It’s the moment that NCAA Tournament fanatics have been waiting for since the tournament’s beginning nearly 80 years ago: a 16 seed taking down a 1 seed. It hasn’t happened in the previous 76 NCAA Tournaments but it sure has come close. Most recently in 2014 when 16 Weber State hung around with 1 Arizona and lost by single digits, 68-59.

But truly the closest in recent memory came in 2013 when Gonzaga was a 1 seed and considered overrated and nearly lost to 16 seed Southern University, but pulled away late to win 64-58. That same tournament, 16 Coastal Carolina battled back and forth with 1 Virginia, and the game was tied with just eight minutes remaining but the Cavaliers pulled away and won the game 70-59.

Other instances of a 16 seed coming close to the ultimate upset throughout NCAA Tourney history also includes when 16 Western Carolina missed a three pointer to take the lead and also missed a game tying shot in the final seconds before falling to 1 Purdue 73-71 back in 1996. Then in 1990, 16 Murray State took 1 Michigan State to overtime, but the Spartans came out on top 75-71.

Back in the 1989 NCAA Tournament, there were nearly two 16 seed over 1 seed upsets. 16 Princeton out of the East Region, who were 23-point underdogs against the 1 seeded Georgetown Hoyas, had chances to win the game but had their final two shot attempts blocked, and the Hoyas came out with a narrow win, 50-49. Then in the Southeast Region, 16 East Tennessee State led 1 Oklahoma by as much as 17 but the Sooners stormed back to take the lead with just over a minute to play. Just like Princeton, ETSU had a chance to win the game in the final seconds, but had a half court shot attempt deflected, giving the Sooners a 72-71 win.

So no 16s over 1s yet, but we’ve seen a few 15 seeds over two-seeds over the last few years. 15 Florida Gulf Coast defeated 2 Georgetown 78-68 in 2013, and made a run to the Sweet Sixteen. Then in 2012, there were two upsets of a 15 over a 2. 15 Lehigh beat Duke 75-70 and 15 Norfolk State beat 2 Missouri 86-84. Then in last year’s NCAA Tournament, two 14 seeds took down two 3 seeds (Georgia State over Baylor and UAB over Iowa State). So the world has seen upsets occur at every single seed in the Round of 64 except a 16 beating a 1. So it’s bound to happen sometime, right?

This Could Be The Year

2016 could be the year it happens, and here’s why:

This year in college basketball, there is no frontrunner for who is the best team in the nation. Yes, there are clear powerhouses likely to be one or two seeds like North Carolina, Kansas, Villanova, Oklahoma, etc. but each of those teams has slipped or faltered multiple times this season. Oklahoma, the number one three point shooting team in the nation who has a chance at becoming a 1 seed, shot 10/32 (31%) from deep in their most previous matchup against Kansas. They are shooting 44% from three on the season. All it would take is a bad shooting game from OU and for whomever the 16 seed is to capitalize by grabbing defensive rebounds and getting good looks and making shots on offense.

The formula is simple. All it takes is a one seed to overlook their opponent and/or have an off game and for the 16 seed to come into the game fired up and play sound, smart, fundamental basketball. This article is by no means guaranteeing that a 16 is going to take down a 1 nor predicting that it will happen, but just saying that if there was a year for a 16 seed to take down that one seed, this could easily be the year. It’s been a crazy year for college basketball with upsets all over the country in the regular season and come March, don’t be surprised if that Cinderella story 16 seed comes out on top against a one seed.

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About the author
Jeremy Bowen
Writer on the St. Louis Rams. Also occasionally talking about other sports going on in the St. Louis area.