This time of year, the NFL’s current slows to a glacial pace. As the frenzy of NFL free agency and the pageantry of the draft wanes, sports media, fans, and teams tally the scores of who “won” the NFL offseason while the drone of OTAs hums in the background. This year, the near universal pick for the top podium seems to be the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars’ offseason dominance began early with splash signings of Malik Jackson, Prince Amukamara, and Kelvin Beachum before surging through the finish line with a gaudy draft day haul including Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack. Their status atop the NFL’s most improved list appears to be well deserved as many view the Jaguars as a team poised to make the next step.

Writer’s note: For clarity, the term “breakout” used in the title of this article is meant to describe teams who project to make the playoffs in 2016 who haven’t been to the playoffs in the last five seasons and/or have a significant regime change (coach, G.M., quarterback) in the last three.

Why They Will

“The next step” can be both a flattering compliment and an ominous omen for both staff and players, alike. The Jaguars are endowed with new expectations not levied on them a year ago. In many respects, the team faces a similar situation the Minnesota Vikings found themselves in a season ago. A promising young quarterback, a revered defensive-minded head coach, and youth strewed up and down the defense are the modern pre-requisite for teams on the rise; and the 2015 Minnesota Vikings legitimized that particular formula for success.

The Jaguars share many elements with the 2015 Vikings. In particular, they have the all-important element of the young, promising quarterback: Blake Bortles, Bortles, who ended the season only second in touchdown passes (35) with Tom Brady, is expected to make yet another leap in 2016. Receivers Allen Hurns (who recently signed a significant extension) and Allen Robinson both proved to be key contributors, the latter tying for the league lead in touchdown receptions. Further, a full season’s worth of tight end Julius Thomas, the addition of running back Chris Ivory, and the development of 2015 second round pick T.J. Yeldon, expects to see a more mature offensive group.

Allen Hurns (left) and Allen Robinson (right) celebrating after one of their combined 24 touchdowns in 2015 | Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images
Allen Hurns (left) and Allen Robinson (right) celebrating after one of their combined 24 touchdowns in 2015 | Mike Ehrmann - Getty Images

The Jaguars finished 14th in total offense in 2015 based on points scored per game, but the logical progression for them is to flirt with top 10 consideration in 2016. Of the teams finishing in the top 10 in 2015, eight made the playoffs. Pivotal to the Jaguars making that key transition rests on the shoulders of aforementioned quarterback Blake Bortles. If Bortles’ play can mature to the point where he’s more conscious of not committing turnovers and improving his passing efficiency, a top 10 offense looks well within reach.

Alongside the strides expected to be made on the offensive side of the ball, the defense is expected to make a positive turn, as well. Known for his defensive mind which was essential to the formation of Seattle’s Legion of Boom, head coach Gus Bradley finally has all the pieces needed to emulate the great Northwest’s defense in North Florida. The addition of Malik Jackson makes him a shoo-in for the all important “elephant end” on the strong side of the defensive line. Further, it return of Sen’Derrick Marks - who will likely play 3-technique - should result in a potent defensive middle.

Perhaps the most underrated offseason addition to the Jaguars defense may prove to be the most important one. Tashaun Gipson was likely brought over to play the Earl Thomas role in the Jacksonville secondary. Although he is a season removed from his most effective year in Cleveland, Gipson’s physical profile is eerily similar to that or Thomas; both of whom are in the 5’10”-11” and 205-pound range.

Why They Won’t

Although vastly improved from a season that set new franchise lows, the most problematic part of the Jaguars’ 2016 optimism centers on the defensive side of the ball. The Jaguars ranked only behind the New Orleans Saints when it came to points allowed per game (28) and ranked 23rd worst in opposing passer rating allowed (97.2). Although the team’s logic of spending both traditional and draft capital on defense is logical, this type of urgency doesn’t always manifest in an immediate return on investment.

While there is a correlation between defensive spending and ranking, much of the top 10 defensive rosters allocated much of their money toward homegrown talent. The top defensive spending in 2015 were the Houston Texans, whose top 5 of 6 salaries on defense belonged to players who were drafted by the team. This is true for many of the teams with both top 10 defenses and top 10 defensive spending. Teams like the Panthers, Seahawks, and Cardinals reserved their big money contracts to homegrown players.

General manager, David Caldwell (left), and owner, Sahid Kahn (right), are both looking forward to a playoff birth in 2016 | Scott Halleran/Getty Images
General manager, David Caldwell (left), and owner, Shahid Kahn (right), are both looking forward to a playoff birth in 2016 | Scott Halleran - Getty Images

While it would be sensible to believe the Jaguars defense will improve from 2nd worst in the NFL, the jump to respectability will likely not take place over the course of one offseason. Both the aforementioned draft picks of Ramsey and Jack will likely play big roles for the defense in 2016 and - despite both being highly talented players - there’s little evidence to support they will turn around a historically bad defense in one season. Perhaps the biggest question mark surrounding the Jaguars’ defense centers around 2015’s third overall selection, Dante Fowler Jr., who sat out the entirety of the 2015 season with a mini-camp season-ending injury.

Apart from the defense, perhaps the both the biggest reason and the biggest obstacle why the Jaguars will make a leap in 2016 has to do with Blake Bortles. Although Bortles threw for 35 touchdowns and over 4,400 yards in 2016, his bulk statistics came at a price. Bortles led the league in interceptions thrown (18) and failed to reach the 60 percent completion rate benchmark. Bortles efforts in 2015 netted him an 88.2 passer rating, which put the team at a nine-point deficit to the defenses 97.2 passer rating allowed. Further, Bortles fumbled the ball 14 times, of which only five were recovered by him or a teammate. On the season, the Jaguars were -14 in turnover differential. Of the 2015 playoff teams, only Denver (-4) wasn’t in the positive in this telling statistic.

Final Tally

Like any team attempting to rise from the ashes of former glory, the Jaguars appear to have an uphill battle at playoff contention in 2016. Even though the Jaguars look to be the most improved team in their division, the AFC South appears to be much more formidable this season. For the first time in seemingly forever, every team in the division appears to have their franchise quarterback for the next decade, and the Jaguars may have the inside track when it comes to weapons on offense.

The Jaguars 2016 success will ultimately rest in both the collective hands of the defense and the right arm of Blake Bortles. Even if everything stays the same and the defense improved to being closer to a middle of the pack, the Jaguars should see a marketed improvement from their 5-11 campaign in 2015. Still, with head coach Gus Bradley teetering on a one-year extension, the franchise is clearly pining for more than a modest improvement.

Although the Jaguars are on the right track, going the wildcard route may be a perilous proposition given the AFC’s fairly competitive divisions. If the Jaguars can’t win the AFC South outright, they may be the odd men out when it comes time to solidify seedings. At the end of the day, the Jags may not correct all their 2015 woes in time to make a play for January.


Projected Record: 8-8, miss playoffs

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About the author
Richard Sena
I am a writer located in Boca Raton, Florida. I am a graduate of Florida Atlantic University and cover both local and national football related stories.