1. Tampa Bay: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

Why not Marcus Mariota or Leonard Williams? Mariota might be better off the field, but he’s a long way from being better on the field. Williams might be good for Lovie Smith’s defense, but they need a QB more than a running mate for Gerald McCoy.

2. Tennessee: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama

Why not Marcus Mariota or Leonard Williams? The Titans invested a lot in their defense already and Dick LeBeau’s variant of the 3-4 defense needs more talent at OLB than 5 Tech DE. As for Mariota: he looks like a bad fit for Ken Whisenhunt’s offense. It makes more sense to roll with Zach Mettenberger (or deal for someone like Sam Bradford or RG3) for 2015 and go after Philip Rivers or Nick Foles along with Bradford/RG3 next March. Especially if you have Cooper in place to help the next QB.

3. Jacksonville: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia

Why not Leonard Williams? The Jaguars had 45 sacks in 2014 and signed Jared Odrick. They need a WR much more than they need a defensive tackle. They would consider Cooper over White if Cooper makes it here.

4. New Orleans (from Oakland, Oakland gets pick #13, a 3rd round pick and DE Cam Jordan): Leonard Williams, DL, Southern Cal

Why make this trade? It comes down to why would the Saints create a hole then try to fill it again? Why not stick with Cam Jordan and stay at 13? Two reasons: 1, Jordan is a good B/B+ level player and probably will never improve from that. Williams could be an A level player as a rookie and is a perfect fit for that defense. 2, Jordan’s making nearly 7 million this season and will become a free agent for a team that’s up against the cap. With the market for top end 3-4 defensive ends highly distorted towards the players, the Saints are figuring that they’re really saving a few million to upgrade the spot at the cost of a 3rd round pick.

5. Cleveland (from Washington, Washington get picks 12 and 19 and gives WR Andre Roberts to Cleveland): Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Why make this trade? Cleveland doesn’t have a QB and are done with Johnny Manziel already. Josh McCown is good in small doses but can’t be asked to make 16 starts for them with a high expectation of success. Mariota might not be a good QB in the NFL(read option QBs rarely are, ask Manziel) but the Browns seem in love with him.

6. New York Jets: Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State

Why not Danny Shelton? The pundits love Shelton more than the decision makers do. They see Shelton as a one dimensional 0 NT whose sack totals last season are the cause of the attention given to him, not that he’s Vince Wilfork 2.0. Eddie Goldman seems to be a better physical presence on the field and is a better “football player”(cliche alert). The Jets really would love Mariota to fall here, but they’ll throw an offer to the Redskins for Robert Griffin III anyway (Quentin Coples and a conditional 2nd round pick in 2016 [or Dee Milliner and a 3rd round pick in 2015]) which the Redskins will take.

7. Chicago:  Dante Fowler, Jr, DE, Florida

Why not Randy Gregory? Vic Fangio has no problem taking “troubled” prospects like Aldon Smith. However, Ryan Pace appears to prefer guys who don’t have red flags. Fowler also gives Fangio some flexibility in the front 7 of his defense. His 3-4 defense doesn’t have the exotic blitzes and multiple shifts/front that are standard for most defenses like that. So in practice it can look like a 4-3. Fowler is a better fit for a defense like this than Gregory.

8. Atlanta: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

Why not Randy Gregory? Three words: Legion, Of, and Boom. Atlanta has some talent in the secondary, but they need a press CB who can take on a top WR. Waynes might be able to fill that role. They could use an edge pass rusher, but a CB is more important to them.

9. New York Giants: Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska

Why not Brandon Scherff? Two reasons: 1-Jerry Reese (the Giants’ GM) can’t resist taking the best player available in the draft and after hitting a home run on Odell Beckham Jr last year, he’ll do it again. And 2-Brandon Scherff isn’t a left tackle prospect.

10. St Louis: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa.

Why not a WR? If they retain Joe Barksdale, they would have a decent enough line if Greg Robinson can handle the LT spot. However, they already have some talent at WR right now and need another OG more to go with Saffold inside.

11. San Francisco (from Minnesota, Minnesota gets pick #15 and a 3rd round pick): Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson  

Why make this trade? The Redskins are picking #12 and even if they deal RG3 for Quentin Coples and a Day 2 pick, he’s in a contract year and could walk. Beasley or Shane Ray could be their pick anyway.

12. Atlanta (from Cleveland via Washington-Washington gets the Falcons’ 2016 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick in 2015): Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia.

Why make this trade? They’re gambling that Gurley’s impact on the team-even if doesn’t begin until the midseason-will make giving up a future 1st worth it. It’s also a deal predicated on the assumption that the problem with the Falcons that last couple seasons was coaching and that the new coaching staff can get them to 8-10 wins with the talent that they have already.

13. Oakland (from New Orleans): Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF.

Why not literally anyone else? Because it’s the Raiders, baby.

14. Miami: Ron Darby, CB, Florida State

Why not Marcus Peters? The last thing that the Dolphins want is a potential locker room distraction. This isn’t to say that Peters isn’t more talented than Darby but Darby appears to be a safer pick right now. Especially with Miami’s rebuilt defense around Ndamukong Suh, they’ll need to eliminate the quick passes to allow the defensive line to work properly.  

15. Minnesota (from San Francisco): Shane Ray, DE/OLB Missouri

Why not a CB? This is more a best player available pick. Ray might not be needed by the Vikings, but he represents more value for their pick than reaching for a CB would.

16. Houston: La’el Collins, OL LSU

Why not a WR like Jaelen Strong? They really like Cecil Shorts III as DeAndre Hopkins’ running mate but that doesn’t mean that they won’t go after a flanker/chain mover in round 2. Collins potentially solidifies an interior line that lost Chris Myers.

17. San Diego: Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky

Why not Melvin Gordon? They can get a potentially top flight RB in round 2. They can’t get an edge rusher like Dupree then. Also: don’t believe the “Philip Rivers and this pick to Tennessee for pick #2 so that the Chargers can take Mariota.” They’ve had sustained success for over 10 seasons because they had a pure passer in there at QB (Brees then Rivers). It seems unlikely that they decide to shake things up and deal the franchise for a spread option QB.  

18. Kansas City: Cam Erving, OL Florida State

Why not Eric Kendricks? Replacing Rodney Hudson is a bigger priority than any other issue on the team. He was the heart of a decent line and getting another vet OC takes precedence.

19. Washington (from Buffalo via Cleveland): Andrus Peat, OT Stanford

Why not Eli Harold or another edge rusher? The new GM manager of the Redskins has been very blunt in public and private about his current offensive line: outside of Trent Williams, he thinks that they’re a bunch of soft stiffs who couldn’t start in the CFL. And he’s not wrong. So, why hasn’t he signed any new linemen in free agency? He’s put out offers on several players, but won’t overpay. Peat is either his starting RT with Morgan Moses moving to LG or vice versa. Or Moses and Peat are his starting OTs in 2016 if Trent Williams asks for 22+ million a season. Also, in this mock they’ve dealt RG3 for one year of Quentin Coples.

Buffalo’s 2nd rounder: Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor

Why not Donovan Smith? If they don’t make an offer for a vet QB like Robert Griffin III or Sam Bradford, they need a QB. Tyrod Taylor, EJ Manuel and Matt Cassel should be depressing for Bills’ fans. If they make a move for a vet QB, then this pick will become the meanest, biggest OLman left in the draft.

20. Philadelphia: Ereck Flowers, OL, Miami

Why not Landon Collins? They’d love to have Collins roaming around the backend of that defense, but if they’re going to deal away Evan Mathis they’ll need to replace him with a top end prospect. Flowers’ flaws at OT disappear at OG since he won’t be asked to face edge defenders who are much quicker than he is on the field.

21. Cincinnati: Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon

Why not Devin Funchess? Fisher is a bit of a luxury pick over a need like Funchess (or another TE or WR). However, the Bengals are leaning on Andrew Whitworth and Eric Winston for their line and both are getting older. Fisher might need a season or two to learn, but he could push Whitworth to LG and start at LT.

22. Pittsburgh: Landon Collins, S, Alabama

Why not a CB? It’s too early to tell how Keith Butler will alter his mentor’s defense in Pittsburgh but it seems very likely that the performance of the defense will still rise and fall on the play at the strong safety spot. Troy Polamalu has been a hall of famer for the Steelers, but it appears that his time has passed. Collins has flaws but they can be hidden in that defense and there’s no CB prospect worth the pick here.

23. Detroit: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas

Why not Danny Shelton? Again, the Pundits like Shelton more than the decision makers. Also, Shelton is more a 0 NT than a 1 gap DT to go with Haloti Ngata. Brown can penetrate better and could team up with Ngata better.

24. Arizona: Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA

Why not Arik Armstead? Two words: Logan Thomas and Carson Palmer’s contract is really a 1 year deal for 2015 before they replace him.

25. Carolina: DJ Humphries, OT, Florida.

Why not Jaelen Strong? Who knows what they have with Oher and Jonathan Martin. Humphries solidifies things to some extent and allows Cam Newton some breathing room.

26. Baltimore: Jalen Collins, DB, LSU

Why not Marcus Peters? After Ray Rice, Bernard Pierce, etc the Ravens’ owner came out last week and said that character will be a priority in the draft. Who knows if they’ll stick with that, but let’s take him at his word.  

27. Minnesota (from Dallas, Dallas gets Adrian Peterson and Minnesota’s 2nd round pick-Minnesota gets a 5th round pick): Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

Why not Melvin Gordon? They seem to like their RB situation more than their CB situation. Also no matter who they get at RB will have the expectations of having to make the fans forget about Adrian Peterson

Dallas’ 2nd round pick(from Minnesota): Cedric Ogbuehi, OL Texas A&M

Why not Gerod Holliman? The Cowboys seem to like their DB situation right now(why is a good question) but Holliman isn’t the answer. He’s too stiff in coverage to be anything other than liability. Ogbuehi is recovering from a knee injury, but its a long term play for them.

28. Denver: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington

Why not AJ Cann? They would love an OG to put on their line, but they can’t pass on a NT to solidify their porous run defense. Wade Phillips loves 0 DTs who can get up the field and Shelton-no matter his flaws-can do that better than most NT/0 DTs.  

29. Indianapolis: Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon

Why not Denzel Perryman? The Colts lost a ton of beef on their defensive line in Cory Redding and Ricky Jean-Francois and replaced them with Kendall Langford. If they’re going to make a run at a title now, they need a big body on their defensive line. They were hoping Danny Shelton would fall this far so maybe a trade up into the mid-20s would come.

30. Green Bay: Eric Kendricks, LB, UCLA

Why not TJ Clemmings? They need an ILB who can start more than an OT who can be the swing tackle backup. Right now, their starting ILB are Sam Barrington (high effort, low talent) and Carl Bradford (high talent, low effort). That’s not going to work.

31. New Orleans (from Seattle): AJ Cann, OG, South Carolina

Why not Denzel Perryman? Perryman would help their defense, but they just dealt for Dannell Ellerbe and have David Hawthorne in place. After dumping Ben Grubbs onto Kansas City, they have a big hole on the left side of their offensive line. Cann made 40+ starts for an SEC school and can play anywhere in the interior of a line.

Seattle’s 2nd round pick: Donovan Smith, OL, Penn State

Why not Jeremy Langford? After losing two offensive linemen in March, a replacement is needed more than telegraphing the worst kept secret in the NFL: that Marshawn Lynch will be cut after this season.

32. New England: Byron Jones, DB, U-Conn.

Why not Dorial Green-Beckham? DGB has amazing physical tools, but is extremely raw as a player (he ran 3 routes on all his passes at Missouri and never ran a slant well). Jones can start tomorrow at CB.

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About the author
Jon Fox
Just listen to Radiohead when you read my pieces and we will get along just fine.