replacing Beadles will be.
Best Defense: Seattle Seahawks. That secondary can suffocate anyone, but will struggle if they have to deal with a smart offensive coach/QB combo who can be patient in working them up and down the field.
Best Offensive line: San Francisco 49ers. By a hair over the Cowboys. The 49ers know exactly what they want from their line: power football and they give it to them. And they have good depth as well.
Best Defensive line: St. Louis Rams. Quinn-Donald-Brockers-Long. Yeesh.
Best LBs Corps: San Francisco 49ers. There’s no one else really in the discussion for this. The 49ers, even without Bowman for awhile, are the best of the best and most of their backups (Lemonier, Skuta, Borland and Skov) could start on a lot of teams in the NFL.
Best Defensive Backs: Seattle Seahawks. They lost a lot of depth in this offseason, but seems to have done a good job trying to replace them with vets and prospects. It’s hard to think of another DB corps as good as this one has been. Maybe the early 00s Ravens?