The National League lost the MLB All-Star game, ceding home advantage in the World Series to the American League. Where many National League teams, like the Colorado Rockies, Milwaukee Brewers, and the Philadelphia Phillies have already determined that they will be sellers at the trade deadline, there are seven teams that have a legitimate chance of making a deep run into October, and lack of home-field advantage could be a hinderance in winning a World Series title. But first comes getting to the World Series, and there is work to be done at the trade deadline for all of these teams.
St. Louis Cardinals
The St. Louis Cardinals were the best team in baseball for most of the first half of the season. Despite injuries to key players such as Adam Wainwright, Matt Adams, and, recently, Matt Holliday, the Cardinals have led the Major Leagues in wins for most of the season after overtaking the New York Mets at the end of April. However, there are some holes that they need to plug, especially because their biggest challenger, the Pittsburgh Pirates, are within their own division.
The Cardinals could use a power bat. Only Jhonny Peralta has more than nine home runs (14). One of the biggest power bats potentially on the market is Adam Lind of the Brewers. Lind would also fit perfectly with the Cardinals’ need for an upgrade at first base, where Mark Reynolds is hitting just .224. Meanwhile, Lind is slashing .289/.374/.507. However, Lind may be tough to acquire for the Cardinals as inner-division rivals rarely trade at the deadline even if the Brewers are going to be sellers.
Another option could be Mike Napoli of the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox could potentially be sellers at the deadline, depending on how the next few weeks before the deadline goes for them. Napoli has been dreadful this year, hitting under .200 for most of the season. However, the Cardinals could take a risk and hope that a change of scenery does him good.
On the mound, the Cardinals have one of the best of the staffs in baseball, led by two-time World Series champion John Lackey. Four regular starters have ERA's under 3.00, which will be perfect come October, when a rotation of four pitchers should get the job done. The bullpen is pretty good, but the Cardinals may be interested in investing in an middle-relief arm. However, a power bat and upgrade at first base is much more important as the Cardinals look to get to the World Series for the third time in five years.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pittsburgh Pirates may be the best team in the Majors for years to come. They have one of the best farm systems in the game, ranked #4 by MLB.com, and they have a roster with very few holes. They are as hot as any team in baseball, winners of eight of their last ten heading into the break, and they won three of four from the Cardinals just before the All-Star Break.
However, the Pirates still have the disadvantage of being in the same division as both the Cardinals and the Chicago Cubs, both potentially playoff squads.
If the Pirates want to overcame the 3.5 game gap between themselves and the Cardinals, a power bat may be needed. Pedro Alvarez, Andrew McCutchen, and Starling Marte all have 12 or more dingers, but other than that, the Pirates have very few power threats. They have many of the same options that the Cardinals have and were reportedly scouting Napoli.
Besides that, the Pirates are in great position to make a deep run in October. They have a great trio on the mound in Gerrit Cole, A.J Burnett, and Francisco Liriano. They have a great trio closing out the last few innings in the bullpen and plenty of depth in case of injuries. A few minor moves may happen at the deadline but, with the way Pittsburgh is playing, they should not need to do much.
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3. Washington Nationals
During Spring Training, it was a laughable idea that the Nationals may need to invest in pitching at the trade deadline. Yet, here we are, two weeks before the deadline, and that is exactly what the Nationals may need.
Coming into the season, the Nationals appeared to have the most dominant rotation in baseball with a rotation of Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann, Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, and Doug Fister. Only Fister had not been an All-Star before. However, Strasburg has been terrible, battling injuries and starting just 13 games with an ERA of 5.16. Scherzer has been as spectacular as advertised, winning 10 games and pitching to the tune of a 2.11 ERA. He already has a no-hitter under his belt this year. Zimmermann has been decent, going 8-5 with a 3.27 ERA and hurling 115.2 innings, second on the team to Scherzer.
Besides these arms, though, the Nationals are in a little bit of trouble. Gonzalez has been merely average (3.99 ERA), not the top-of-the-rotation pitcher that he was advertised as. Fister (4.08) has also been decent but not good enough.
The Nationals are in a division in which they really have only one potential challenger in the New York Mets, so their pitching issues may not be bad enough to hurt their chances at a division title. Thoughts of a deep October run will have to wait until Washington adds a few arms. Look for them to get a starter and potentially a bullpen arm at the deadline.
The offense has been better than expected, but they may also look to add someone will a little speed. If the Tigers tank, could veteran speedster Rajai Davis become available? The Nationals have more work to do than other teams, but the pieces are certainly available for a World Series run.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have been good for a few years now, but have yet to make the Fall Classic. Could this be the year? When Clayton Kershaw is not the ace, that means they have one of the most dynamic pitchers in baseball; the Dodgers do in the form of Zack Greinke, the potential Cy Young candidate.
Kershaw has still been great, though maybe not like the 2014 Kershaw. He has a nifty 2.85 ERA and would be the ace on many teams but not the Dodgers. Brett Anderson and Mike Bolsinger, 3.17 and 3.04 ERA's, respectively, have done an excellent job as well. Their rotation is in great shape.
The Dodgers, though, may look to add a middle-reliever. The Athletics’ Tyler Clippard or the Brewers’ Will Smith may be the answer.
On the offensive side of things, they need speed. Jimmy Rollins leads the team with a measly seven stolen bases. Problems with that include that Rollins has been caught seven times and does not get on base enough (.265 OBP). Rollins may be gone before the deadline due to his lack of production. Shortstop targets include Jean Segura of the Brewers or Alexei Ramirez of the Chicago White Sox.
5. Chicago Cubs
At long last, the Cubs will not be sellers at the trade deadline. The postseason is in sight if they can add a few pieces in the next two weeks.
Their biggest weakness lies at second base, where they have given rookie Addison Russell a chance, but he has hit just .228 with a .296 on base percentage. Will the Cubs deal Russell? Unlikely, but they may send him down and acquire a player like Ben Zobrist of the Athletics to help them get to the postseason this year.
The rotation has been fine, led by Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel. Jon Lester has not been the ace as advertised, but he is coming on. He has not won since May 16, but it is hardly his fault. He has pitched at least seven innings six times in the past two months and given up two earned runs or fewer six times as well.
The bullpen has been great, so look for the Cubs to add pieces to help their offense. The Cubs can contend this year, but they need someone like Zobrist or another high-average hitter to help their their offense that ranks 13th in the National League in batting average.
6. New York Mets
The Mets are another team that are finally back in contention. They have not played in October since they were one game away from making the World Series back in 2006, during the glory days of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, Tom Glavine, and Pedro Martinez.
It is no secret what the Mets will be in the market for, and that is offense. They rank dead last in the National League in many offensive categories. Michael Cuddyer could be a valuable piece to shop. The 36-year old has batted just .243 this year, but his track record could entice a team to trade for him. They may look for a speedster such as Rajai Davis of the Tigers.
The rotation has been pretty good. Jacob DeGrom has been filthy, pitching to a 2.14 ERA this season. The rest of the rotation, Matt Harvey, Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese, and Noah Syndergaard have been good enough. The highest ERA among them belongs to the 42-year old Bartolo Colon, who has a 4.46 mark. They may look to add a middle reliever to supplement the back end of their bullpen, but offense is certainly their top priority.
7. San Francisco Giants
The Giants are in contention, just one game out of the second wild card spot a year after winning their third World Series title in five years. Considering the loss of third baseman Pablo Sandoval and their inability to sign any big-name free agents in the offseason, the Giants have exceeded expectations and should be buyers at the deadline, barring a total collapse over the next few weeks.
The offense is fine in terms of average, but it needs some power. The Giants rank 11th with just 72 home runs. They could get away with that, but they also rank 12th in stolen bases. The player that could fit the Giants perfectly is Cincinnati Reds’ outfielder Jay Bruce, whom the Reds are reportedly shopping. Bruce has hit .251 and walloped 13 home runs this year. He would certainly be an upgrade over current right fielder Justin Maxwell, who has hit just .215 with six dingers.
The pitching staff has been perfectly mediocre. Madison Bumgarner leads the rotation with a decent 3.33 ERA, but that is higher than the Giants would like it. Chris Heston (3.39) has also been decent as has the rest of the rotation, but the Giants may be in the market for a dynamic ace as Bumgarner is failing to fit the bill as their ace in 2015. Johnny Cueto or Cole Hamels are the big names out there, and either would make sense as he is already in the National League.
The bullpen, much like the rotation, has been average as well. An upgrade at closer may be the Giants' biggest need with Santiago Casilla pitching well -- but not well enough. He has saved 23 games, but he also has 3.24 ERA and allows 1.1 home runs per nine innings, a little too high for a closer. The Giants have plenty of work to do if they want to leapfrog the Mets and the Cubs and jump into that second wild card spot, but it certainly can be done.
Summary
The National League may not have as many contending teams as the American League, but it could still have plenty of tight races as the season winds down. The Dodgers and the Giants will battle it out in the National League West, while the Nationals and Mets duel in the East. In the Central, the Cardinals and Pirates will almost be possibly the most intense race of them all with the Cubs lurking not far behind.
In the Wild Card race, the Mets, Giants, and Cubs are all within a game of each other for the second spot with the Pirates holding the first spot by several games. If each team can add a few pieces at the deadline, the second half of this season will be well worth watching.