Here we are again, the last 16 of the Champions League, and just like last year, Manchester City find themselves playing host to the Europeam heavyweights FC Barcelona. However, despite the disapointment of last season, and the small fact that the Catalonian side boast the world's finest player in their ranks, there's a genuine belief in the Manchester City camp that this time, the outcome of the tie may be a little different.
Make no mistake, City are well aware of the threat posed by Barcelona, having been given something of a footballing lesson across two legs last season. Furthermore, Pellegrini will also be aware that this is a different Barcelona side to the one he has previously faced. Despite a few early blips, Luis Enrique has given the team a a new lease of life, adopting a more direct approach. Their attacking play now based upon the rapid transitions between Neymar and Messi in particular. However, in spite of all this, Manchester City are confident of a much closer contest this time, with their team improved in a number of key areas.
First of all, although City's defence has looked quite shaky on occasions this season, there's certainly a valid argument that they're much better equipped to deal with Barcelona than they were last year. The cumbersome Joleon Lescott has departed, whilst Martin Demichelis has had a spectacular 12 months since *that* tackle on Lionel Messi, and has without doubt been the clubs best defender in that period. Gael Clichy too, is experiencing a much better run of form, and has ousted Aleksandar Kolarov as Pellegrini's first choice left back. Another important, and potentially overlooked difference is expected inclusion of Fernando, who despite failing to convince in certain games this season, was signed as a 'pure destroyer' exactly for tight European nights like these.
However, the one glaringly obvious difference to me is the presence of City's talisman, Sergio Aguero. Admittedly, Aguero did play some part in the return fixture at the Camp Nou, but, he clearly wasn’t fit, completing only one pass before suffering a recurrent hamstring injury. This time though, not only is Kun fully fit, but he’s bang in form, with 3 goals in his last 2 games. And despite Barcelona’s tendency to dominate possession, I’ve always felt that a fully fit Aguero can terrorise the Pique-Mascherano pairing. That's not to say that both aren't fine defenders, but I can't help but think that Aguero can cause them both a whole host of problems, especially if he can isolate one of them high-up the pitch. Manuel Pellegrini will certainly be hoping that his team's most decisive player can have a similar impact tonight as he did against Bayern Munich in the group stage.
City’s team?
It’s obviously very difficult to predict the team ahead of match which may be decided on the smallest of margins. However, Pellegrini’s team selection - Newcastle, and his choice of substitutions certainly pointed towards what his City team is likely to be on Tuesday night. For instance, Martin Demichelis’ omission from the line-up at the weekend certainly suggests that he’ll start, preferred to Mangala for his measured approach. Gael Clichy too, is expected to return, with his electric pace likely to be essential for dealing with the threat of Neymar.
The difficult decision though concerns who should occupy the right back berth. Both Pablo Zabaleta and Bacary Sagna are extremely credible candidates, and have proven their worth on many previous occasions. However, history seems to suggest that it’ll be the Frenchman who gets the nod, as Sagna’s greater defensive qualities saw him start both games against Bayern Munich earlier this season.
Ahead of the defence, the only other real selection headache is who should partner Silva and Nasri in the third attacking midfield role, with it seeming to be a straight choice between the frightening pace of Jesus Navas, and the irrepressible James Milner. Ordinarily, had Milner not uncharacteristically missed City’s last game with an injury, Manuel Pellegrini would’ve opted for his big game player. However, with that injury in mind, Pellegrini will probably opt for Navas, who’ll be tasked with stretching the play, creating pockets of space for the devastating Aguero to exploit.
Possible starting XI: