For all college football fans that simply can’t wait for 4 PM on New Year’s Eve to see Clemson face off against Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff semifinal, the bowl game schedule provides a tasty noontime appetizer in a matchup between the ninth-ranked Seminoles of Florida State and the #18 Houston Cougars, in the Peach Bowl.

Florida State-Houston History

Surprisingly, despite the fact that the Seminoles are from a major conference in the ACC while the Cougars reside in the mid-major American Conference, it has been Houston that has dominated the series history these two squads. However, Thursday’s matchup will be the first between the programs since 1978, when Houston won 27-21. Overall, Houston owns a 12-2-2 edge over the Seminoles.

Houston's Surprisingly Stellar 2015 Season

Following back-to-back eight-win seasons for the Cougars, the 12-win season for Houston has been a pleasant surprise. Houston used it’s improbable comeback 35-34 Armed Forces Bowl victory as a springboard for their 2015 campaign, which started with 10 straight wins. They upset Louisville in their second game, topping the Cardinals 34-31. The Cougars went on to add impressive victories over Cincinnati and a ranked Memphis squad to their resume.

However, the Cougars overlooked the UConn Huskies, probably already looking ahead to their showdown with Navy the following week. This hurt them as the Huskies shocked the Cougars 20-17 to ruin their bid at an unbeaten season. However, Houston roared back with a dominant showing in their 52-31 thrashing of the Navy Midshipmen, which earned them a berth in the conference championship. They beat Temple 24-13 and finished the season 11-1 with a 3-0 record against ranked teams. That could bode well for the Cougars as they take on their fourth ranked opponent of the season in Florida State on Thursday.

Stunning Upset Ruins Florida State's Season

Under the current College Football Playoff system, a team with one loss can still make the Playoff - three of the four teams in the Playoff on New Year’s Eve have one loss - but two losses will leave you out of the conversation. Unfortunately, this was true for Florida State who was stunned by Georgia Tech on October 24, which not only ruined their bid at a third straight unbeaten season, it also eventually ruined their playoff hopes. The Seminoles put together an impressive season but that loss, plus their loss to future ACC champion Clemson, kept them out of the College Football Playoff conversation.

Had they not lost to Georgia Tech and been a one-loss team, the Seminoles may have very well been in the conversation, even without playing in their conference title game. However, a stunning 22-16 defeat at the hands of the Yellow Jackets, the loss coming on a returned blocked field goal at the buzzer, forces the Seminoles to settle for the Peach Bowl. Florida State is 1-1 against ranked squads this year with a loss against Clemson and a win against in-state rival, Florida. With the game being held in Georgia, the Seminoles should have plenty of fan support there - or at least, a lot more than the Cougars will have.

Houston's Balanced Attack To Be Tested By Florida State's Stingy Defense

Houston brings a balanced offense to the Peach Bowl that has averaged just over 40 points per game. However, they’ll run into one of the best defenses in the game when they face Florida State, who has given up barely 15 points a game. Houston averaged about 490 yards per game, splitting it fairly evenly between their ground and air game.

The Seminoles give up about 320 yards per game but while they bend, they rarely break. They never gave up more than 24 points in a game, and held opponents to under 20 points in seven games. Houston will rely on their star dual-threat quarterback in Greg Ward Jr. who has passed for 2,590 yards this year, while also running for well over a thousand yards. He represents Houston’s top passing and running threat. Kenneth Farrow has rushed for 968 yards on the year and will be an excellent second option for the Cougars as they try to break into the Seminoles’ stiff defense.

Golson's Absence Makes Life Difficult For The Noles

Normal starting quarterback Everett Golson will not be playing in the Peach Bowl due to ‘personal issues’, according to coach Jimbo Fisher. This leaves backup junior quarterback Sean Maguire to do the signal-calling under center for the Seminoles. Maguire has done well in four starts for Florida State this season, passing for just over a thousand yards plus nine touchdowns. However, Florida State will likely lean on running back Dalvin Cook, who ran for over 1,700 yards this season, to break through Houston’s defense, which is strong in both defending the run and pass games. 

It has allowed just 3.3 yards per rush this season, while intercepting opposing quarterbacks 17 times. Though Cook will likely attempt to carry the load, Maguire must be ready to pass as a run-heavy approach will likely fail against this strong defense. Kermit Whitfield, Travis Rudolph, and Jesus Wilson lead Florida State’s receiving core.

Prediction

This is a tough one. With no recent matchups to look at, it’s really hard to pick a winner between two fairly even teams. However, this writer things Houston has just enough offense and a stiff enough defense to squeak by the 7-point favorites in Florida State.


The Prediction: Houston 27-26

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