The Alabama Crimson Tide are currently seven point favorites to beat the Clemson Tigers in the College Football Playoff Final. Boasting the best front seven in college football, and arguably the best defense in the nation, Alabama has made its name by suffocating offenses. The Tide's Achilles Heel under Nick Saban has always been its secondary, but this year Alabama gives up just 186 yards per game through the air, good for 18th in the country. Perhaps the most important statistic the Alabama defense brings to the table is its sack total: 50. Alabama is able to get to the quarterback with just four rushers which makes it incredibly hard to move the ball against them.
What Alabama Must Do Defensively
Alabama will create a solid pass rush there's no doubt about that. The biggest concern Kirby Smart and the Alabama defense face is the scrambling and play making ability of Deshaun Watson. The Clemson quarterback has put up impressive numbers all year and has the ability to beat you with his feet or his arm. Expect Alabama to spend much of its time with a linebacker or safety spying Watson. That way when a play breaks down Watson will have to make a defender miss in the open field (which he is more than capable of doing).
Alabama will need to tackle well in space to keep Clemson's play makers in check. Clemson is very balanced offensively, but Alabama will look to make them one-dimensional in the same manner they did Michigan State. Once Alabama stops the run the Tide pass rush will pin its ears back and do what it does best. This writer expects that Alabama will look to exploit Clemson's left tackle Mitch Hyatt, who is a true freshman, by throwing him different looks, blitzes, and stunts. If Alabama starts to force turnovers, then this game will get ugly fast.
What Alabama Must Do Offensively
Jake Coker played his best game of the season against Michigan State in the Cotton Bowl, and he will need to be just as good against Clemson. The Tigers are 6th in the nation in yards allowed per game, and they completely shut down a high powered Oklahoma offense. Clemson held the Sooners to just 275 yards while forcing 5 turnovers in their 37-17 Orange Bowl victory. But Alabama brings a much more experienced offensive line to the table.
Oklahoma did a horrendous job of protecting Baker Mayfield, and Lincoln Riley completely abandoned the run game. If Alabama wants to be successful they cannot abandon the run game. The offensive line will look to help Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry make plays. Alabama must establish the run game or Coker will have to be perfect. The Clemson secondary ranks 9th in the nation in yards allowed and has forced 16 interceptions on the season. If Alabama can establish the run early, and Lane Kiffin doesn't out coach himself, then Coker will have a little more room for error. This writer doesn't expect another Cotton Bowl like performance from the kid. Expect Calvin Ridley to make a few big plays during the game. The stand out freshman surpassed the 1,000 yard mark in the Cotton Bowl and has been Coker's favorite target throughout the season.
Special Teams: Alabama's Advantage
The biggest mismatch in this game is one that the average football fan may not consider. Clemson's special teams units have been downright awful at times this year. Clemson allows 23 yards per kick return which is 107th in the country. Alabama has not returned a kickoff for a touchdown this season, but a touchdown return in this game could prove lethal to Clemson. The Clemson punt team has also struggled at times this season, and Cyrus Jones is averaging 12.6 yards per return and has fourtouchdowns. Field position will be critical in the national championship, and Alabama should have the advantage in that aspect more often than not.
Final Thoughts
- Keep Deshaun Watson in the pocket, and make tackles in space when he escapes.
- Establish the run game. Derrick Henry needs to rush for at least 100 yards.
- Have at least one big kick/punt return.
If Alabama can do these three things then there's no reason the Crimson Tide won't be lifting the national championship trophy. Nick Saban is the best in the business, and you can be certain that he will have his team prepared. After last year's loss to Ohio State in the semifinals, Alabama expects nothing less than National Championship number sixteen.