Rafael Nadal, currently ranked tenth in the world, takes to the clay at the Bet-at-Home Open German Tennis Championships for the first time since 2008 perhaps hoping to find his A game prior to the US Open. His decision to play at this ATP 500 tournament instead of a hard court event seems calculated and given his lackluster season to date, appears aimed at gaining much needed confidence as the final slam of the year approaches.
Incredulously, the Spaniard has yet to win a European clay court tournament this season. Nadal, with just two titles this year – Buenos Aires on clay and Stuttgart on grass – is seeded first in Hamburg and will face Andreas Seppi in the semis having beaten Pablo Cuevas in straights in the quarterfinals.
Seppi, currently ranked 26th in the world, is 20-15 on the season with an impressive win over Roger Federer last January in the third round at the Australian Open. He has performed well on all surfaces with two fourth round appearances at the Australian Open in addition to two third round appearances at the US Open. His best result on the dirt at Roland Garros remains the fourth round in 2012 for John Isner took him out this year in the first round in straights.
Nadal and Seppi have played six times, four of them on clay. The Spaniard leads their head to head 5-1; Seppi’s sole victory was on hard courts in 2008 in Rotterdam. They last time they did battle on the dirt, Nadal dismantled the Italian in straight sets 6-1, 6-3 in the round of sixteen at the 2014 Monte Carlo Rolex Masters.
This writer is not convinced the score line in Hamburg tomorrow will be identical; Seppi is playing with an abundance of confidence having beaten Federer in January in addition to competing well against the Swiss number one on grass in the final of the Gerry Weber Open in Halle last month.
In addition to his notable results this season, Seppi has made the semis twice before (2008, 2010) in Hamburg. Conversely, Nadal is in desperate need of self-belief having been dismantled in straights by Novak Djokovic in the quarters at the French Open and sent packing in the second round by Dustin Brown at the All-England Club.
Prediction: Seppi in three sets.
Fabio Fognini - Lucas Pouille
Fabio Fognini, with two wins over Nadal on clay this season (Rio, Barcelona), is similarly playing with a wealth of confidence. Currently ranked 33rd in the world and seeded 8th in Hamburg, Italy's number two won this event in 2013 and is still in search of his first title this season. His ranking has dropped considerably from a career high of thirteen which he attained in March of last year. The habitually erratic Italian is seeking his first semifinal since February in Rio de Janeiro where he lost the final in straight sets to David Ferrer.
Fognini’s semifinal opponent is the upwardly mobile young Frenchman, Lucas Pouille who came through qualifying. In the previous round, Pouille defeated his countryman Benoit Paire, ending a seven-match win streak since winning his first ATP World Tour title at the Swedish Open last week in Bastad.
Pouille, just twenty-one years of age, is currently ranked 85th in the world and will be meeting Fognini for just the second time. Their previous encounter last fall was on an indoor hard court at the Paris Masters. Undoubtedly, Fognini will be determined to ensure that tomorrow he prevails having lost that match in two exceedingly close tie-break sets. Although he will be extremely motivated, this writer anticipates the upset.
Prediction: Pouille in three sets.