After two straight losses, including a beat down at the hands of the 1-8 Buccaneers at home after a bye week, the Redskins are reeling. And the ire of the fans, media, and even head coach are being directed at Robert Griffin III, who has taken 11 sacks in his last two games (and was sacked/hit 16 times on Sunday). After the game, RG3 appeared to have ripped his teammates (not really, but it was spun that way) which drew a public rebuke from Jay Gruden. Beat writers from multiple media sources are predicting that RG3’s time in DC is coming to an end. How did they get here? How did the relationship sour in 12 weeks (and after four starts)? Ignore all the accusations and leaks. The reason is because of two words.

Play action is the problem. ProFootballFocus makes the point here towards the end of 2012: link. They call him “the best play action passer in the NFL” which is an amazing statement considering that Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, and Tom Brady have made hall of fame careers exploiting the play action, but they have stats to back it up. And he had a passer rating of over 115 as a play action passer. When RG3 used the play action in 2012, he average 12.5 yards per attempt (best in the NFL). Without, it was under 6 (worst in the NFL). Since then, the Redskins have used less and less play action. From 45% in 2012 to 31% in 2013 to 17% in 2014. The reason why from 2012 to 2013 was probably due to a defense which put them in situations where no one would believe the play action, and from 2013 to 2014 was because of Jay Gruden’s offense which being pass first has all but eliminated the play action pass (also the defense has been their usual ineffective self). Gruden and Sean McVay have tried to compensate for the lack of play action calls with an option package where RG3 can run out to the edges and has the option to pass or run, but this is a bit half assed. RG3 has shown that he can be an effective passer, but he needs a strong running game (and not from his own runs) to be effective. This is more difficult when the defense is giving up a ton of yards/points which makes defenses focus on the pass at the expense of the run, but ultimately everyone is to blame here. RG3 is to blame for not developing his game and getting off his dependency on the play action. Coach Gruden and his staff are the blame for not using the run more and setting up RG3 better for success. And they’re also to blame for not maximizing the offense to the talent that you have on hand. It’s also not a valid excuse to say that they didn’t know RG3 since their offensive coordinator was an offensive assistant under Mike Shanahan. This isn't to immunize RG3 from his failures, he has plenty of them. However, a divorce now looks imminent.

Where do the skins go from here? They’ve picked a really bad time to make a change at Quarterback if that’s where they’re going. There’s very little in costless agency, talented Quarterbacks that could be dealt or in the draft that would seem to be a quality fit and could fill the shoes that RG3 is leaving. In list form, here’s the realistic options that the Skins would have:

Christian Ponder   Mark Sanchez   Jake Locker   Sam Bradford

Brian Hoyer    Jameis Winston Sean Mannion Garrett Grayson

There is the possibility that there’s a rookie Quarterback in the mid to later rounds that they’re interested in, but no names jump out. And this list eliminates a number of rookie and Vet Quarterbacks who clearly don’t fit Gruden’s offense if RG3 doesn’t (like Marcus Mariota). Let’s eliminate some names immediately:

Christian Ponder   Mark Sanchez   Jake Locker   Sam Bradford

Brian Hoyer    Jameis Winston Sean Mannion Garrett Grayson

Sanchez just won’t happen. They’d rather start Colt McCoy. Jake Locker is just RG3 without the talent and more injury issues. Of the rest, let’s rank them in likelihood:

1. Jameis Winston, Florida State. This would be a stereotypical Redskins move. Big name, shiny object and would “excite” the fan base. Never mind that he’s also a bad fit for Gruden’s West Coast Offense and has a ton of off the field issues.

2. Brian Hoyer, Cleveland. There’s a lot of reports out of Cleveland that Johnny Manziel will be given more and more playing time with an eye to being the starter in 2015. Why they’re doing this seems to defy all reason and logic, but there’s a reason Cleveland sports is hated by the Gods. This would be the better move than Winston and could start tomorrow.

3. Christian Ponder, Minnesota. He’s got a soft arm and some decision making issues. However, in the right system he could squeeze some production out of his talent. Perhaps Gruden’s West Coast Offense is that system.

4. Garrett Grayson, Colorado State and Sean Mannion, Oregon State. For all intents and purposes, they’re the same to the Redskins. Both are 2nd level prospects who could see a quick rise in the draft with good post season play/practices.

5. Sam Bradford, St Louis. The Rams don’t quite know what to do with him. They won’t move on from him without another option at Quarterback, but they will listen to offers. Maybe Bradford for RG3 straight up?

There’s another side of this coin. If the Redskins are replacing RG3, RG3 isn’t going to sit during 2015 then hit costless agency. The Redskins will try to get some value out of him before he leaves. Where does RG3 go from here? What teams would be interested in trading for him and what would they realistically offer the skins? Again, ranked by likelihood:

1. Buffalo

The offer: A conditional 2016 2nd round pick or EJ Manuel+a 2015 3rd round pick.

Why do the Bills do this? Their Quarterbacks are EJ Manuel, Kyle Orton, and that’s it. Without a first round pick, they’re going to be hoping & praying that someone drops to the mid 2nd round that they want. RG3 is as good an option as any Vets available for what they want to run. Also, with a strong running game and decent offensive line, this would seem to be a good fit for RG3’s play action dependence.

Why do the Bills not do this? It’s honestly hard to think of a reason why they wouldn’t do this if the redskins made RG3 available for a trade.

2. Houston

The offer: Brooks Reed (OLB) and a conditional 2016 3th round pick

Why do the Texans do this? Ryan Mallett has given them some production from the Quarterback spot, but he’s a UFA after the season. Tom Savage hasn’t shown anyone anything to make them think that he could take over the job in 2015. Dealing away an OLB who’ll be 3rd or 4th on the depth chart and a conditional Day 2 pick in 2016 (which becomes a first if RG3 makes the pro bowl) for a starting Quarterback that saves them from using a first or second round pick on a Quarterback seems cost effective.

Why do the Texans not do this? They might prefer giving Mallett a 3 year, 15 million deal than shaking things up.

3. Tampa Bay

The offer: Doug Martin or Mike Glennon straight up. Depending on the Skins’ long term plans with Alfred Morris.

Why do the Bucs do this? Josh McCown has limited upside as a passer and it’s clear that Lovie doesn’t trust Glennon. If your choice is Winston, Mariota, or RG3, at least you have NFL film of RG3 and Lovie hates rookie Quarterbacks.

Why do the Bucs not do this? Ryan Mallett or Brian Hoyer might make more sense for Lovie considering his hatred of young Quarterbacks.

4. St. Louis

The offer: Sam Bradford straight up.

Why do the Rams do this? Bradford is coming up for a new contract and they haven’t really missed him this season. That said, Austin Davis and Shaun Hill aren’t long or medium term options for them. RG3, behind a young/improving offensive line, could be deadly. And Fisher would get to rub this trade in the face of his buddy Mike Shanahan in the NFL coaches retirement home.

Why do the Rams not do this? Cash money. They would have to eat about 8 million in dead cap for dealing Bradford and 4-7 million in acquiring RG3 (and his tender offer for 2016 would be nearly 17 million).

5. Arizona

The offer: Darnell Dockett.

Why do the Cardinals do this? They sure haven’t missed Dockett and the Redskins could use him on a porous defense (assuming that they stick with the 3 front defense). Carson Palmer is probably done as an effective Quarterback, but could teach RG3 as his backup.  

Why do the Cards not do this? They would have to shell out a ton to keep RG3 (they also would dump a ton of salary shredded Dockett) past 2015 and Drew Stanton might be a good option instead of making a trade.

6. New York Jets

The offer: Quentin Coples or Dee Milliner (The redskins get their choice of underachieving defensive players).

Why do the Jets do this? Geno Smith has lost everyone in the Big Apple. Michael Vick isn’t a good option either. Giving up a defensive player that’s underwhelmed them for a potential starting Quarterback seems like a no brainer, even if they have to package more than one or a day 2 pick with one of them.

Why do the Jets not do this? The only reason that they wouldn’t be furiously texting Bruce Allen would be if the new GM/coach (assuming that a change is made) is really locked into Mariota or Winston.

Could things change and RG3 & Jay Gruden figure out a professional relationship and an offense that he can thrive in? Before Friday (November 21st) this author would have said yes. Without a clear blue chip Quarterback prospect in costless agency or the draft, it would make more sense for Skins to just rebuild their poor roster and roll with RG3 another season. That was before Jay Gruden, who has earned the love of Redskins’ fans for his unvarnished takes on players, said that RG3 “has been coddled for so long.” Gruden then tried to get the poop back in the horse by claiming it hasn’t been a negative but how he hasn’t faced adversity as a player, but it seems very unlikely that they can figure out an arraignment now. This isn’t to say that RG3 certainly will be dealt or released after the season, but the odds of it happening have to be over 80% right now. RG3 could adjust to Gruden’s offense and thrive and force Gruden to keep him around, but with a remaining schedule which includes Dallas, a trip to New York, the Colts, Rams, 49ers, and Philly this seems unlikely at best.