Examining The Possible #1 Seeds:
Kentucky: 31-0, 18-0 SEC, RPI: 1, SOS: 27
Kentucky has locked up the #1 overall seed. At 31-0, Kentucky is not playing for seeding in the SEC tournament, they’re playing for history.
Virginia: 28-2, 16-2 ACC, RPI: 6, SOS: 22
Virginia seemed to have a #1 seed locked up this past weekend however they were the only potential #1 seed to lose this weekend so that made things a bit more interesting. Virginia does have some solid wins, especially on the road. They have beaten Maryland, North Carolina, and VCU on the road, all that rank in the top 20 in the RPI. If Virginia was to lose in the ACC semi-finals it could be dicey for the Cavaliers but if they were to advance to the championship they would most likely get a 1 seed and obviously if they won the ACC they would get the second one seed and be in the East Region.
Duke: 28-3, 15-3 ACC, RPI: 5, SOS: 13
The best thing going for the Blue Devils is their collection of wins. Duke possesses 4 road wins over the RPI top 17 including two over potential #1 seeds in Virginia and Wisconsin. Duke also has 8 wins over the RPI top 32 which also leads the country. If Duke was to get to the ACC semi-finals or even the finals and lose it would all depend on the other contenders. The problem for Duke is they are the only team in contention for a #1 seed to NOT win their conference in the regular season. History shows that if a team does not win their conference in the regular season or the conference tournament that it is very difficult for that team be rewarded with a #1 seed.
Villanova: 29-2, 16-2 Big East, RPI:3, SOS: 26
Villanova possess the most RPI top 50 wins in America with 11. The problem with those is that only 2 of those are against top 20 RPI teams and those teams rank 19 and 20 respectively. If Villanova was to win the Big East tournament then they will be a #1 seed, however if they were to slip up at all it is very hard to see them getting a #1 seed.
Wisconsin: 28-3, 16-2 Big Ten, RPI:4, SOS: 15
Wisconsin is most likely the, “next team up” to get a #1 seed in March. The biggest problem for Wisconsin is their lack of road wins. Their best road win is over Iowa who is ranked 39th in the RPI. Their top 50 wins are the most underwhelming of the potential #1 seeds. They also have the worst loss, which was to Rutgers, who ranks 168 in the RPI. Wisconsin passes the eye test to just about everyone out there but their resume is definitely lacking. The biggest issue with Wisconsin may not be getting a #1 seed but where they would be placed if they didn’t. If the Badgers are a #2 seed then they might be the biggest loser on Selection Sunday because they would most likely be placed in the Midwest region with Kentucky because of geographic purposes.
Arizona: 28-3, 16-2 Pac 12, RPI:7, SOS: 34
Arizona, despite being the least likely of these teams to be on the top line, is one of the biggest threats to win a National Championship. The good news for Arizona is that even if they weren’t to get a 1 seed, the Cats would still be in the West Region and have home court advantage over just about anyone in LA for the regionals. Arizona only has 6 top 50 RPI wins, which is the fewest, but all of them come over teams in the top 30.