Fantasy Football Preseason Predictions: QB Edition

Top 20 Quarterbacks: (Last Updated 8-3-15)

Which first tier Quarterback is set up for the best season?

Andrew Luck

Although it would still be recommended to pick Aaron Rodgers over him, Andrew Luck has established himself as one the best fantasy quarterbacks. Last year he set himself up to be a first round pick for this year, and now he has even more players to throw to. Andre Johnson and Phillip Dorsett will help Luck have even more success in 2015 than he did in 2014.

He’ll be throwing to a wide receiver group that includes T.Y. Hilton, Andre Johnson, Donte Moncrief, Phillip Dorsett, and Cris Carter’s son, Duron Carter. That by itself is one of the best receiving units in the NFL. Add Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen to that collection and you have an even better receiving squad. Last year, Luck threw for 4,761 yards and 40 touchdowns, this year he could throw for as much as 5,000 yards and 45 touchdowns.

Which tier 2 Quarterback will be a tier 1 Quarterback by season’s end?

Eli Manning

Throwing to Odell Beckham should be any NFL QB’s dream come true. Add Victor Cruz, Rueben Randle, and James Jones, and Eli Manning should be situated to have a season like Ben Roethlisberger had last year. Big Ben had back to back six touchdown games and threw for 4,952 yards and 32 TDs. Manning had 4,410 yards and 30 touchdowns.

With Beckham and Cruz being healthy for a whole season, Manning could throw for 4,800 yards and 40 touchdowns; those numbers would definitely put him in fantasy football’s top tier of quarterbacks. 

When to draft superstar QBs that are on the decline like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Peyton Manning?

It’s crazy to think that these three are on the decline, especially Brady who is coming off a Super Bowl season. The main reason he is included in this group is because of the 4-game suspension he has that as of now, has not been lifted and most likely won’t be lifted. In a 10-team league, Brady should not be picked before the 9th round unless your league is quarterback heavy (i.e. leagues that start 2 QB's per week). No matter what round you pick him, you will need to pick a backup quarterback. Somebody that you can pick fairly late that could have a successful first five weeks (because Brady’s bye is before he returns from suspension) would be Tampa Bay rookie Jameis Winston. Winston has two great receivers to target in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and his first five games are against the Titans, Saints, Texans, Panthers, and Jaguars, who ranked 15th, 25th, 21st, 11th, and 22nd, respectively, in passing yards against last year.

Brees and Manning on the other hand, should be picked no later than the 7th round in a 10-team league. If they are still available at that point and you need a quarterback, take them. Although they are both on the decline, they are future Hall of Famers that will still put up 4,500 yards and 35 touchdowns, as long as they remain healthy. If you do pick them, you might want to consider picking a backup because those guys are injury risks at this point in their careers.

Winston could be useful here but you might also want to consider a guy like Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill lost his top wide receiver option this offseason when the Dolphins traded Mike Wallace to Minnesota but the team grabbed a top talent in DeVante Parker in the draft, signed a veteran guy in Greg Jennings, signed former Pro Bowl tight end Jordan Cameron, and traded for Kenny Stills who can fill in Wallace’s role as the deep threat. Tannehill showed great signs of improvement in his first season with offensive coordinator, Bill Lazor, and should continue to grow in Lazor’s system.

Which rookie QB is going to have the best rookie campaign?

Jameis Winston

Winston and Marcus Mariota are clearly ahead of everyone else in their draft class for this season due to the fact that they will get the opportunity to start for their teams in Week 1. Winston, however, is a few steps ahead of Mariota in terms of talent. He also has the better receiving weapons, which gives him quite the edge over Mariota. Ultimately, if you are going to pick a rookie QB, make sure it’s Winston. In a keeper league, Mariota is an intriguing option, but still pick Winston over him in that format as well.

Which QB is going to fall down the ranks this season?

Tony Romo

At 35 years old, Tony Romo could be approaching a decline in terms of fantasy stats. He will have Dez Bryant back and Terrance Williams is a good receiver but besides those two the Cowboys are going to be weak at receiver and the NFL has become a league that teams need three good receiving weapons at the least. Also, Jason Witten is getting to the point where he can’t be trusted as much as he used to be and without DeMarco Murray, other teams will be expecting the pass.

Which QB will rise up the ranks this season?

Teddy Bridgewater

Bridgewater was the best rookie QB in 2014. In 2015, he’ll have Adrian Peterson and Mike Wallace as major weapons in his offense. By the end of this season he should be a top 15 fantasy quarterback. If Cordarrelle Patterson can get back to playing how he did in his rookie season, Bridgewater could be a top 10 fantasy quarterback.

What is one bold prediction for the 2015 season at this position?

Nick Foles will have better numbers in St. Louis than Sam Bradford will have in Philadelphia.

Now by no means would it be recommended to pick either of these guys as a starter in a 10 team or even 12 team league but in leagues that start multiple QB’s or leagues that have 16 or more teams, Foles’ value should be considered greater than Bradford’s. The Eagles made it clear this offseason that they will carry a run-heavy offense into the season with the additions of DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews and the subtraction of Jeremy Maclin. Foles and the Rams, however, have a group of receivers that have a ton of potential but have yet to reach it. This could be the year that this happens for a couple of them and that would be monumental for the Rams’ offense. 

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