He didn’t have to attack today, Vincenzo Nibali (Astana) could have sat comfortably amongst the other leading riders, nursing his unassailable lead and following any serious moves that were made as he saw fit. Instead Nibali opted to ride like a true champion; he followed an attack by Chris Horner (Lampre-Merida) before dropping the American, passing Mikel Nieve (Team Sky), the last man from the break, and cruising to the top of Hautacam to claim his fourth stage win of the race. It’s impossible to know how Nibali would have fared against Chris Froome (Team Sky) and Alberto Contador (Tinkoff-Saxo), but judging by his performances relative to those left in the race, it would have taken something special to defeat the Italian. He has excelled throughout the race, winning on the hills of Britain, starring on the cobbles and conquering the Vosges, the Alps and now the Pyrenees, Nibali will be a most deserving champion when the race reaches Paris.
There was drama behind Nibali as well as Tejay van Garderen (BMC Pro Racing) set a strong pace, stringing out the favourites behind him. With 5.5 km remaining Laurens ten Dam (Belkin Pro Cycling) had a slight dig, but a counter attack by Thibaut Pinot (FDJ) split the group, with only van Garderen and Jean-Christophe Peraud (AG2R La Mondiale) able to follow him.
With around 2km of the climb remaining, that Pinot led trio caught Rafal Majka (Tinkoff-Saxo) who was riding hard to hold off Nibali for the KoM Jersey. Majka attacked as they approached the line and Pinot immediately followed his wheel, sprinting past the Polish rider to claim 2nd and a five second advantage over Peraud and van Garderen. Majka finished 3rd which earned him more than enough KoM points to ensure he would wear polka dots in Paris on Sunday.
Just as he had done on the final climb the previous day when he was dropped but recovered, Valverde struggled to follow the attacks of his younger rivals. He again fought hard to limit his losses, but there would be no recovery this time and he slips off the podium for now. There are just 15 seconds separating Pinot in 2nd overall and Valverde in 4th, with Peraud in-between; it sets up a decisive time trial on Saturday, which Peraud acknowledged after the race: “Nothing is done, everything remains to be done in the TT. With the tiredness in the third week, nobody can rest assured of the 2nd or 3rd place."
A twenty man break had formed very early in the day and the race settled into a fairly peaceful rhythm. Astana kept them under control, clearly thinking about the stage win for Nibali, limiting the break’s advantage to just 3:28 at the foot of the Col du Tourmalet.
Through Kevin Reza and Bryan Coquard, Europcar set the early pace on the Tourmalet, presumably trying to set up their leader Thomas Voeckler for one final stint at glory. However the attack came from Sylvain Chavanel (IAM Cycling) instead. Mikel Nieve (Team Sky) and Blel Kadri (AG2R) bridged across to Chavanel, then dropped him in short order. That pair would lead the race over the top of the Tourmalet and onto the slopes of Hautacam, where Nieve proved too strong for Kadri, but not for Nibali.
Behind the leaders Alejandro Valverde attacked on descent, picking up two of his Movistar team mates who had been in the break, Ion Izagirre and Jesus Herrada, and trying to break costless from the Yellow Jersey group. However BMC, and later FDJ gave chase and closed down Valverde’s attack with 27km to go. From there it was all about Astana and Vincenzo Nibali.