Locks of the week

Oakland (-3) against Chicago

It feels strange being this confident in the Raiders, but they’ve looked very solid to start the season. Derek Carr and Amari Cooper already have chemistry that reminds fans of Rich Gannon and Tim Brown, and Latavius Murray has shown flashes of being a top end running back. Carr is really looking like a franchise quarterback, and the best quarterback from his draft class so far (Teddy Bridgewater, Blake Bortles, Zach Mettenberger, and Johnny Manziel). The problem with the Raiders is their defense. They’ve given up the most yards so far this season, almost 415 per game. No one expects the Bears offense to be that successful though.

It seems like the Bears have already thrown the towel in for this season. This week, they’ve traded away Jonathan Bostic and Jared Allen. Who’s next? Matt Forte? Their defense has already given up 105 points through 3 games and they just traded 2 of their best defensive players. Derek Carr should have a field day against this depleted defense.

Green Bay (-9) against San Francisco

This one almost seems too easy with the way both teams played in week three. Aaron Rodgers put on a clinic against the Chiefs and the 49ers got blown away by the Arizona Cardinals. Rodgers, along with Tom Brady, looks like the front-runner for MVP. Rodgers is leading the NFL in Quarterback Rating (135.4) and Touchdowns (10). Oh, and he still hasn’t thrown an interception yet. It seemed like he was toying with the Chiefs’ secondary last week, picking them apart, while getting several different receivers involved.

The 49ers had a great first game, beating the Vikings convincingly. Since then, they’ve lost their past 2 games by a combined score of 90-25. Their offense has been in a flux, and their defense has been giving up too many big plays. Green Bay should win this game, and win big.

Denver (-7) against Minnesota

Who would have ever thought that with a Peyton Manning led team, the defense would be their strength? The Broncos, through 3 games, have the #1 ranked offense in football, allowing only 259 yards per game, including only 176 through the air. A pass rush led by Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware will make every quarterback nervous in the pocket. The secondary has also improved from last season, with Aqib Talib and Chris Harris Jr. locking down the outside receivers and T.J. Ward playing center field. Don’t forget, they still have Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders operating outside and Owen Daniels caught his first touchdown pass from Peyton last week. To be a legitimate force in the AFC, the Broncos will have to find their running game, so far averaging only 2.6 yards per carry

Minnesota has looked inconsistent to start this season. But they have Adrian Peterson. As long as they keep feeding him the ball, they should be able to hang around with most teams. The Vikings defense has also been better than expected, giving up around 17 points per game.

All that being said, the Broncos have the advantage in almost every aspect of this game, so they should cover the spread.

The rest of the picks:

Carolina (-3) against Tampa Bay

Cam Newton is an absolute monster, carrying the offense on his back. He’s willed the team to a 3-0 record and atop the NFC South. The defense has been solid without Luke Kuechly, who’s questionable again this week with a concussion. If he plays, the defense should shut down Jameis Winston and the Tampa Bay offense.

Baltimore (-3) against Pittsburgh

The Steelers had one of the best offenses in the NFL, with Ben Roethlisberger leading the attack. Now that he’s hurt, Michael Vick will take over at quarterback. Sure, the Steelers still have plenty of talent on offense with Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, but Vick will be the X-Factor in this game.

Joe Flacco has actually looked confident and consistent so far, and Steve Smith looks like he’s playing every play like it’s his last, fighting for every yard. He fought his way through the Bengals defense for 13 catches, 186 yards, and 2 touchdowns. He should have another big day against this Pittsburgh defense.

New York Jets (-2) against Miami

The Dolphins have been one of the most surprising teams. Many people had them going to the playoffs, or contending for a playoff spot. Adding Suh to a defensive line with Cameron Wake should terrorize opposing offensive lines, but so far, the Dolphins defense only has 1 sack and has forced 2 turnovers. The Jets defense, on the other hand, has looked impressive, especially while shutting down Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts.

Buffalo (-5.5) against New York Giants

The Buffalo Bills are another team that has surprised everyone. Rex Ryan has this defense playing lights out defense against everyone not named Tom Brady (no surprise there). Tyrod Taylor has been the most surprising player in the NFL so far this year. He’s already thrown for 714 yards and 7 touchdowns while adding almost 100 yards rushing. LeSean McCoy hasn’t been healthy to start the season, but Karlos Williams has been solid filling in as the Bills’ starter.

The Giants offense has looked pretty good. Odell Beckham Jr. is continued his rise as one of the best receivers in the game, but their running game has struggled and their defense has given up the second most yards per game in the league.

Cincinnati (-4) against Kansas City

The Bengals are off to a 3-0 start, and rank second in the NFL in yards per game, with a very balanced attack. A.J. Green looks as unstoppable as ever, and Andy Dalton looks like he’s still improving as a passer. This season, he’s looked more comfortable in the pocket and has been going through his progressions more quickly than years before. The defense has seemed pretty average so far, but they should improve throughout the season. 

Kansas City is coming off a loss to the Packers, where the final score didn’t really indicate how bad they looked. Aaron Rodgers picked this secondary to pieces. Granted, Andy Dalton is no Rodgers, but the Bengals receivers should find holes in the depleted Chiefs’ secondary.

Cleveland (+7.5) against San Diego

The Cleveland offense has sputtered with Josh McCown leading the offense, and there have been reports that a few players would rather have Johnny Manziel on the field. He has still completed 58% of his passes for 390 yards. Travis Benjamin has been a nice surprise for the Browns, leading them with 249 receiving yards and 5 total touchdowns.

The Chargers have been another team that has been difficult to read. They beat the Lions but then lost to the Bengals and Vikings. Melvin Gordon has been solid and is proving to be a starting caliber NFL running back. Their defense ranks 28th against the run though, so the Browns running backs should have a solid outing.

Indianapolis (-9) against Jacksonville

The Colts have been the hardest team to read this season. They got beat by the Bills and Jets, and squeaked by the Titans last week (the line was -3 and they couldn’t cover!). If these Colts don’t get it together against the Jaguars, they’re going to be in for a very long season. 

Arizona (-7.5) against St. Louis

The Cardinals are arguably the best team in the NFL. Even though they haven’t really been challenged yet, they’ve blown out the opponents they were supposed to beat. The defensive line of the Rams is probably the best in the NFL, which means Carson Palmer will be running for his life. The crowded backfield of Chris Johnson, Andre Ellington, and David Johnson should help keep the pressure off Palmer. As good as the Rams defense is, the Cardinals defense is probably better.

All odds are according to Bovada. Bovada doesn’t have lines available for Atlanta/Houston, Philadelphia/Washington, and Detroit/Seattle.