The United States Women's Gymnastic Team is going to win the gold medal in Rio.
Yes, guarantees are a taboo in sports, as it sets expectations extraordinarily hard, and there is always a chance you could be wrong. Nothing is more foolish than someone guarenting a victory, only to come up short.
For the US Women, however, it appears the only thing that would prevent them from winning their third straight team gold medal would be if they suddenly decide they're sick of gymnastics and reroute the plane to Aruba for a two week vacation.
The United States has a historically great team that could beat any team. In order to be beaten, their closest rivals would have to come at them with everything they've got.
Unfortunately, while the United States comes to Rio with one of the greatest gymnastics teams of all time, their rivals come limping in with many questions surrounding them.
China's Injuries Continue
With Team China struggling with injuries over the past couple of years, they were hoping to be able to replenish their team with a new group of young gymnasts in order to build for the future. It looked like they hit the jackpot by bringing in 15 year old Liu Tingting, the 2015 junior national champion who placed 3rd in the all-around at the National Championships earlier this year. Tingting provided China, not only with youth, but with an all-arounder to help improve their team scores.
Unfortunately, Tingting went down with an injury, and now China has to call up their alternates.
China replaced Tingting with Tan Jiaxin, a two time member of the national team for the 2014 and 2015 World Championship. Jiaxin is a fine gymnast, but when you're competing for an Olympic medal, you don't want to have to bring in an alternate just 14 days before the Olympics. Not only that, but Jiaxin is not an all arounder. China only has three balance beam workers, meaning their lowest score in qualification on that apparatus will have to count for the team.
Compounding their problems, Luo Huan, another alternate, is also injured. China will head to Rio with only one alternate, and zero room for error. China was disappointed in London when they were left off the medal table, but many saw them as the United States' closest competition after winning the silver medal at the 2015 World Championships. National champion Shang Chunsong is a contender for an all-around medal, while Fan Yilin is a reigning co-World Champion on uneven bars. Both could provide China's best hope to winning medals in gymnastics in Rio.
Russia May Not Compete
One of the biggest stories surrounding the Olympics is the ban on Russia's track and field athletes, with the potential ban of all of Russia's athletes at the Rio Olympics. This comes in the wake of the revelation that Russia had a state sponsored doping program for many of their Olympic sports.
Of the sports where athletes received performance enhancing drugs, gymnastics does not appear to be ne of them; however, they may get caught in the crossfire as the International Olympic Committee considers a ban on all Russian athletes.
The International Gymnastics Federation (FIG) came out against a blanket ban, especially in the case of Russian gymnasts. Many golf fans and commentators agree, not just because it would be unfair to the Russian gymnasts, but to the gymnasts who may have their well earned success question in the wake of such a ban.
"If the Russian gymnasts are banned, we will forever put an asterisk next to a gymnasts' name, and that asterisk will forever note the absence of the Russian team," said Uncle Tim, a gymnastics blogger, on a recent edition of the Gymcastic Podcast. "and I hate that. I want the bar champion to be the bar champion. No stupid asterisk. I don't want gymnastics fans to say "well, Aliya Mustafina wasn't there, so that gymnast wasn't really the Olympic bar champion." I hate those historical asterisks, more than I hate man wipes on floor."
The IOC is expected to make a decision soon, especially with many teams already arriving in Rio.
Russia Losing Gymnasts
If Russia does compete in Rio, they will bring a team that has been hampered with injuries.
Viktoria Komova, the 2012 all-around Olympic silver medalist and two time World Champion on the uneven bars, announced earlier this year that she will be unable to compete at the Olympics. This week, Russia was hit with another blow, when two time Olympic competitor Ksenia Afanasyeva announced she would be retiring due to a kidney disease. Afanasyeva was listed as a member of the Olympic Team earlier this year, but was moved to alternate as she battled an injury. Maria Paseka, the reigning World Champion on vault, has battled injuries this year, and has only competed twice this year in Russia, and she didn't perform flawlessly in either event.
None of this is good news for Russia, who is already reeling after finishing off the podium at the World Championships last year. In other Olympic Games, Russia and the United States battle it out to see who walks away with the gold medal. This year, Russia will have to deliver solid performances just to remain on the podium; however, they still Aliya Mustafina, who will be a medal contender on the uneven bars and the all-around, and could do enough to get Russia on the podium.
Disasters For Romania
Romania, who at one time was the country dominating women's gymnastics, has won a team medal in every Olympics since 1976. That streak will end this year, as Romania failed to qualify a team for the Olympics. The team has had to deal with injuries, coaching changes, and controversy within the sports ministry. All of this added up to the team failing to qualify for the team finals in Glasgow, and a disastrous showing at the Rio Test Event that left one of the biggest gymnastics powerhouses out of the running for Rio.
To make matters worse, Larisa Iordache, who won the all-around silver medal at the 2014 World Championships, as well as the bronze medal in 2015, has been dealing with injuries. Iordache's injuries kept her out of the Rio Test Event, and wasn't fully healed when she competed at the Romanian National Championships.
Romania was given one spot for a gymnast in Rio, and after much deliberation, Romania decided to go with Catalina Ponor, the two time Olympic medalist, over Iordache, who still has question marks surrounding her health. While Iordache would have been an all-around contender, Ponor is not - she only competes on the balance beam and floor exercise. Iordache's absence assures that no Romanian will win an all-around medal, and it clears the field for Simone Biles.