Every NFL season, there is a division or two that just doesn't have any good teams. Last year, the AFC South, along with the NFC East, was one of those. The Houston Texans won the division with a 9-7 record, beating out the 8-8 Indianapolis Colts, the 5-11 Jacksonville Jaguars, and the 3-13 Tennessee Titans.
Good news, the division as a whole is bound to be better in 2016. No, this isn't misplaced confidence; it's legitimate. But first, let's take a look at why the AFC South performed so poorly last season.
2015 AFC South
Indianapolis was the favorite to win the division coming into the year with the Texans on the outside looking but not far behind. The Colts were coming off an 11-5 season, retaining most of the roster and with their star quarterback Andrew Luck having yet another year of experience under his belt. Houston, on the other hand, had to settle for Brian Hoyer as their starter after Ryan Fitzpatrick left; they had a great defense and a good running back despite injury problems with Arian Foster, but most people thought their passing game would nonexistent.
As for the Jaguars, they were a young team still rebuilding from the Jack Del Rio days. Blake Bortles was still slowly developing, the running game was questionable, and the defense was mediocre at best. Meanwhile, most people predicted that the Titans would be at the bottom of the division. They had just drafted Marcus Mariota and had no weapons surrounding him. Optimism was high for the young QB, but expectations for the team were low because of the terrible core.
Injuries, for the most part, were what marred the teams. The Colts lost Luck for the last seven weeks of the year, enough to completely derail the team. Houston lost Foster, Duane Brown, Hoyer for a few games, and Kareem Jackson. T.J. Yeldon, the Jaguars' starting running back, had injury problems late in the year. And Mariota missed four games for the Titans.
While these injury problems are not a good enough reason to explain the AFC South's showing, they definitely played a role. The season also exposed weaknesses in every single one of the teams, even in the Colts and Texans, who were both supposed to be rock-solid. The division went up against the NFC South, a division whose only good team was the Carolina Panthers, and the AFC East, a much more consistent division with the New England Patriots leading the way.
It wasn't like their schedule was particularly hard; they were playing each as well as the three poorer teams of the NFC South. Last season was honestly that bad because three of the four teams were still in rebuilding mode.
2016 AFC South
Now to explain why this is a much more promising year, we start with the Jaguars, a dark horse in the AFC alongside the Oakland Raiders. Last season, Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns developed a great passing attack with Blake Bortles, and now adding a healthy Julius Thomas, who was hindered throughout 2015, and newly-signed running back Chris Ivory alongside Yeldon, this offense is potent. Not to mention, they also added Malik Jackson, TaShaun Gipson, Prince Amukamara, and Myles Jack on the defensive side of the ball.
For the Colts, Luck is back with a new contract and a bad year behind him; you know he's got a lot of pressure on his shoulders and he will use it as fuel. The team overall will see its struggles but Luck throwing to T.Y. Hilton and Donte Moncrief could prove dangerous. Frank Gore was nice in the rushing game, but his useful years are dwindling. The defense is very solid as well, so they'll still be strong as a whole.
The Titans still need a few years of improvement, but Mariota will have improved and will make better decisions out in the pocket. Tennessee didn't make many offseason moves, just worked on saving money until the time is right. They will be the worst team in the division and honestly might compete for the worst spot in the league to snag another number one pick in the 2017 NFL Draft.
Finally, the Texans made big moves in the offseason by signing Lamar Miller and Brock Osweiler, hopefully improving an offense that was lackluster last year. They know their defense is great, so they're trying to make the offense dynamic and explosive. They've got a weapon in DeAndre Hopkins and drafted both Will Fuller and Braxton Miller for deep threats to take some of the pressure off of Osweiler and Hopkins. There are a lot of question marks because the team is pretty young, but they are definitely improving and will compete for the Super Bowl in a couple of years.
Predictions
The Texans will go 10-6 and earn the AFC South crown and its resulting playoff spot. Their offense improved a lot, and while it does need time to click and grow together, it is enough to make them the best of a relatively mediocre yet improving division.
This may be a controversial prediction, but watch the Jaguars get second in the division, barely behind the Texans. They improved a lot over the offseason and Bortles is going to have another great year at quarterback. The running game will be better as they can switch up running styles between Yeldon and Ivory. Finally, the defense has been enhanced nicely, and, as a result, they will finish 9-7 and compete for the last Wild Card spot.
The Colts will only do slightly worse than last season. Luck will be coming back with a vengeance, but their offensive weapons, as well as their defense as a whole, aren't good enough to make them competitive once again. They will end up finishing 7-9 and Chuck Pagano will be fired.
Finally, there are the Titans. Oh boy, the Titans. Mariota's a sweet, young quarterback - but the team will be horrible yet again. Tennessee went 3-13 a year ago and will once again be competing for the number one pick. It will take a few years to rebuild, but they have started the process and will continue because, honestly, they don't have a choice at this point.