The 2014 First-Year Player Draft will take place from June 5th through the 7th. This draft appears to be much more unpredictable than most years, especially at the top. LHP Carlos Rodon was considered the unquestioned top player in this draft not long ago. After a shaky start to the season, and questions about over-work, rumors of Rodon falling in the draft are popping up all over the place.
It once seemed that the Chicago Cubs would be put in a difficult situation selecting 4th. Rodon, and High School pitchers Brady Aiken, and Tyler Kolek seemed to be the obvious top 3 in this draft not too long ago. Now rumors are surfacing of Rodon falling in favor of High School catcher Alex Jackson or shortstop Nick Gordon, making Rodon a legitimate possibility for the Cubs with the 4th overall pick.
In fact, in Baseball America’s latest Mock Draft, MLB draft guru John Manuel has Rodon falling to the Cubs. Manuel has the Houston Astros selecting Aiken with the first pick. It appears that the Astros will decide between Aiken and Rodon, with Gordon being a late rumor that is being considered. If the Astros take Aiken, Rodon to the Cubs is very realistic.
Manuel then has the Miami Marlins selecting Jackson, which would give them the best bat in this class. Then the Chicago White Sox selecting Kolek with the third pick. Rodon is represented by Scott Boras, and the White Sox historically do not do business with him. They seem very interested in Kolek who is a big high school RHP with a 100+ MPH fastball. If Rodon falls to the White Sox, it seems unlikely they take him due to their infatuation with Kolek.
Manuel then projects that the Cubs will take Rodon. This would be a dream scenario for the Cubs, as he would be a perfect addition as the top pitching prospect in their system. The Cubs have one of the best minor league systems in all of baseball, but are extremely heavy on offensive talent compared to their pitchers. Rodon would go a long ways towards balancing that out, and would be a prospect who could move rapidly through the system, and make a MLB impact sooner rather than later.
Manuel’s short write-up for the Cubs selecting Rodon with their first round pick in his Mock Draft: “This would be the ideal situation for the Cubs who covet a fast-moving pitcher with upside. Aiken and Rodon are their top targets, and if both are gone, they remain in play for a deal with the likes of Kennesaw State catcher Max Pentecost.”
If Rodon is not there for the Cubs, Pentecost is a name that has been popping up recently. Pentecost hit .424/.479/.631 this season, and is a good defensive catcher who expects to stick at the position in the big leagues. The Cubs have a huge need in their system at catcher, and Pentecost would likely take an under-slot deal setting up the Cubs to take better prospects later in the draft. Gordon and Jackson would also be in play for the Cubs, but Rodon is their main target, and will be the pick if he is available.
Standing 6-foot-3 and weighing 234 pounds, Rodon has a thick frame that makes him likely to remain a starter. Stamina is simply not a concern, as Rodon has worked very deep into games throughout his college career at N.C. State, and remained solid late in the game. The fact that N.C. State allowed him to throw 130+ pitches multiple starts is concerning when it comes to arm health, but it does prove that he can handle a heavy workload.
Rodon has a fastball that sits in the mid-90s, and has been clocked as high as 98. His fastball also shows nice movement. It is already an advanced level pitch, and also has incredible upside. His best pitch is his slider which has incredible movement. His slider is almost impossible to hit as it breaks away from left-handed hitters. Rodon also throws a change-up, but it is simply to keep hitters honest. His change-up does not have much movement, but with two other elite-level pitches, it does not matter as much.
Rodon slid down draft boards after an unimpressive start to his 2014 season. He was inconsistent this season, but still put up solid numbers (2.01 ERA, 117 strikeouts, and 31 walks in 98.2 innings pitched). Rodon did not appear to have very good command, and seemed to rely on his pure “stuff” more than you would like to see. Rodon still has plenty of natural development left, as he needs to become more of a pitcher instead of a thrower.
There are plenty of questions surrounding Rodon, but he is an incredibly talented LHP with seemingly unlimited upside. He would fill a huge need for the Cubs in their system, and would be a no-brainer pick if he is available. While it may not be likely, we will trust the experts when they say that Rodon to the Cubs is certainly possible. It will be very interesting to see how things play out at the top of the draft on Thursday.