So far, Duke has survived their gauntlet of games, significantly boosting their resume for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. They’ve gone 2-0 so far against Louisville and Virginia, both ranked teams, with the victories coming at home. It took a last second miracle shot by Duke’s Grayson Allen to get the Blue Devils the victory at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Saturday.
Wednesday marks the first 241st edition of the Tobacco Road Rivalry, and this season, it begins at the Dean Smith Center when the 20th-ranked Duke Blue Devils travel to Chapel Hill to face 5th-ranked North Carolina Tar Heels.
The Recent History
Duke has dominated the recent history between the two teams. Mike Krzyzewski’s side has won three straight, five of the last six, and seven of the last ten against the Roy Williams’ side. Their last matchup came at Chapel Hill last March. Tyus Jones led Duke to a massive 53 point second half, giving the eventual national champions a seven point win over the Tar Heels.
The Coaching Battle
After experiencing a vertigo scare last week against Boston College, it’s fantastic to see Roy Williams back on the bench coaching, especially for a game of this caliber. Williams is 10-15 against Duke as the coach of Carolina and 11-18 overall. Meanwhile, Coach K has notched 42 career wins over Carolina.
Rebounding Will Be A Key Factor
In Carolina’s losses this year, rebounding has been a problem for them, especially in their most recent loss to Notre Dame. Though the fifth-ranked Tar Heels outrebounded the Fighting Irish by one, 41-40, Notre Dame notched 20 offensive rebounds with starters Bonzie Colson, Zach Auguste, and Demetrius Jackson notching 14 of them. Carolina will need to be sure to not give up many second chance opportunities or else, they’ll find themselves in yet another losing proposition.
On the season, Duke is a middle-of-the-road rebounding team, averaging just over 37 a game. Meanwhile, Carolina is averaging over 40 rebounds a game, which ranks them as one of the top 30 rebounding teams in the country. However, Notre Dame averages less rebounds compared to Duke, so if the Blue Devils get themselves in prime position on missed shots, they could definitely come away with a road victory.
Players To Watch For
Brandon Ingram: The 6’9’’ forward is one of the highly-touted prospects from this year’s class. He is currently averaging 17 points and six rebounds a game as well as an assist, steal, and a block. A stellar performance in a big-time rivalry game like this will solidify him as the second-best prospect behind LSU’s Ben Simmons.
Brice Johnson: In a battle of freshman - senior, Ingram is most likely going to be matched up with Carolina’s 6’9’’ forward, Brice Johnson. The senior leads Carolina in both scoring and rebounding, averaging a double-double of 16 and 10. He also adds in an assist, steal, and block as well, just like Ingram.
Prediction
Duke 82 North Carolina 77. Despite rankings, there really isn’t much that separates these two teams. Both are extremely talented but have underperformed throughout the season. What this game will come down to is which team has more players that can deliver in the clutch moments which Duke has with Ingram, Allen, Luke Kennard, and Matt Jones.