Instead of an usual draft grades where the author/pundit pontificates on how someone will fit moving forward, this author will used Pro-Football Reference’s Approximate value metric (explained here) to grade each team’s 2012 draft and project their 2015 draft class in terms of AV three years from now. This is because the general feeling among draft pundits is that you truly can’t grade a draft until it’s picks have developed for three seasons.

1. Minnesota

2012 grade: 89. Top 3: Matt Kahil (24), Harrison Smith (17) and Jarius Wright (12)

Biggest Regret: Josh Robinson over Oliver Vernon

2015 projected grade: 118. Top 3: TJ Clemmings (35), Eric Kendricks (28) and Trae Waynes (20)

Biggest Regret: Danielle Hunter over Carl Davis

Rating: 103.5. The Vikings took a bunch of big names that should be productive for them, but they did roll the dice with some of these picks. They come out of the draft with a big question mark about who’s going to be catching Bridgewater’s passes and whether or not Adrian Peterson and the team can co-exist for the time being. But they did accomplish a major goal that they didn’t make public: get some insurance for themselves in case Matt Kahil’s awful 2014 continues into 2015.

2. Miami

2012 grade: 86. Top 3: Ryan Tannehill (32), Lamar Miller (18) and Oliver Vernon (16)

Biggest Regret: Jonathan Martin over Kelechi Osemele.

2015 projected grade: 104. Top 3: Jordan Phillips (40), DeVante Parker (22) and Tony Lippett (20)

Biggest Regret: Jamil Douglas over Doran Grant.

Rating: 95. The Phins never panicked through this draft, they patiently waited and struck when their turn came up. Up and down the draft, they found quality prospects that could contribute quickly. 

3. Cleveland

2012 grade: 86. Top 3: Trent Richardson (17), Mitchell Schwartz (17) and Brandon Weeden/Billy Winn (12)

Biggest Regret: Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden over the rest of the 1st round

2015 projected grade: 100. Top 3: Cam Erving (30), Nate Orchard (22) and Danny Shelton (20)

Biggest Regret: Xavier Cooper over Bryce Petty.

Rating: 93. Even if Cleveland gets this kind of AV from their 2015 draft picks, it seems such an underwhelming draft for them. No QB, no WR ready to contribute anytime soon, no pick that would seem to change the trajectory of a franchise that’s gone moribund. It seems like their goal this offseason was to give Manziel an opportunity to crash and burn in the NFL.

4. Seattle

2012 grade: 143. Top 3: Russell Wilson (49), Bobby Wagner (32) and JR Sweezy (18).

Biggest Regret: Umm..there’s not one?

2015 projected grade: 42  Top 3: Tyler Lockett (18), Frank Clark (9) and Mark Glowinski (7)

Biggest Regret: Terry Poole over Shaq Mason.

Rating: 92.5. For the last few years, the draft pundits grade the Seahawks low for their draft and every year the Seahawks prove that they know best. Now in 2015, the opposite has happened: the pundits are slobbering over their draft class and it was very hard to see the value in it. Lockett was clearly their best pick, but they had to deal away three draft picks just to move up in the 4th.

5. Cincinnati

2012 grade: 78. Top 3: Kevin Zeitler (18), Mohamed Sanu (17) and George Iloka (13).

Biggest Regret: Dre Kirkpatrick over Janoris Jenkins.

2015 projected grade: 96. Top 3: Jake Fisher (26), Derron Smith (20) and Cedric Ogbuehi (17).

Biggest Regret: Tyler Croft over Jeff Heuermann

Rating: 87. On paper, they didn’t have the highest rating by AV. On the field, they had the best draft according to this author. They balanced out prospects who filled a clear need with prospects who had the highest talent level and sometimes were able take one prospect who checked both boxes. The amazing pick was Derron Smith. He dropped due to a sports hernia injury suffered recently, but he had 2nd round talent.

6. Philadelphia

2012 grade: 87. Top 3: Fletcher Cox (24), Nick Foles (19) and Mychal Kendricks (18).

Biggest Regret: Vinny Curry over Kelechi Osemele.

2015 projected grade: 86. Top 3: JaCorey Shepherd (30), Eric Rowe (21) and Nelson Agholor (20)

Biggest Regret: Jordan Hicks over Carl Davis

Rating:  86.5. This author does believe the rumors that the Eagles were offering everything in the city short of the Rocky Balboa statue in order to move up for Marcus Mariota. And it was beyond disingenuous of Chip Kelly to deny that he had any real interest in his former QB. When this failed, he sat back and had a quietly solid draft. JaCorey Shepherd is an amazing player when you put the film on: no one has beat him deep since 2012.  

7. Washington

2012 grade: 89. Top 3: Robert Griffin III (32), Alfred Morris (25) and Keenan Robinson (8)

Biggest Regret: Josh LeRibeus over Russell Wilson or Oliver Vernon.

2015 projected grade: 72. Brandon Scherff (35), Preston Smith (15) and Arie Kouandjio (13)

Biggest Regret: Matt Jones over Jeremy Langford.

Rating: 80.5. They had a very Seattle type draft, which shouldn’t be a surprise considering McCloughan’s connections to the Seahawks. Their priority was power football and size. This, like the Seahawks, leads you to take players substantially earlier than they should go. Also interesting is how much their draft was a repudiation of even their draft and free agency from 2014. They took Brandon Scherff, which destroys the value of Morgan Moses to them. They took Preston Smith, which destroys the value of Trent Murphy (unless he moves to ILB, which is possible). They took Arie Kouandjio, which destroys the value of Spencer Long and Shawn Lauvao. And they took Jamison Crowder, which destroys the value of Andre Roberts to them. It takes a very confident and secure GM to go out and destroy the value of five players that your predecessor (who still is employed by the franchise as your nominal superior) acquired. 

8. Indianapolis

2012 grade: 108. Top 3: Andrew Luck (42), TY Hilton (29) and Coby Fleener (14).

Biggest Regret: Justin Anderson over JR Sweezy.

2015 projected grade: 45. Top 3: D’Joun Smith (15), Phillip Dorsett (10) and Josh Robinson (7)

Biggest Regret: Phillip Dorsett over Landon Collins or DGB.

Rating: 76.5. Its very hard to get excited about this draft, and they're only up this high because of their amazing 2012 draft. The Colts seemed to focus on beating the Patriots at the expense of worrying about all the games leading up to a potential playoff rematch. When D’Joun Smith is potentially their best pick, it was a long weekend for them.

9. Chicago

2012 grade: 37. Top 3: Alshon Jeffrey (25), Shea McClellin (9) and Isaiah Frey (3)

Biggest Regret: Shea McClellin over Chandler Jones or Harrison Smith.

2015 projected grade: 113. Top 3: Eddie Goldman (37), Kevin White (36) and Hroniss Grasu (25).

Biggest Regret: Adrian Amos over Brett Hundley.

Rating:  75. The Bears had a very good draft where they filled a bunch of needs and gave their new coordinators some new weapons to use. And yet...the biggest meme from this draft of their was this.  The Bears reported tried to offer Cutler to move up for Mariota, but this author is very skeptical about any such offer: the Bears can’t move Cutler’s contract without his consent for a restructuring of his contract and why would the Titans move for a QB with a big contract who couldn’t thrive with Jeffery and Marshall last year?

10. Baltimore

2012 grade: 59. Top 3: Kelechi Osemele (17), Courtney Upshaw (17) and Bernard Pierce (10).

Biggest Regret: Asa Jackson over Alfred Morris.

2015 projected grade: 81 Top 3: Maxx Williams (19), Breshad Perriman (18) and ZaDarius Smith (14).

Biggest Regret: Perriman over Jake Fisher, Landon Collins

Rating: 75. Solid if unspectacular draft for the Ravens. Maxx Williams, Zadarius Smith and Perriman should contribute early. And this is what they do year in and year out, find guys who will contribute somehow. Even if they pass on clearly superior talent. They still have a cap crunch issue over the next few years due to Flacco’s massive extension so they’ll need all their top picks to push out a more expensive vet.

11. St Louis

2012 grade: 86. Top 3: Michael Brockers (20), Janoris Jenkins (20) and Trumaine Johnson/Chris Givens (11).

Biggest Regret: Brian Quick over Alshon Jeffery.

2015 projected grade: 61. Top 3: Todd Gurley (19), Rob Havenstein (18) and Bud Sasser (9).

Biggest Regret: Taking Todd Gurley over Melvin Gordon.

Rating: 73.5. If Gurley is a star, then the Rams will have done well. But there’s too many red flags are potential problems looming for that to happen. Outside of that, their draft is a whole bunch of replaceable starters. Bud Sasser was their most interesting pick: he never was a physically imposing player at Missouri but he knew how to use his route running and body control to beat opposing CBs. He might be able to do the same in the pros.

12. Pittsburgh

2012 grade: 53. Top 3: David DeCastro/Kelvin Beachum (16) and Mike Adams (11).

Biggest Regret: Mike Adams over Kelechi Osemele

2015 projected grade: 88. Top 3: Alvin Dupree (30), Doran Grant (17) and Gerod Holliman (14)

Biggest Regret: Golson over Quintin Rollins.

Rating: 70.5. If the Steelers get nothing else from this draft but to replace Jarvis Jones with Bud Dupree at OLB and Dupree gives them 7+ sacks and 18 other hurries per season, then they did well. They still need DBs and this draft was Db heavy from them. Holliman was once seen as a top 50 talent but dropped due to poor tackling tape. He could contribute for them if he takes coaching well. Grant and Golston will be contributing day 1 at CB.

13. Houston

2012 grade: 63. Top 3: Whitney Mercilus (16), Ben Jones (13) and Brandon Brooks/Jared Crick (12).

Biggest Regret: Brandon Brooks over Nick Foles or TY Hilton.

2015 projected grade: 76. Top 3: Jaelen Strong (26), Kevin Johnson (24) and Benardrick McKinney (17).

Biggest Regret: Mumphrey over Robert Myers.

Rating: 69.5. The best one can say about Houston’s draft is that they took a lot of gambles, but since the draft is essentially one big gamble one could say that they did it pretty well. Most of their draft picks fell into one category: players who were dropping from their perceived draft spot for various reasons. In that sense, they took three first round picks(Johnson, McKinney and Strong). In another sense, they took guys with a lot of risk.

14. Kansas City

2012 grade: 49. Top 3: Dontari Poe (29), Jeff Allen (10) and Donald Stephenson (7).

Biggest Regret: Jeff Allen over Alshon Jeffery or Bobby Wagner.

2015 projected grade: 81. Top 3: Mitch Morse (28), Ramik Wilson (19) and Marcus Peters (15).

Biggest Regret: Chris Conley over Sammie Coates.

Rating: 65. The Chiefs took their usual gambles under Andy Reid and should hit on a couple of them. It was interesting that they ignored Peters’ last coaching staff in college and talked to the previous staff before taking him. But at least Andy Reid got to twist the knife in the Eagles by convincing the Titans not to trade with the Eagles for Mariota.

15. Tampa Bay

2012 grade: 68. Top 3: LaVonte David (28), Doug Martin (20) and Mark Barron (13).

Biggest Regret: Mark Barron over Luke Kuechly or Ryan Tannehill.

2015 projected grade: 56. Jameis Winston (30), Donovan Smith (10) and Kwon Alexander (6)

Biggest Regret: Donovan Smith over Jake Fisher.

Rating: 62. No one will care about the rest of the picks if Winston is great or a bust. Their draft, and their near future depends on that one pick as it does anytime a QB goes to a bad team at #1 overall. Outside of the Winston pick, the Bucs largely spun their wheels.

16. Denver

2012 grade: 53. Top 3: Derek Wolfe (19), Danny Trevathan (12) and Ronnie Hillman (11).

Biggest Regret: Brock Osweiler over Kelechi Osemele

2015 projected grade: 65. Top 3: Shane Ray (21), Jeff Heuerman (18) and Max Garcia (12)

Biggest Regret: Sambrailo over AJ Cann.

Rating: 59. Solid if unspectacular by Elway. However, putting Shane Ray in a state with legal weed will either led to him failing a bunch of drug tests or eliminate any worry about being arrested with it. Watch Jeff Heuermann: the film guys think he’s a diamond in the rough, once he comes back from his ACL tear.

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About the author
Jon Fox
Just listen to Radiohead when you read my pieces and we will get along just fine.