Canada’s Milos Raonic has had by far and away the best season of his career so far, establishing himself as one of the strongest players on the ATP World Tour. The 25-year-old Canadian has made great strides towards becoming a great champion on the tour and will look to overcome past US Open struggles to clear that final hurdle and claim a maiden Grand Slam title at the end of the upcoming fortnight in New York.
Notable Results to Date
The big-hitting Canadian has been one of the most consistent players on the ATP World Tour this season, reaching the quarterfinals or better at all but two of his events so far this season, with both of those early losses coming on clay. He’s reached the semifinals or better at four of his six hard court events, including a pair of finals.
Raonic has reached four finals in 2016, two of them on hard courts. His lone title of the season came in his first event, as he claimed the title in Brisbane over defending champion Roger Federer on hard courts. He also reached the final of the Masters 1000 event in Indian Wells, falling to Novak Djokovic. He reached back-to-back finals on the grass courts of London, first at the Queen’s Club and followed it up with his first career major final at Wimbledon. On both occasions, he lost to Andy Murray.
At the season’s first hard court major, the Australian Open, Raonic had one of the most impressive runs of his career, reaching the semifinals on the heels of three straight-set wins, an upset of former champion Stan Wawrinka, and a strong performance against the red-hot Gael Monfils before taking a two-sets-to-one lead over Murray in the semifinals. If not for a leg injury that derailed his match, eventually leading to a Murray victory, it’s likely that Raonic could have reached his first major final six months earlier.
Hard Court Results Leading into New York
The world number six is coming into the US Open with some momentum after a strong performance in Cincinnati. It seemed like his campaign would be a short one at the final Masters 1000 event prior to the year’s final major, as the draw gods handed him John Isner in his opening match, a player Raonic had never beaten. But the Canadian finally found his way past his fellow big server in straight sets. He followed that up with wins over Yuichi Sugita and Dominic Thiem before falling to Murray for the third time in four tournaments in the semifinals.
The run in Cincinnati marked a turn-around for the Canadian, who struggled to carry his momentum over from his run at Wimbledon. In his hometown of Toronto, the Canadian fell fairly sheepishly in the quarterfinals to Gael Monfils. He also withdrew from the Olympics, citing Zika concerns and a need to practice and save his body for tour events.
Best US Open Result
Despite it being an event where he would logically do well, the US Open is the only major where Raonic has failed to reach the quarterfinals. Three times the Canadian has fallen in the round of sixteen, falling just short in 2012, 2013, and 2014. Interestingly, all three times he lost in the round of sixteen in New York, his conqueror went on to reach the semifinals all three times, and the finals twice.
His closest call came in 2013 when he led Richard Gasquet by two-sets-to-one and held a match point in the fourth-set tiebreak. He failed to convert and went on to lose in five sets. Gasquet went on to reach the semifinals. In 2012, he lost to eventual champion Murray in straight sets. In 2014, he was once again a set away, but eventually fell to Kei Nishikori, who went on to reach the final.
How Raonic’s Game Translates to the Surface
Theoretically, the surface in New York should suit Raonic’s game. The Canadian’s favourite surface is a fast hard court and that’s what he gets in New York. The quicker surface is better for his big serve and powerful forehand. The volley attack that he’s started using in 2016 and was key in his run at the US Open should also be quite effective on the fast courts of the US Open.
That being said, despite the fact that this is a surface where Raonic can use his big shots to overpower opponents, he has historically struggled here. The US Open surface is quick, but it does not quite have the slickness of the grass in England, where he was so successful this summer. The US Open surface is just slow enough that a good counterpuncher can wear him down. If he shows the consistency he had at the Australian Open or the claustrophobic attacking he used at Wimbledon, however, he should be able to take the next step in New York.
He opens his US Open campaign against the wild German Dustin Brown.