Sometimes there is a disconnect between the brain and the heart. I am a die hard Celtics fan since the days of Larry Bird and I have now lived in Boston for the past 18 years. At the end of last season, I definitely believed the best thing the Celtics could do was completely rebuild for two reasons- in the long run you are much better off being terrible than mediocre in the NBA, and I have strong faith in Celtics general manager Danny Ainge. Once the Celtics pulled the trigger on the Garnett/Pierce trade to the Nets for no immediate help, the objective side of my brain told me the Celtics were closer to an NBA title than at any point since Ray Allen left for Miami. But as the season started getting closer the realization that I would be watching a dreadful stretch of Celtics basketball sunk in. This became even more obvious when I attended an Atoms for Peace concert at the Barclay Center, the Brooklyn Nets arena. Seeing the Pierce and Garnett jerseys there was a tough pill to swallow (to make matters worse I got to see Flea a die hard Lakers fan play next to one of my idols Thom Yorke) and it got even worse when I attended a Nine Inch Nails concert two weeks later at the TD Garden (the Celtics home arena) and could barely see any Celtics paraphernalia while there was so much Bruins gear everywhere. This will be a tough year for the Celtics, but we are on the right path towards another NBA title. Let's preview the season...
Considering Danny Ainge's wheeling and dealing style no player on the Celtics roster is guaranteed of being with the team long term, but one piece of the puzzle who is almost certain of being in Boston for awhile is new coach Brad Stevens who arrives from Butler. The Celtics signing Stevens was as shocking as the final scene in "Sixth Sense", very few so that coming. In the age of Twitter and the 24 hour news cycle, it's very surprising that no media outlet had even linked the Celtics to the former Butler coach (the Boston Globe had a long list of potential Doc Rivers replacement, some pretty far fetched, and Stevens wasn't even on it). The last time the Celtics picked a college coach to take over the team, it turned out to be as disastrous as Charlie Hunnam casting for the lead role in "Fifty Shades of Gray". Rick Pitino who arrived with a lot of hype set the team back numerous years and proved that success on the collegiate level doesn't necessarily translate to success at the NBA level. But Steven s seems to have what it takes to succeed in the NBA, especially with a rebuilding team like the Celtics. He took Butler to their first two Final Four appearances in the NCAA tournament, while also breaking the record for most wins for a college coach in his first 3 years. He is stat driven coach in the "Moneyball" mold who should fit in well with how the Celtics front office operates. By giving him an almost unprecedented 6 year contract, the franchise ensured the fans know they are committed to him long term although the first two years are expected to be very difficult. While his predecessor Doc Rivers had become one of the elite coaches in the NBA, he wasn't interested in being part of a rebuilding process (maybe he should have thought about that before signing a long term contract with a team that featured a very old roster) and his supposed ability to recruit big name costless agents was vastly overrated as Brandon Bass was probably the only significant player to sign a long term deal with the Celtics in recent years. Just like Larry Bird, the Celtics new coach Brad Stevens hails from the state of Indiana, he appears to have been the perfect hire for the current incarnation of the Celtics.
Now that the Big 3 (Pierce, Garnett, Allen) and coach Doc Rivers are gone, Rondo is the face of the franchise. The question is for how long? He is expected to be out until mid December while recovering from a knee injury. What will the Celtics do? If the Celtics are looking to trade him unfortunately the knee injury arrived at the worst possible time since Rondo has less than 2 years left on his contract. It's hard to get a big return when receiving team can't control a player long term (they could of course hypothetically sign him to an extension, but you would think considering his character issues a team would want to get some first hand experience managing him before making a big financial commitment). On other hand Celtics could just decide to rebuild around Rondo. As Bill Simmons suggested, the team could tell Rondo to take his time returning from injury to improve it's chances of landing a top pick in the draft, while promising him a long term deal beyond what he has left on his current contract. Considering the Celtics probably wouldn't get a big return in a trade because of the injury, this is what makes the most sense to me. The NBA is once again a point guard driven league, Rondo has just entered his prime now that he is 27- he is proven in the playoffs (he almost single handedly eliminated Miami with a decimated Celtics team 2 years ago) and from what you read in the media he is forming a strong bond with coach Stevens. It's definitely risky to hitch your wagon to a mercurial character but when you look at the alternative (getting 50 cents on the dollar in a trade) it's probably the best course of action.
At least until Rondo returns from his knee injury, Jeff Green will be the Celtics go to player. After missing the 2011/12 season due to a heart issue (which gave me nightmares of a Reggie Lewis situation) Jeff Green played in every game last season, while he was as inconsistent as a season of the "Walking Dead" he at least showed enough that we can consider the Perkins/Green trade a win for the Celtics long term (this probably has more to do with Perkins looking like a liability to the Thunder at this point). Green is a very versatile player, he can score both inside and outside and is an above average defender. He can also play both forward positions and in a pinch can also play as a shooting guard (although the Celtics are very deep at the position). The Celtics have Green signed to a very reasonable contract through 2015/16 season (the last year is a player option) when you look at what comparable players earn. It will be interesting to see how Green responds to being the go to guy on a team, he is a hard worker as he is often the first Celtics player to show up at TD Garden to practice before a game, and is now entering the prime of his career (just like Rondo he is now 27). I expect a big season from Green and recommend acquiring him in fantasy basketball.
Danny Ainge used a smart blue print to create a team that won the Celtics it's 17th NBA title, went to a game 7 of another NBA final and probably could have won another ring had Garnett not been injured in 2008. The blue print consisted of hiring right coach (Rivers), amassing trade assets (Gerald Green, Al Jefferson) and tanking in the right season when Durant/Oden were available. Ainge is repeating the same plan, he hired Stevens, traded Pierce/Garnett for trade asset (Humphries' expiring contract) and draft picks and is looking to tank the season before the best NBA draft in years. It will be very interesting to see what Ainge does with Rondo- if he decides to trade him, he could either look to get a long term asset (or multiple) by packaging him with either/or Brandon Bass (who has proven he is a legitimate rotation player for a title contender because of his defense, a decent offensive game as well as a reasonable contract) and Humphries expiring contract ($12 million) or package Rondo with Gerald Wallace's albatross of a contract ($30 million over next 3 years)to improve the team's cap situation long term and get a higher draft pick. The Celtics also could trade guard Courtney Lee who is signed to a reasonable contract (around $16 million over next 3 seasons) and while he isn't coming off a strong season he is an excellent defender who could help a contending team. In addition to veterans who could help a contending team, Ainge will look to develop the Celtics young players, which is one of the reasons the hiring of Stevens as coach was so shrewd. While SG Avery Bradley took a step back last season (especially in the playoffs where he looked very poor against the Knicks) he still made the NBA All Defensive second team and could develop into a younger version of Tony Allen. I'm expecting a strong season from PF Jared Sullinger who showed some flashes prior to needing back surgery last season. He was expected to be a top 5 NBA draft pick but slipped because of injury concerns, he has looked sharp in the pre season, look for him to get a lot of minutes this season. The Celtics also traded up in the last draft to select PF/C Kelly Olynik who is a modern big man who can run the floor and shoot from the outside. More than wins the Celtics goal this season is to develop these players. The Celtics also received a 1st round pick from the Clippers for coach Rivers and 3 from the Nets in the Garnett/Pierce trade, these are either lottery tickets in the draft or trade assets.
So what can we expect from the Celtics this season? As I mentioned earlier, in the NBA it's much better long term to be very poor than mediocre. While GM Ainge can't say it publicly I'm fairly certain he is planning to use this season to secure good odds to land a top pick in the draft and develop the Celtics young players. But as we saw with Stevens, he can also work in mysterious ways- he does have the assets (Humphries expiring contract and some young talents) to add another established piece to Rondo and Green, but my gut tells me this will be more of a rebuilding season. I expect Celtics to be in the NBA draft lottery and miss the playoffs, which in the long run may not be such a bad thing.
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About the author
David Amoyal
Grew up in Padova (Italy) and current resident of Boston (USA). Editor in chief and writer for Vavel USA. My writing idols are Bill Simmons, Jason Whitlock and Chuck Klosterman