For the 2013/14 season Jürgen Klopp’s Borussia Dortmund began the season with a squad of 32 listed players. BVB’s biggest disappointments came when they played following a Champions League game and having recognised what was glaringly obvious, although clearly tweaks can only be made during the transfer window, Klopp has gone all out on bolstering up the squad.

At the time of writing, the transfer window will close on August 31st, the senior team lists 43 players. Bayern Munich list 37 in their senior squad, Bayer Leverkusen; 27, FC Schalke; 31. So, it would certainly seem that Borussia Dortmund are intent on not having a season like the previous one.

It had all started so promisingly for the Black and Yellows. They beat Bayern Munich 4-2 in the DFL-Supercup (Germany’s Community Shield) and began the season all guns blazing recording 5 straight wins, the first time they’d ever achieved such a strong start. But injuries hit hard, especially in defence, Serbian defender Neven Subotić and Poland's Łukasz Piszczek along with German midfielder Ilkay Gündogan were long-term absentees and at times their defence was a hodgepodge riffraff of youth and resurrected Paul Scholes-like retirees who’d gone back on their word.

Of course, Mario Götze had done the unthinkable and joined Bayern Munich that summer. And even though he had a multitude of plastic glasses flung his way full of a multitude of various liquids on his return to the Westfalenstadion, and scored in a 0-3 win for FC Hollywood, and even though he’d been playing for Borussia Dortmund since he was 8 years old, the fact remains he was born in Bavaria to Bavarian parents who had moved to Dortmund for work. It was heart-breaking for BVB fans, but he was returning to where he was from to play for a team most of his family supported.

This summer, Polish striker Robert Lewandowski has followed Götze’s footsteps. It wasn’t exactly a surprise. Arsenal manager, Arsene Wenger a few months ago said that they had made enquiries with Dortmund about a possible transfer in 2012 but came to know that Lewandowski had already made up his mind about joining Bayern when his Dortmund contract expired.

But this is the way it works at Dortmund, they have a good season and the wolves of European football fill their nostrils with the scent of blood and they lose their best player(s) to the highest bidder. However, we can all acknowledge that Klopp does great business in the transfer market. One player leaves, 2 come in. Last season it was Götze, who was replaced with Armenian midfielder Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Gabon winger/forward Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. Aubameyang scored 13 goals last season, Mkhitaryan contributed 9. Götze in his last season had scored 10 goals. So, if we look at this through the prism of Michael Lewis’s Moneyball then that’s some great business. A ‘profit’ of 12 goals.

Klopp has followed form this summer. Lewandowski has gone to pastures greener and has been replaced by two players. Former Torino hotshot, with 22 goals last season, Ciro Immobile and former Hertha Berlin striker Adrián Ramos, 16 goals last season.

Let’s first have a look at Ramos. He joined Hertha for the 2009/10 season, scoring 10 goals in 23 games. Hertha though went into full yo-yo mode and were relegated, then promoted, relegated again and once again promoted. During these seasons he scored, 15, 6, 11 and 16 goals respectively. So a total of 58 goals in 157 games. A strike rate of 1 goal per 2.7 games.

Immobile though will come to Germany as an unknown. In his last three seasons his strike rate is a goal per 1.87 matches. Serie A has plummeted in quality since its hay day in the 1990s, but the Capocannoniere, Serie A’s top scorer, has usually averaged around 25 goals to win the title. Immobile scored 22 times for Torino last season, helping them to finish 7th. Immobile will find himself up against weaker defences in this season’s Bundesliga though…yes, you read that properly. Remember that the Italian league is still full of teams that rely on Catenaccio to keep the match scoreless for as long as possible before trying to grab a goal on a counter attack.

German teams prefer to load their teams with hard working midfielders and fast attackers, Italian teams are far more interested in having a strong defensive profile than the blood and thunder approach that we’ve become used to seeing in the Bundesliga over the past few seasons.

To put these strike rates into perspective, Lewandowski scored one goal every 1.77 games during his Dortmund career. Klopp’s going with the Moneyball averages again. We can only hypothesize, but my gut feeling is that Immobile will play in the false 9 position of his predecessor. Poaching goals just like he did for Torino last season and linking with Marco Reus, Mkhitaryan, Gündogan, Aubameyang and Kuba Błaszczykowski. Torino used him as a lone striker last season, so he has plenty of experience taking on centre backs and running at them and holding up the ball for others to come into play. Italian football is nowhere near as fast as German football, but with a possible front 6 of the above most defences will have their work cut out for them.

As for Ramos, while he was excellent for Hertha Berlin last season and has bundles of Bundesliga experience he doesn’t have the pace of Immobile. Ramos gives Klopp what he didn’t have last season and didn’t need the season before; a Plan B. Instead of relying on the pace of a false 9, Ramos will be a traditional number 9 and will allow Dortmund to change tactics when searching for an elusive goal. He’ll drag defenders closer to their own goal and open up space for Dortmund’s midfield to pounce on.

Klopp is putting his faith in a Moneyball approach again this season, but unlike last season he’s giving himself a Plan B and reinforcing his squad having learnt some valuable lessons from last season. Klopp’s biggest problem however won’t be his players, it’ll be Bayern Munich and, in particular, two of his former most trusted players.

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About the author
Spud Murphy
A Paddy that lives in Poland. Former music hack returning to my first love football. Probably a bit of a football hipster, although if you admit it then you cannot be one....I think.