The trial for Aaron Hernandez finally started this week after a long delay due to many defense motions and a long sorting of the jury. Pundits declared the case weak or said that the case was falling apart. The prosecution stood by the guns and didn’t try the case in the media via leaks. They also refused deals for many of the figures on the periphery, except for his fiancee but nothing is close to being finalized.  

In the opening statements, the prosecutors showed their cards for the first time and it's clear that their case is much stronger than outside observers knew. The prosecutors can forensically link Aaron Hernandez to the murder in multiple ways. First, they have his DNA on a joint that he shared with the victim (also linked by DNA) at the scene of the crime. They also have DNA on a bullet casing which matches the caliber used in the murder. This casing was found in a rental car whose tire tracks were left at the scene of the murder. And lastly, they have matched sneaker prints left at the scene to shoes that were Hernandez’s.

This new evidence is important because it links together the evidence that was previously publicly known. The case against Hernandez, before Thursday, basically boiled down to a video from Hernandez’s home security system where he was wielding a .45 caliber gun, the same caliber that was the murder weapon the night of the murder. Also Hernandez destroyed his cell phone before giving it to investigators, which didn’t stop them from downloading his text messages from that night which showed Hernandez asking the victim if he wanted to hang out and that he would pick him up. Video from outside of the victim’s home showed a rented Nissan, that was rented by Hernandez, picking up the victim before he was murdered and three potential witnesses who have big credibility issues.

The DNA evidence puts Hernandez in the car the night of the murder. However, Hernandez told the police that he rented the car and lent it to two of the three aforementioned witnesses. The tire tracks put the rental car at the scene of the murder. The DNA evidence and sneaker prints put Hernandez at the scene of the murder. And lastly, now the video tape has some real bite for the prosecution - the DNA evidence on the bullet casing makes it hard for Hernandez to claim that he wasn’t near the murder weapon, and the shoes he was wearing match the sneaker prints.

Unless the defense can tear holes in the DNA evidence, which is unlikely since this is a high profile case and the DA’s office would have checked everything, it seems very unlikely that Hernandez will avoid life in jail or the death penalty. Even if he happens to beat the murder charge, the weapons charges he’s facing will put him in jail for 4-10 years.