For the first time since John Harbaugh took over as head coach in 2008, the Baltimore Ravens finished with a losing record last season, going 5-11 with the caveat of 22 season-ending injuries dooming them to a frustrating season.
Going into the 2016 campaign, Harbaugh and the Ravens have a chance to get the team back on track and reverse the bad luck headed their way.
Headlines
Leading passer: Joe Flacco (64.4 completion percentage, 2,791 yards, 14 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 40.86 total QBR)
Leading receiver: Kamar Aiken (75 catches, 944 yards, five touchdowns)
Leading rusher: Justin Forsett (151 carries, 641 rushing yards, 4.2 yards per carry, two touchdowns)
By far, the biggest storyline for the Ravens coming into this year is the return of Flacco. The former Super Bowl MVP started every game for Baltimore dating since the team drafted him 18th overall in 2008 (ironically enough, also coming off a disappointing 5-11 season). Then he tore his ACL in a 16-13 victory over the St. Louis Rams. Flacco looks to show that his knee is 100 percent while finally proving to be worth his large salary.
Last year, wide receiver Steve Smith Sr. announced his intention to retire following the 2015 season. The former Carolina Panther appeared to be on pace for another age-defying season until he tore his Achilles tendon in week seven against the San Diego Chargers. Smith changed his mind before the end of the year and was activated from the PUP list last week. Smith hopes to re-establish himself as the number one option in the Ravens' passing attack.
Disappointment in Charm City
Last year's Ravens carried the same lofty expectations common for Harbaugh's teams, both locally and nationally. After all, this was a team that went 10-6 in 2014, destroyed the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field on wild card weekend and held two 14 point leads against the New England Patriots in Foxborough in the divisional round. Those high hopes went away little by little as last season went on. Before their 35-6 week 14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks, all of the Ravens’ games were decided by eight points or less. In fact, the losses to Seattle and the Kansas City Chiefs represented the Ravens only games decided by more than eight points. The unfortunate luck in close games (where the Ravens went 5-9) caused Baltimore to underperform their expected wins by 1.1 games according to Pro Football Reference.
Accompanying the putrid luck in close games was equally horrendous fortunes in health. The Ravens placed 22 players on season-ending injured reserve last year, enough to field a starting offense and defense. Among the notable names Flacco, Smith, running back Justin Forsett (broken arm, week 11) and defensive end Terrell Suggs (Achilles tear, week one). These injuries do not include losing first round pick Breshad Perriman to a knee surgery before taking a single snap and oft-injured tight end Dennis Pitta. The end result was a team that resembled a competitive NFL team less and less as the season went on.
The team did not play that well before the injuries mounted. Although the Ravens finished eighth in the NFL in pass yards per game, it masked a greater incompetence at the position. Before injuring his knee, Flacco compiled a total QBR of 40.86 according to Pro Football Reference, a QBR of 50 is considered league average. Only Nick Foles finished with a lower QBR than Flacco. "Joe Cool's" replacements fared no better. Matt Schaub started the next two games and had a 34.3 QBR before going down with a chest injury. Ryan Mallett and Jimmy Clausen combined to throw for 224.2 yards per game, 4 touchdowns, and 5 picks. Flacco was his usual inconsistent self last season, but he looked like an All-Pro compared ho his backups.
When Smith went down, Kamar Aiken emerged as the team's number one target. The former undrafted free agent set career highs in targets (127), catches (75), yards (944), and touchdowns (5). No other Ravens wideout had more than 46 catches and 670 yards (Smith's numbers before the injury). In fact, Baltimore's leading pass catchers after Smith were two running backs, two tight ends, and a fullback, all before the next receiver. Tight end Crockett Gilmore was a bright spot before succumbing to a back injury. Gilmore had 33 catches for 412 yards and four touchdowns before going down.
Last year, the Ravens attempted more passes than any team in football last year. Part of the reason for this was the team being behind in many of their games. The other part was their anemic run game. Baltimore finished 27th in rush yards per game and 24th in yards per carry. Forsett played well before his injury but was not as good as he did in 2014. The former California Golden Bear saw his YPC average drop from 5.4 in 2014 to 4.2 last year. Forsett's 641 yards in 10 games still led the team in rushing. Both Javorius Allen and Terrence West failed to reach the league average four yards per carry mark in Forsett's absence.
The underperformance of the offense was not due to a lackluster offensive line. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens O-line ranked second in adjusted sack rate, which measures sacks per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance and opponent. Only the Rams blocked better on passing plays. Baltimore was a little worse opening up holes for the backs, though they were not terrible. Baltimore ranked 14th in adjusted line yards.
Defensively, the Ravens ranked eighth in yards allowed per game but finished 24th in points allowed, 22nd in yards allowed per play, and 24th in points allowed per game. In particular, the Ravens ranked 24th in pass defense, allowed the sixth-highest passer rating, and produced the lowest interception percentage in the league. Even in the best years of the Harbaugh era, the secondary was a weak spot. Last season was no different. The Ravens finished 10th in the NFL in sacks even after losing Suggs in week one.
Against the run, Baltimore ranked 12th in yards allowed per game and 14th in yards per attempt.
Ravens Offseason
Aside from draft picks and a couple of signings, the Ravens of 2016 look similar to last year's team, albeit healthier. General manager Ozzie Newsome used the draft to add depth to both sides of the line. The Ravens used their first-round pick to select offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley out of Notre Dame. Stanley came as a well-regarded pass blocker and has a bright future on the Baltimore line for years to come.
Baltimore spent their second round pick on a potential replacement for Suggs. The Ravens selected defensive end/outside linebacker Kamalei Correa out of Boise State. Newsome next selected defensive end/tackle Bronson Kaufusi out of BYU. Baltimore spent their five fourth round picks on a cornerback (Tavon Young), a wideout (Chris Moore), and offensive tackle (Alex Lewis), a defensive tackle (Willie Henry), and a running back (Kenneth Dixon). The Ravens spent their fifth-round pick on another tweener, linebacker/lineman Matt Judon out of Grand Valley State.
The Ravens used their final two picks on Virginia cornerback Maurice Canady and Navy quarterback Keenan Reynolds. Last year, Reynolds broke the career rushing touchdowns record for NCAA Division I. The Antioch, Tennessee native finished fifth in Heisman Trophy voting, the highest a service academy player finished since Roger Staubach in 1963. The Ravens drafted Reynolds as a wide receiver.
The impactful losses for the Ravens came on offense. The team lost offensive tackle/guard Kelechi Osemele to free agency. The Houston native signed with the Oakland Raiders on a five-year, $58.5 million deal, taking a shot at the team on the way out. Baltimore then released tackle Eugene Monroe in June. Monroe claims the team let him go because of his stance on medicinal marijuana, which Ravens officials and Harbaugh denies. Monroe retired from football on July 21st.
On defense, the team lost linebacker Daryl Smith and defensive end Chris Canty to free agency. Smith signed a one-year deal with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Canty remains a free agent. The team released safety Will Hill once they learned he was going to face discipline from the league. The team lost cornerback Tray Walker under more tragic circumstances. Walker passed away due to injuries from a motorcycle accident on March 18th.
The Ravens attempted to address the weaknesses at receiver and in the secondary through free agency. The team signed deep threat Mike Wallace to a two-year, $11.5 million deal. The team added depth at tight end, signing Benjamin Watson to a two-year, eight-million-dollar pact. Cornerback Jerraud Powers spurned the New York Giants to sign a one-year deal with the Ravens. All-Pro safety Eric Weddle represents the prize signing of the offseason. Weddle agreed to a four-year, $26 million deal.
Strengths/Weaknesses
Uncertainty is the biggest theme for the Ravens this year. The Ravens' offensive and defensive lines remain their greatest strengths. Even with the losses of Monroe and Osemele, Baltimore's front five still sports one of the best guards in football in Marshal Yanda. Stanley is the projected starter in Monroe's right tackle spot. Past those two, there is a great deal of uncertainty.
I would question any teams receiving core if their projected number one target is a 37-year-old coming off an Achilles tear. Somehow, the receivers behind Smith have just as many question marks. Wallace tied his career low in receptions (39) and set a career low in yards (473) and touchdowns (2) with the Minnesota Vikings. Wallace also carries a reputation for checking out of games if he does not get a ton of touches. Perriman partially tore his ACL in the spring and is recovering from a torn PCL from last season. He says he will be ready for week one. Tight end looked a little more promising before Watson tore his Achilles against the Detroit Lions in the preseason. Gilmore and Maxx Williams must step up in his absence, both men showed flashes. Forsett must prove that 2014 was not a product of Gary Kubiak's zone run system. A strong running game is perhaps the biggest key to Flacco's potential success.
Even before his ACL injury, critics of Flacco chided his pedestrian play under center despite owning one of the largest salaries in the league. Flacco has never made the Pro-Bowl, never been an All-Pro, never passed for 4,000 yards, never threw more than 27 touchdowns, and only passed a 90 QB rating twice. Flacco has one of the strongest arms in the NFL but struggles with accuracy. Flacco's best year came in 2014 using play action fakes. Flacco needs good pieces around him to be at his best. The potential for a top ten offense is there. An offense in the bottom third would not be surprising either.
The uncertainty extends to the defense. Defensive tackles Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan look to replicate their performances toward the end of 2014 when they replaced the suspended Haloti Ngata. Former Pro Bowl linebacker C.J. Mosley was not as good as he was two seasons ago. Mosley's tackles dropped from 99 in 2014 to 77 last year. It remains to be seen if Suggs and Elvis Dumervil can return to their previous forms. In 2014, Suggs and Dumervil combined for 29 sacks (Suggs had 12, Dumervil had 17). However, both men are in their 30's and aren't getting any younger. Suggs is coming off the second Achilles tear of his career. It is hard enough coming back from one Achilles tear, let alone two. With Suggs gone, Dumervil registered only six sacks last year. If either or both fail to return to form, there is not a lot of experience behind them.
The secondary remains the biggest weakness. When Jimmy Smith was not injured last year, he was getting burned by the opposing team's top receiver. Shareece Wright played surprisingly well last year and projects to be the number two corner according to Roster Resource. Joining Weddle at safety is converted cornerback Lardarius Webb. Webb, once considered a lockdown corner, has slowed in recent years due to injuries. The Southern Mississippi product hopes to replicate the success Charles Woodson enjoyed moving to safety.
Outlook
The Ravens are tied for the 19th hardest schedule this season according to NFL.com. They only play one 2015 playoff team before their week eight bye and one non-playoff team with a winning record (New York Jets). The one playoff team, Washington, failed to beat a single team with a winning record last year. It will not be a walk in the park, as Oakland and the Jacksonville Jaguars are improved teams. Furthermore, the Ravens only face two top 10 defenses from 2015 this year (New England and the Jets). A winning record before the bye is reasonable.
After the break, the schedule muscles up, four games against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals and a Monday night date at Foxborough against the Patriots. Baltimore's secondary faces tough tests in the first half, opposing the likes of Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Amari Cooper, Brandon Marshall, Sammy Watkins, and Odell Beckham Jr. The standout game for the Ravens following the bye aside from the divisional games is the December 12 matchup in New England. It will be the Ravens first trip to Gillette Stadium since they blew two 14 point leads in the 2015 Divisional Round. Week one also presents intrigue, as former Ravens defensive coordinator Rex Ryan returns to Baltimore with the Buffalo Bills. The game also marks the return of Flacco's former backup, Tyrod Taylor, coming off a breakout season.
Last year was a weird one in multiple ways for the Ravens. There is little chance the team is going to lose 22 players to injured reserve again. There is also a good chance the Ravens don't have as many, let alone lose as many close games as they did last season. When healthy, the Ravens are a playoff team, but not as good as the Steelers or the Bengals who they have to play four times this year. There are too many question marks on both sides of the ball to pick Baltimore to win the division. However, their easier schedule and full strength roster make the Ravens a strong bounce back candidate and safe wild card team.
Final projected record: 10-6, wild card berth