The approach of Autumn means only one thing in the tennis world: the US Open is almost upon us. On Monday 31st, defending champions Marin Cilic and Serena Williams will step on court in New York to begin their title defences. Here's a look at their chances of repeating as champions, and at some of their main rivals for the final major title of 2015.
Serena attempting to complete Grand Slam
It would be difficult to begin a preview of this year's US Open in any other way than to talk about Serena, and the rare opportunity she has at Flushing Meadows. Having won the first three majors this year, the American has the chance to complete a Grand Slam of all four major titles in one calendar year - an achievement rare enough that the last player to complete it (Steffi Graf in 1988) has been retired 16 years. Only three women have ever managed the feat.
So, how does Serena look, coming in attempting to join those three? Such has been her dominance of the WTA in recent times that she actually already holds all four major titles, and has won the US Open in each of the last three years. In fact, she's reached the final every year since missing the tournament in 2010.
With over double the ranking points of world number two Simona Halep, Serena has been almost unstoppable this year, and it's tricky to see who is going to stop her over the next fortnight. In recent times, her toughest opponent has often seemed to be herself, in the form of the pressure she puts on herself to keep winning, and the nerves that brings.
In 2015 so far though, Serena has shown time and again that she is more than capable of overcoming her doubts and nervous tension to win matches, even if playing well below her best. Her opponents will be well aware that until they've won the final point, Serena is still very much capable of winning. It's one of the many reasons she's been so unstoppable in 2015.
Other WTA contenders
It's been so long since someone other than Serena won a major, that it feels a little odd imagining anyone else lifting the trophy. And, indeed, there are question marks over all of the other top female players. Maria Sharapova hasn't played since Wimbledon as she recovered from injury, Petra Kvitova recently revealed a mono diagnosis (if you want to know how bad that can be, think of when the last time you saw Robin Soderling on court was), and Simona Halep has never reached the last eight at Flushing Meadows. In fact, despite being the world number two, Halep has only reached two major semifinals, raising doubts about her ability to play her best on the biggest stages.
It's often been true with Serena in the past that she is more likely to lose early in a major tournament than towards the end of one - she hasn't lost in the last two rounds of a Grand Slam tournament since the final in New York in 2011 - so it is perhaps more likely that if she does lose, it will not be to one of the players mentioned above. Of course, the question that then follows is, who will it be? Her passage to the third or fourth round looks to be fairly smooth, and by the time she could face Belinda Bencic or Karolina Pliskova in the quarterfinals, it could be too late on to stop her.
Less clear favourite from the ATP
You'd be hard pressed to bet against Novak Djokovic reaching the final here - he's been one of the last two in four of the last five years, and has been to the last stage of every tournament he's entered since January. He's put together a stellar year, highlighted by titles at the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and will be feeling confident of his chances at what, surprisingly, would only be his second US Open title. During the summer masters events, he occasionally seemed to be struggling with an elbow injury, but it's important to note that he still managed to be the runner up at both events. He didn't seem overly concerned with the injury when talking to the press at the time, and a week off should help it recover, but it perhaps still adds something of a question mark to the world number one's fitness when taking on his fellow elite players.
Roger Federer is also an ever-present name when it comes to discussing potential major champions, but it would be brave to bet on the Swiss winning his 18th major in two weeks
time. Despite being a five-time champion in New York, he's not reached the final since his loss to Juan Martin del Potro in 2009, and has now gone three years without winning any of the biggest titles. His tournament win in Cincinnati has raised many of his fans' hopes, but it's important to bear in mind that the fast courts in Cincinnati suit Federer much better than the slower surface at Flushing Meadows. Indeed, he was in a similar position last year, when he went on to lose to Marin Cilic in the semifinals. Expect him to look impressive in the early rounds, maybe take out a fellow contender for the title, but ultimately to fall short.
British number one Andy Murray enters the US Open on the back of his strongest hard court summer for some time, and will take a huge psychological boost from his first win over Novak Djokovic for two years in Montreal. He has yet to defeat Federer since returning from back surgery though, and Djokovic over five sets is a far tougher proposition than Djokovic over three sets. 2015 has been his most consistent season to date, and he would love to top it off with a third major title, but there do remain doubts over whether he can overcome the players ranked above him in a five-set match in the late stages of a Grand Slam tournament. But then again, we were saying similar things in 2012, and we all know what happened then.
Other ATP contenders unconvincing
There are a number of other players with a shot at the title worth mentioning, although their chances seem significantly slimmer than those mentioned above. Marin Cilic, as the defending champion, surely has to be at least acknowledged, although he has failed to back up his triumph last year, and seems to be headed more for an early exit than another title. Rafael Nadal is, surprisingly, the only man to win multiple titles in New York since Federer won his fifth back in 2008, but his form in 2015 has been disappointing to say the least, and a deep run at a hard court major seems beyond him at present, particularly with an opening match against Borna Coric, with Fabio Fognini and Novak Djokovic also in his section of the draw.
Stan Wawrinka is always a dangerous one to write off, but it is true that he has done little since winning the French Open in June to make his rivals nervous, and his draw has not been kind - he could have to go through Murray and Federer to just reach the final. Japanese world number four Kei Nishikori was a finalist last year, and is almost unstoppable at his best, but remains horribly injury-prone, and is just returning from his latest lay-off, prompting the usual doubts over his fitness.
Plenty of Brits in the main draw
This year's tournament sees a much higher than usual six British players in the main singles draws. Andy Murray is of course the highest profile of them, and he is joined in the men's draw by Aljaz Bedene and James Ward, neither of whom needed to come through qualifying to earn their place. Bedene has a tricky opening match against Ernests Gulbis, and looks unlikely to progress to round two. If he did, he'd be met by either Donald Young or Gilles Simon, both of whom would start as favourite over the British number two. James Ward starts against 30th seed Thomaz Bellucci, who is more at home on clay courts, but could still have too much for Ward. A second round match would come against either Paul-Henri Mathieu or Yoshihito Nishioka, both of which are reasonably winnable for the Brit.
In short, Andy Murray is the only British man who will progress far, although it's possible Ward may win a match or two.
On the women's side, Heather Watson leads the British players, and starts with a winnable match against American Lauren Davis. She's avoided being near any of the biggest names in the draw, but will still be lucky to get past Ekaterina Makarova and Elina Svitolina in the next two rounds. Sharapova could then be awaiting in round four, which would almost certainly be the end of Watson's tournament. If she can find the form that led her to serve for the match against Serena Williams at Wimbledon though, the absence of the biggest names in her draw for a few rounds could see her put together an impressive run.
Laura Robson also features in the main draw as she continues her comeback from a wrist injury which saw her out for over a year. So long was her layoff, that it's probably expecting too much to expect her to win her opening match against Elina Vesnina, but it's good to see Robson back competing, even if her results will understandably take a bit of time to return to normal.
Johanna Konta is the third British woman involved, and she came through qualifying to secure her place. Konta is on a 13-match winning run, and starts with a very winnable match against Louisa Chirico, before a likely meeting with Garbine Muguruza in round two. The British number two will be feeling confident after her excellent run of form, and it would be no surprise to see her match her best Grand Slam result by reaching the second round.
Serena the story in New York
Whatever happens over the next fortnight, one thing is for sure - the biggest story is going to be Serena's attempt at the Grand Slam. The women's final has sold out before the men's final for the first time, and, win or lose, Serena has had quite the run in Grand Slam tournaments, winning the last four and eight of the last thirteen. Completing the 2015 set in New York would undoubtably be her career's crowning achievement.