The final major of the year kicks off Monday at Flushing Meadows. There are many intriguing storylines with the draw such as Rafael Nadal’s “Draw of Doom”, Andy Murray’s opening match with Nick Kyrgios, Kei Nishikori’s wide open quarter and much more.
There are three major favorites heading into the US Open. First off is world number one Novak Djokovic. The Serb has had a strong showing on the American hard courts this summer. He made the finals of both the Rogers Cup and the Western & Southern Open. He lost both finals to Andy Murray and Roger Federer respectively.
The second favorite is the Swiss maestro and 17-time Grand Slam champion Roger Federer. Federer looked absolutely vintage in Cincinnati to claim his 7th Masters title in the Queen City. Federer didn’t drop a set en route to that title and even began taking serves from 10-12 feet inside the baseline, taking them as half-volleys as he continues to defy the tennis age barrier.
Finally, the last favorite is Andy Murray. The Brit captured the Emirates US Open Series title thanks to Djokovic’s final loss in Cincinnati added to his semifinal appearance in Cincy and title in Montreal. The Brit overcame his demons against Djokovic in the final in Canada where the Serb forced a third set, but he staved off multiple break points and held in a 18-minute fifth game to keep Djokovic a break down as he finally took down Djokovic for the first time since the 2013 Wimbledon final.
With the draw officially done after the qualifying matches have been played, it’s time to take a look at the draw as a whole and see who gets out of each quarter and the intriguing first round matches.
Novak Djokovic’s quarter
World number one Novak Djokovic opens his US Open campaign against Brazil’s Joao Souza. That should be a pretty straightforward match for the Serb. His second round match could be tricky as he potentially faces Canada’s Vasek Pospisil. The Canadian has some serious firepower on the serve and forehand, but Djokovic should be able to neutralize the serve since he is the world’s best returner.
25th-seeded Italian Andreas Seppi always seems to get drawn with the top guns in the third round. In Australia, he faced off against Roger Federer and upset him and at Wimbledon, he pushed Andy Murray to four sets. Now, he’s got Djokovic in his section but nothing too problematic for Djokovic. The first major challenge could be 14th-seeded David Goffin, that’s if he gets through his tricky section which has 23rd-seeded Roberto Bautista Agut and the fiery Pole Jerzy Janowicz. Goffin held a double break lead in the third against Djokovic at the Western & Southern Open, but the world number one showed his resiliency and clawed his way back to take the match before losing in the final to one Roger Federer.
Rafael Nadal was placed in the Serb’s quarter for the second time this year in Grand Slams (the French Open). However, Nadal’s struggles are very much evident on the year and were highlighted by his lack of clay court titles and early exit in Cincinnati to Feliciano Lopez. His first round match is what one would call a “popcorn” match. A “popcorn” match is one where you’ll be on the edge of your seat for because it is a high-quality opening round match. He faces off against 18-year-old Borna Coric. The Croat defeated the former world number one at the Swiss Indoors in Basel last year. Although Nadal dealt with appendicitis at the time, the teen sensation clearly has the weapons to trouble Nadal as he overpowered him in Basel last year.
Nadal’s draw gets a bit easier in the second round where he could face Diego Schwartzman or qualifier Elias Ymer. Ymer has plenty of match play at Flushing Meadows getting through qualifying to become the first man to qualify for all four majors since Frank Dancevic did it in 2011. 32nd-seeded Fabio Fognini knows Nadal all too well this year. They’ve met three times this season with the Italian winning twice, however, Fognini has yet to win a hard court match all year with his last win coming nearly a year ago in Valencia.
Milos Raonic is the potential round of 16 opponent for the world number eight. The Canadian, who is seeded 10th, knocked off Nadal in a memorable match in Indian Wells where the the Spaniard had a multitude of match points in the second set tiebreaker before Raonic stormed back to take it in three. The former Wimbledon semifinalist should be favorite to get out of his mini-section which has Mardy Fish, who is retiring after the tournament, the dangerous yet wild Fernando Verdasco, Tommy Haas, and 18th-seeded Feliciano Lopez. Lopez, who we said knocked off Nadal early in Cincinnati, has never had the best time on hard courts, with his best success coming on grass courts.
There are three Americans in this section of the draw. Lone American qualifier Tommy Paul meets Andreas Seppi in his opening round match. The teen was the French Open junior champion this year. Tim Smyczek meets Milos Raonic. Most remember Smyczek for his memorable match in the second round of the Australian Open this year against Nadal. He led two sets to one and showed a fantastic act of sportsmanship giving Nadal a first serve in a tense moment in the decisive set when the Spaniard was disrupted by a crowd member. The final American in this section is American Steve Johnson. Johnson has had his best showing in a major at the US Open. He reached the third round in 2012 and matched those this year at the Australian Open and French Open.
A potential Nadal-Djokovic quarterfinal is what everybody wants to see even if Nadal is still not fully himself. These two have had epic clashes at majors, and the 2013 US Open was one of them. People want to see something like their 2012 Australian Open final rather than a one-way beatdown like this year’s French Open quarterfinal where the world number one broke Nadal’s spirits with a 6-2 third set to take the victory. It may be a slow but steady process for the former world number one, but let’s hope we’re in for a delightful treat should they meet in the quarterfinals.
Semifinalist: Novak Djokovic
First round matches to watch for: Rafael Nadal - Borna Coric, Teymuraz Gabashvili - Pablo Andujar, Roberto Bautista Agut - Pierre-Hugues Herbert, Fernando Verdasco - Tommy Haas, Fabio Fognini - Steve Johnson
Kei Nishikori’s quarter
Last year’s US Open runner-up Kei Nishikori leads the way in this quarter. He has an intriguing opening round match against Frenchman Benoit Paire. Paire possesses dangerous groundstrokes and could cause Nishikori major problems. This quarter has plenty of talent in it though making it extremely wide open. It contains Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Grigor Dimitrov, last year’s US Open winner Marin Cilic, Jeremy Chardy, and seventh-seeded David Ferrer.
Nishikori’s potential third round opponent could be 26th-seeded Tommy Robredo, but Sam Groth or Alexandr Dolgopolov could provide danger as well. Groth has a booming serve while Dolgopolov has had a strong hard court summer including serving for a spot in the final against Djokovic in the second set tiebreak.
The four men mentioned above earlier, they each have their own unique qualities that will help them at Flushing Meadows to potentially get off the mark. For Monfils, the 16th seed, he has a whole arsenal of shots, but the real question is, will he choose to play smartly or entertain the crowd in the Big Apple. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, another Frenchman and seeded 19th, has a tremendous serve and forehand to really push his opponents. Tsonga has traditionally gotten hot in tournaments where no one expected him to make some noise, ala Rogers Cup last year, so it shouldn’t be a shocker if you see Tsonga fire his way to the semis.
Cilic, the ninth seed, is the defending US Open champion and has his serve working for him. When his serve is on like it was in Flushing Meadows last year, he is nearly unstoppable. In the semifinals, he made Roger Federer look extremely average and to do that on such a grand stage, says something about Cilic as he fired his way to his maiden major title. Dimitrov, who is seeded 17th, clearly has all the tools to have success at majors. With the moniker “Baby Fed”, the Bulgarian has the shots but still needs to work on his mental fortitude to close out matches. A perfect example of that would be in Cincinnati against Andy Murray. Dimitrov had a double break lead in the decisive set and could not close it out, and that comes down to his mental struggles.
Finally it is Jeremy Chardy. The Frenchman earned his seeding, 27, by going on a stunning run at the Rogers Cup as he made the semifinals. Like his fellow Frenchman in this section, his serve and forehand make him a threat. David Ferrer was mentioned as well, but there are still plenty of question marks about him. The Spanish number one who is seeded seventh, has not played a match since Nottingham back in June which was a lead-up to Wimbledon. He’s withdrawn from Wimbledon and both Masters 1000 events leading up to the US Open due to a nagging elbow injury which gives serious concerns if he is 100 percent. He was seen practicing at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center with a heavy duty elbow strap.
Even with all the talk of him being hurt, Ferrer is still the other top seed in this section and is a true warrior so he is not one to ever back down from a “fight”. He’ll open up against Radu Albot of Moldova. His potential second round match is the more tricky one though if he faces Martin Klizan. The Slovakian will use his lefty serve and forehand to create some acute angles and force the Spaniard to run and play extra shots which will further damage his elbow.
The lone American in this section is Ryan Shane. The Virginia Cavalier won the NCAA Men’s Singles Title last year which earned him his wildcard into the US Open. He’ll open up with Jeremy Chardy.
All in all, this is still Nishikori’s quarter to lose. Out of all of these men, the Japan number one had the best hard court summer with a title at the Citi Open and a semifinals appearance in Canada. Keep in mind that Nishikori did not play a single match last year on the American hard courts before making his run to the finals so this extra match time is good for him. A hip injury which caused him to pull out of Cincinnati is a slight concern but like it was mentioned earlier, an injury prevented from getting any match play in last year before making the finals.
Semifinalist: Kei Nishikori
First round matches to watch for: Kei Nishikori - Benoit Paire, Sam Groth - Alexandr Dolgopolov, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - Jarkko Nieminen, Lucas Lacko - Marcel Granollers, Rendy Lu - Mikhail Kukushkin, Florian Mayer - Martin Klizan
Andy Murray’s quarter
Andy Murray has had a stellar summer this year. He finally overcame his demons against Djokovic in the Rogers Cup final and made the semifinals in Cincinnati. He may have lost early in DC but put that behind him quickly with his strong showings at the Masters 1000 events. He also has a “popcorn” match in his opening match. He kicks off his tournament against 20-year-old Nick Kyrgios. The Australian was handed a conditional one-month suspension and $25,000 fine for his sledge of Stan Wawrinka during their Rogers Cup match. These two met in the Australian Open quarterfinal this year and at the French Open. The veteran cruised through both matches.
Out of the top seeds, Murray also has quite the daunting draw. Kyrgios to open up and could meet Adrian Mannarino, Thomaz Bellucci, and Kevin Anderson or Dominic Thiem in the fourth round. Mannarino is a tricky lefty but shouldn’t be too problematic for the Brit. Bellucci, the 30th seed, shouldn’t be any problem either.
Kevin Anderson or Dominic Thiem could pose major problems though. Anderson, the 15th seed, has a massive serve and isn’t afraid of pushing the big guns. He nearly took out Djokovic at the All England Club in the round of 16. Thiem, seeded 20th, led Murray in Miami by a set before losing to him at Crandon Park. The Austrian is average on the forehand and serve but his one-handed backhand is absolutely brilliant; evolving to be one of the best ones on tour.
Stan Wawrinka is the other top seed and is projected to meet Murray in the quarterfinals. The Swiss number two has dealt with an lower back injury and was involved in the Kyrgios sledge. His lower back seems to be fine, but he said after his quarterfinal loss to Djokovic in Cincy that he is still a bit mentally worn out as the Serb reeled off seven of the final eight games to take the match in straights. Unlike Murray, Wawrinka’s section should pose him no problems whatsoever. He could potentially meet 28th-seeded American Jack Sock in the third round, but the American doesn’t really have the firepower on both sides to compete with the French Open champion.
22nd-seeded Viktor Troicki is also in this section along with 11th-seeded Gilles Simon. Troicki has yet to win a match since his second week showing at Wimbledon so it would not be a surprise to see him knocked out in the first couple of rounds. Frenchman Simon has once again had a steady year. He doesn’t have anything that will wow you in any departments, but his consistency and movement can really wear you down.
The one player who can really surprise everyone because of his talent is Ernests Gulbis. The Latvian is unseeded due to his low ranking, but in a section of a draw where there are question marks about the top players, he could somehow sneak his way into the round of 16 or even the quarterfinals if he gets his forehand going. Gulbis is not your prototypical big man with the solid serve and forehand. His forehand is his much weaker wing with a peculiar setup motion, but his backhand is rock solid, one of the better two-handers on the tour for someone at his ranking.
There are tons of Americans in this section of the draw. We already talked about Jack Sock, and he faces Victor Estrella Burgos in the opening round. Wildcard Frances Tiafoe will meet Troicki in his opener in a match to watch for since the Serb is struggling. Another wildcard in Ryan Harrison meets Rajeev Ram in the first round. Donald Young will meet Gilles Simon to start, and wildcard Austin Krajicek will meet Colombian Santiago Giraldo in his opening round.
In terms of the draw, it looks like Wawrinka has the much easier section. He’s the only one in that section that could truly provide a major threat to Murray. Murray on the other hand, has quite an arduous task to get to the quarterfinals. It wouldn’t be a surprise at all to see him drop a set or two along the way to potentially meeting Wawrinka. The talent Murray sees though will be of good use to him as he’ll face similar type players along his potential journey to the finals. The Brit is one of the three comprehensive US Open favorites so he should be in for the ride to make the semifinals.
Semifinalist: Andy Murray
First round matches to watch for: Viktor Troicki - Frances Tiafoe, Ernests Gulbis - Aljaz Bedene, Kevin Anderson - Andrey Rublev, Thomaz Bellucci - James Ward, Nick Kyrgios - Andy Murray, Paul-Henri Mathieu - Yoshihito Nishioka
Roger Federer’s quarter
Roger Federer rounds out the top four seeds at the US Open with him, as the number two seed, on the opposite side of world number one Novak Djokovic. In terms of the draw, his section isn’t too bad at all. He should see his way to at least the quarterfinals pretty handily. He opens up his campaign against good friend Leonardo Mayer of Argentina. The two practiced together a couple of days ago so the Swiss number one isn’t too worried about dispatching Mayer. If we flashback to the last year’s Shanghai Masters, the Argentine had five match points against Federer in their second round match. If Mayer converts one of those, he gets seeded at the US Open because he missed out on a seed by 25 points. Talk about some hard luck for the Argentine.
Cypriot Marcos Baghdatis or Belgian Steve Darcis could meet Federer in the second round, but once again, it should be another quick task for the maestro. 29th-seeded German Philipp Kohlschreiber is his potential third round opponent. These two have had a history of entertaining matches due to their one-handed backhands, but the Swiss’ firepower truly just overwhelms the German in the end. Another big server in 13th-seeded John Isner or 21st-seeded Ivo Karlovic could meet the second-seeded Swiss in the fourth round. Federer has never really had a problem dealing with the big men on tour so Isner shouldn’t be much of a worry.
Federer’s potential quarterfinalist is sixth-seeded Tomas Berdych. The Czech has once again, earned the results to keep him inside the top ten, but has struggled to put it together for a whole tournament because he has yet to win a title on the season. His potential third round match is against Guillermo Garcia-Lopez or Janko Tipsarevic. Both men have failed to put up any significant results since Wimbledon so whoever wins their opening round matchup will have tons of confidence should they get to the third round.
12th-seeded Richard Gasquet is Berdych’s potential fourth round opponent. However, he has quite the uphill battle to get there in what is one of the more stacked mini-sections of the draw. He opens up against Thanasi Kokkinakis of Australia. Kokkinakis was indirectly involved in the Kyrgios sledge as the older Aussie sold out his best friend. These two met a couple weeks ago in Cincinnati where Kokkinakis had the opening set tiebreak on his racket but failed to close it out as Gasquet took the match in straight sets.
Also in this section is 2001 US Open champion Lleyton Hewitt. This is the Aussie’s last US Open as he is set to retire at his home slam at Melbourne Park next January. German Dustin Brown is in this section as well as 24th-seeded Bernard Tomic. Brown famously knocked Nadal out of Wimbledon this year in the second round, serving him off the court just like we have seen the past three Wimbledons before this year when Rosol, Darcis, and Kyrgios all served the two-time Wimbledon champ out of the tournament. Tomic brings quite an eclectic game when playing. The Aussie has immense talent but his on-court antics and off-court troubles are the main talking points of the town. He has an old school style forehand and is often lackadaisical when moving as he is often caught flat-footed at inopportune times.
The mini-section with Berdych in it has a load of Americans in it. Berdych kicks off his US Open facing Bjorn Fratangelo. Two other Americans are also in this section as Denis Kudla and Sam Querrey faceoff against Jurgen Melzer and Nicolas Mahut respectively. John Isner will face Malek Jaziri in his opener while Jared Donaldson meets Lukas Rosol.
Like it was said earlier, Federer shouldn’t have any problem getting to the quarterfinals whatsoever. He has quite the straightforward draw to open up his US Open campaign. Even better for Federer is his history against potential quarterfinalist Tomas Berdych. He’s 14-6 against the Czech number one in his career and has not lost to him since they met in Dubai over two years ago. Anything less than a semifinal showing for Federer will be a bust.
Semifinalist: Roger Federer
First round matches to watch for: Denis Kudla - Jurgen Melzer, Janko Tipsarevic - Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Thanasi Kokkinakis - Richard Gasquet, Philipp Kohlschreiber - Alexander Zverev, Leonardo Mayer - Roger Federer
Semifinals
Novak Djokovic defeats Kei Nishikori
Andy Murray defeats Roger Federer
Finals
Andy Murray defeats Novak Djokovic