At the end of 2016, Rafael Nadal sat at number nine in the ATP rankings, his lowest position ending a season since 2004. It’s unchartered territory for Nadal, but it’s nothing the Spaniard didn’t expect. The last few years on tour have been less than ideal for the former world number one. It’s clear that he’s not the player he used to be. Alongside physical struggles, (which are all too familiar for Nadal) the most worrying thing is that his once untouchable mental strength has seen a decline.

The 30 year old hasn’t reached a Grand Slam semifinal since his last slam win in Paris in 2014, due to a combination of confidence and physical issues. Having been struck down so many times with injury, the most recent being a wrist injury last year forcing him to call it quits on the season in October, doubts keep creeping into his game.

Nadal's 2016

2016 handed Nadal some shock losses, most notably falling to compatriot Fernando Verdasco in the first round of the Australian Open in a grueling five set match. The Spaniard found his form in the spring, however, as his famous clay court game earned him his 28th Masters title in Monte Carlo, followed by an opportunity to hoist another trophy in Barcelona. It was looking up for Nadal, but a major withdrawal due to injury prior to his third round match at Roland Garros set the mood for the second half of the year. Falling to the likes of Dimitrov, Troicki and Pouille, Nadal made little to no impact before finally ending his season due to injury in October.  

Perhaps Nadal’s priority in 2017, aside from remaining healthy, would be to improve his Grand Slam performance. The 14 time slam champion, who not long ago appeared to endanger Roger Federers record of 17, has been unsuccessful for a while. Nadal will be looking to go further into the draws at the slams to reinforce his authority on the big stages.

The Australian Open

Kicking off his season in Melbourne, Nadal will open up his campaign against Florian Mayer, whom he has a 2-1 record against, having last played on clay in 2012. Later on, he’ll potentially face Gael Monfils before an encounter with world number three Milos Raonic, a tough opponent considering the Canadian has already notched a win against Nadal this year in Brisbane. The Spaniard’s potential semifinal opponent is Novak Djokovic, and last of all, if he reaches deep into the second week, Andy Murray is likely to be waiting in the final. It’s not an easy draw for Nadal, but the good news is that he holds a winning head to head against all of his potential opponents except for Djokovic, which stands tightly at 23-26.

Coming into the Australian Open, Nadal is feeling good. In his pre-tournament press conference, the Spaniard explained, ‘I think I am ready. I think I practiced very well for one month and a half in Mallorca.’ Like always, Nadal isn't keen on predicting how well he’ll do in a tournament. Instead, he takes every day as it comes, explaining that, 'I feel myself ready for the competition, yes. Then if that happens during the next couple of days, I am able to compete well from the beginning, you never know what can happen.'

Nadal talking to the press ahead of the Australian Open | Photo: Ben Solomon/Tennis Australia
Nadal talking to the press ahead of the Australian Open | Photo: Ben Solomon/Tennis Australia

Nadal's 2017 calendar

Looking further ahead, Nadal is busy on the hard courts, playing from Rotterdam to Miami in March before embarking on his traditionally most successful part of the year, the clay season. The ‘king of clay’ has ample points to defend on the dirt, but he’ll look to pick some up at the French Open, as he withdrew early in 2016. We all know just how successful Rafa is in Paris, he picked up nine titles in ten years, an unbeaten record. For the last two years he hasn’t advanced past the quarterfinals, but in 2017, having relinquished the seemingly everlasting expectation for him to win each year, the pressure will be off, giving him some freedom to hopefully play his best tennis.

After the clay season, Nadal will be playing in a gold mine of points. Having missed Wimbledon and not getting past the quarterfinal in anything else, he’s got a perfect opportunity to boost his ranking up and potentially pick up some titles. However, the main focus for the Spaniard will be (or should be) Grand Slam performance- that’s the key area he’s been lacking in recent years, and coming into the Australian Open injury free and with a new weapon on his side, his chances are promising.

Carlos Moya joins the Nadal camp

In December it was announced that Carlos Moya, former coach of Milos Raonic, will be joining Toni Nadal on Rafa’s coaching team. Ever since Nadal starting struggling mentally, there’s been relentless suggestions from journalists and fans alike that a new face in his player’s box will do the Spaniard the world of good. Nadal admitted that, ‘I am a person who doesn’t like the big changes, who needs to be comfortable.’, which is perhaps why this change took so long to happen, and why when it did, the addition is someone who is close to Nadal. Moya is a long-time friend and was one of the main influences for Nadal right from the start of his career, but also, he’s an excellent coach and is likely to give Nadal the extra mental and technical support he needs to succeed in 2017.

Nadal in Melbourne with new coach Carlos Moya | Photo: REUTERS
Nadal in Melbourne with new coach Carlos Moya | Photo: REUTERS

So, what can we expect from Nadal? The future is certainly looking pretty bright. For now, Nadal is injury free, he’s started off the year well, and he’s finally got that long-awaited addition on his team. It all comes down to how he kicks off the year. Confidence has proved to be either a great help or a major hindrance for Nadal. A good, strong start in Melbourne, combined with obviously staying healthy, will set Nadal off in the right direction. Nonetheless, in the words of the Spaniard, ‘let’s see.’

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