The Marquette Golden Eagles host the Seton Hall Pirates on Wednesday night in what is expected to be a close contest. The game will be televised on Fox Sports 1 at 7:00 Eastern Time and played on Marquette's home hardwood at the BMO Harris Bradley Center.
Probable starters, Marquette:
G Traci Carter, 6-0, 175 lbs, fr. -- 5.3 Pts, 3.6 Reb, 4.9 Ast
G Haanif Cheatham, 6-5, 180 lbs, fr. -- 10.3 Pts, 2.8 Reb, 2.4 Ast
F Sandy Cohen, 6-6, 180 lbs, so. -- 9.5 Pts, 3.9 Reb, 2.9 Ast
F Henry Ellenson, 6-10, 245 lbs, fr. -- 16.8 Pts, 9.8 Reb, 2.6 Ast
C Luke Fischer, 6-11, 245 lbs, jr. -- 14.5 Pts, 8.3 Reb, 0.8 Ast
Probable bench, Marquette:
G Duane Wilson, 6-2, 185 lbs, so. -- 12.6 Pts, 3.2 Reb, 3.2 Ast
G Jajuan Johnson, 6-5, 185 lbs, jr. -- 8.3 Pts, 2.7 Reb, 1.3 Ast
G Wally Ellenson, 6-6, 210 lbs, jr. -- 1.6 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 0.7 Ast
Probable starters, Seton Hall:
G Isaiah Whitehead, 6-4, 210 lbs, so. -- 14.8 Pts, 3.0 Reb, 4.1 Ast
G Khadeen Carrington, 6-3, 180 lbs, so. -- 13.6 Pts, 2.4 Reb, 2.3 Ast
G/F Ismael Sanogo, 6-7, 190 lbs, so. -- 4.9 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 1.4 Ast
F Desi Rodriguez, 6-6, 215 lbs, so. -- 12.3 Pts, 4.6 Reb, 1.7 Ast
F Angel Delgado, 6-9, 230 lbs, so. -- 9.4 Pts, 10.1 Reb, 1.1 Ast
Probable bench, Seton Hall:
G Derrick Gordon, 6-3, 205 lbs, sr. -- 7.9 Pts, 2.5 Reb, 1.9 Ast
F Michael Nzei, 6-7, 190 lbs, so. -- 6.2 Pts, 4.0 Reb, 0.3 Ast
F Veer Singh, 6-7, 185 lbs, fr. -- 3.2 Pts, 1.4 Reb, 0.3 Ast
Seton Hall and Marquette seem to be similar teams but the Golden Eagles enter the game as a 3.5 point favorite. Both teams are 10-2 with modest records against KenPom.com's top-100 (Pirates: 3-1 with a win against Wichita State, Marquette: 3-2 with a win over, um, Presbyterian and other bad teams). Their defenses are similarly ranked and both have a balance of strengths and weaknesses on offense. Both rate between good and very good in effective field-goal percentage (eFG%), offensive rebounding percentage, and free-throw rate. The two share a weakness on offense in turnover percentage. However, similar statistics does not mean similar teams. If you look closer, then Marquette and Seton Hall seem to have distinct differences that can explain why the Golden Eagles are favored to win.
Effective Field-Goal Percentage is arguably the most important factor in winning a basketball game. Offensively and defensively, Marquette has a better percentage (53.2% over 50.3% offensively, 44.6% over 45.8% defensively). It essentially means the Golden Eagles score and prevent scoring at a better rate.
Every team has stars, the players that use the highest percentage of possessions. Marquette's stars produce at a more efficient rate than Seton Hall's. Isaiah Whitehead, Seton Hall's only player that uses more than 28% of possessions, has a below-average offensive rating (ORtg) of 96.4 and an awful eFG% of 40.4%. Marquette's Henry Ellenson has a good ORtg of 106.8 and a higher eFG% of 48.1%. He's better, but what separates the two teams most is...
Marquette's significant contributors (20-24% of possessions used) are better than Seton Hall's.
Luke Fischer: eFG% 63.1%, ORtg 124.3
Duane Wilson: eFG% 53.3%, ORtg 102.3
Haanif Cheatham: eFG% 62.3%, ORtg 102.8
versus...
Derrick Gordon: eFG% 45.3%, ORtg 92.8
Desi Rodriguez: eFG% 60.1%, ORtg 116.6
Khadeen Carrington: eFG% 50.4%, ORtg 106.9
Advantage: Golden Eagles. They don't have an inefficient player (see: Derrick Gordon) as a significant contributor. Marquette also has Luke Fischer, far and away the best player of the two groups.
In a game between two sound defenses, offense can decide the winner. Seton Hall has a good team, but Marquette has a great -- and efficient -- offense that can overwhelm its way to a victory.