The last Grand Slam of the season is about to start with defending champion Rafael Nadal being forced to withdraw because of injury, which caused him to miss the tournament for the second time in three years. Roger Federer, that showed an impressive form in the M1000 hard courts, and Novak Djokovic, the world #1, are the biggest favorites to take the title.
The Serb’s draw appears to be the least favorable of all the main aspirants to the trophy. Gilles Muller, quarter-finalist in 2008 could be his opponent in the second round, with García Lopez or local Sam Querrey as potentials rivals in the third round. Another local would be his rival in the fourth round if it all goes according to seeding; John Isner, which already beat Djokovic twice in hard courts and proved to be a tough rival for him most of the times they faced each other. The path to the final appears to get even harder in the quarter finals, with Andy Murray and Jo-Wilfred Tsonga as potential adversaries. The Frenchman beat him three weeks ago in Montreal for the first time since 2010 (after 11 straight wins for the Serb) where he won the title in impressive fashion. Murray is having a very disappointing season but beat Djokovic here in the 2012 final to clinch the first Grand Slam title of his career.
In the second quarter of the draw Stanislas Wawrinka appears as the main favorite to reach the semi finals, the Swiss won his first Grand Slam and Masters 1000 titles of his career this season at the Australian Open and Monte Carlo respectively, but had a slightly inconsistent season, failing to impress in many tournaments. He already had an epic semi final with Djokovic at Flushing Meadows last season where he lost in a thrilling five-setter after leading 2-1. His path to the semi finals appears to be easier than Djokovic’s, with his biggest threats being Kei Nishikori or Milos Raonic in the quarter finals. The Canadian reached his career high ranking this season (6th) and appeared for the first time in a Grand Slam semi final at Wimbedon, where he lost to eventual runner-up Roger Federer.
In the bottom half Federer is the biggest favorite to reach the final, the Swiss maestro proved that he can still compete for the biggest titles at Wimbledon, where he reached the final and only lost in a close five setter against Djokovic. He had an impressive run in the Us Open series reaching the final in Montreal and winning Cincinnati, the 80th title of his career. There are some tricky obstacles in the Swiss’ path if he is to reach the final at New York for the seventh time in his career, including Ivo Karlovic in the third round and Fabio Fognini in the fourth. His first real threat would come in the quarter finals, where he’d face Grigor Dimitrov. The Bulgarian, hailed as Federer’s heir, seems to be finally starting to fulfill his potential this season, establishing himself in the TOP 10 and reaching the semi finals of a Grand Slam for the first time at Wimbledon.
Thomas Berdych or David Ferrer appear as Federer’s most likely rivals in the semi final. The Czech already beat him at this tournament in 2012, the last Grand Slam meeting between the two, while David Ferrer has yet to beat him during his career and faced him only a week ago in the final at Cincinnati with Federer winning in three sets. Berdych has a tricky draw with former champion Lleyton Hewitt in the first round and the unpredictable Ernst Gulbis in the R16. Ferrer’s road is slightly easier with only Marin Cilic being the only player likely to trouble the Spaniard before the quarters.
Despite his very poor form in Montreal and Cincinnati, Djokovic is still the favorite to take the title. His level always rises in the Grand Slams where he has reached at least the quarter finals every time since Wimbledon 2009. The US Open is the Grand Slam in which he undoubtedly underachieved the most. Only one title for one of the greatest hard courters in the open era certainly looks unimpressive, especially considering that poor record in slam finals (1-4). With Nadal out (to whom he lost the final in 2010 and 2013) and Murray in a very poor form, Roger Federer looks like the player that can challenge him the most. The title here would make the Swiss the player with most US Open titles in the open era, honor he now shares with Pete Sampras and Jimmy Connors, all of them with five titles. He won all of them consecutively from 2004 to 2008, but he failed to reach the final since 2009, where he lost to Juan Martin del Potro, another notable absence in this year’s edition.
Predictions:
Semi finalists: Novak Djokovic, Stanislas Wawrinka, David Ferrer, Roger Federer
Finalists: Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer
Champion: Novak Djokovic