"Look out for the Jets, man. I’m just telling you.”  - Rex Ryan, March 2014

We've heard this one before.   Give Ryan this, his sheer and utter resoluteness is as consistent as it is tiresome. 

Coming off of a surprising campaign where he steered the Jets to an 8-8 record and playoff contention, despite an atrocious point differential (-97) and an abysmal turnover margin (-14, third worst in the NFL), Ryan likely feels the Jets are a few subtle improvements away from the playoffs.

However, despite Rex's coaching wizardry and some good young players, there are still glaring weaknesses.

Let's take a closer look at the Jets.

Offense: The most obvious area in which New York can improve upon 2013, is QB play.  Geno Smith beat out (some question if it was ever a true competition) Michael Vick for the starting job, and has shown much greater understanding of Marty Mornhinweg's offense this preseason. Look for Smith to cut down the 21 INTs he produced last season by at least a third, as well as nearly double his 12 TD passes.  Smith has also proven to be very dangerous when he tucks the ball and takes off, a weapon that will continue to help sustain drives.

At RB the Jets have a solid trio of thoroughbreds that may not be the best in the NFL, but are talented enough to get the job done.  29 year old Chris Johnson arrives from Tennessee, hoping to improve upon last season's career worst 3.9 ypc average. He may not be the same player who rushed for over 2,000 yards in 2009, but he has enough juice in the tank to be an adequate if not spectacular lead back, will also help in the passing game.  Where Johnson is a slasher, Chris Ivory provides the power.  Last season, his first with the Jets, Ivory was at times a brute force cranking out 833 yards on 4.6 ypc.   Rounding out the group is the oft underrated Bilal Powell, who does a little bit of everything well.  Powell has had another outstanding camp, and the Jets would be wise to utilize him more often.

In Smith's rookie season he had nearly no weapons to work with in the passing game. That should improve this season.  Eric Decker was signed from Denver, and while most pundits credit the majority of his success last season to playing with Peyton Manning, Mornhinweg and New York's staff have raved about his route running, leadership, and overall skills this summer. Holdovers David Nelson and slot man Jeremy Kerley are decent players, but the next best weapon outside of Decker, should be rookie TE Jace Amaro.  Amaro is an excellent blend of size, athleticism, and soft hands.  Smith's development would be hastened by finding Amaro early and often.

Up front, the Jets have the potential to be a good O line in running game. Their pass protection, on the other hand, frequently leaves Smith either harassed or flat on his back. C Nick Mangold and LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson are mainstays who while solid, are overrated and have shown some decline the past few seasons.  New York dipped into the costless agent market to lure Breno Giacomini from Seattle to man the RT spot. Giacomini is solid, but not a Pro Bowler.  G Willie Colon epitomizes the group as whole.  One play he will maul an opposing defender into submission, the next he will get beat like a drum and/or commit a penalty.  For the Jets to make the playoffs, this group absolutely has to get better.

Overall, NY's offense should be much improved over last.  The running game, along with Smith's legs and arm, should both do enough to improve the unit to middle of the pack in the league. Cutting down the turnovers will help tremendously as well. Just don't expect this group to win too many shoot-outs.  The Jets as they always have, will depend first and foremost on the.......


Defense: New York's D was surprisingly stout against the run in 2013, but equally ineffective stopping opponents in the air.  Once built around stud corners like Antonio Cromartie and Darelle Revis, the Jets now rely on their front 7.  And few defensive lineman in the NFL are as versatile and spectacular as Muhammad Wilkerson. Wilkerson not only compiled 10.5 sacks last year, he did it from every position possible within the front 4. He was aided by 2013 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Sheldon Richardson.  Richardson is unbelievably agile for a man his size, and plays with a relentless motor.  Joining Wilkerson and Richardson up front is underrated run stuffer Damon "Big Snacks" Harrison.  With these three manning the trenches, it is no surprise the Jets ranked 4th in the NFL in stopping the run.

At ILB David Harris and Demario Davis are steady players, who have both been outstanding filling the gaps, but both often get lost out in space. Now in his third season in the NFL, Davis should evolve into more of a play maker, especially in blitzing situations. OLB Calvin Pace remains productive, even at 34 yars old, as evidenced by his 10 sacks a season ago. But the guy NY is hoping emerges as a break out in the unit is Quentin Coples.  The 2012 first round draft pick has accumulated just 10 sacks in 2 seasons. If he can stay healthy and live up to his enormous potential, this front 7 could take it to the next level.

However, the unit that could single-handedly make or break the Jets season is the defensive backfield.

Revis Island has been off the Jets hemisphere for two seasons now.  Cromartie is in Arizona.  Who is left you ask?

Second year CB Dee Milliner has taken Ryan's Bravado cue and run with it, proclaiming himself the "best cornerback in the NFL."   After an up and down rookie campaign it's hard to take him serious just yet.  But for all of the uncertainty Milliner brings, the other side of the field is twice as unsettled.  Kyle Wilson is more of a slot corner, and he is mediocre at best in that role.  The Jets brought in Dimitri Patterson to compete for the other CB job, but he was cut after an odd AWOL incident sparked a 1 game preseason suspension. And 3rd round draft pick Dex McDougle was lost for the season with a torn ACL.   At safety things are a bit more promising. 2014 First rounder Calvin Pryor looks like a hit.  And veterans Dawan Landry and Antonio Allen are decent options as well.  Because of the uncertaintly on the outside, Allen has also moonlighted at CB, an experiment worth looking as the season progresses. In a nutshell, the once formidable Jets pass defense, is now quite an uncertainty.

Overall Analysis: GM John Idzik has done a decent job shoring up some obvious weaknesses in two seasons at the helm. The Jets offense is going to be better, the weapons and Smith's development dictate it. But the offensive line is starting to spring a few leaks, and keeping Geno upright consistently is a major concern.  The D is always going to be  focal point for a Ryan coached team.  But while there is talent up front in spades, the defensive backfield is a mess.  Additionally it will be hard to equal last season's prowess against the run despite the talent, as loading up in the box and putting heavy responsibility on the corners is a far less attractive scenario given the current make-up of that group.

Overall, this is a team with some obvious strengths, but also some disturbing weaknesses.  This leaves them just about where they were last season, a muddling group that likely finishes somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7 and on the outside looking in come playoff time.

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About the author
Jerry  Steinberg
Passionate University of Miami alum. Long time boxing fan/enthusiast. I have strong opinions on College Athletics and the Sweet Science. I also enjoy the NFL, MLB, and NBA.