As the old adage goes: Rome wasn’t built in a day. For the Oakland Raiders, the rebuilding process has spanned over a decade with little fruit to show from it. Failed coaching hires and botched draft have perpetuated the Raiders spiraling decline. Coming off of a 3-13 season and yet another new coaching hire, it seems to be business as usual for Raider nation to the uninitiated. But to those who are initiated, those who have weathered the storm, may now see a new dawn for the silver and black. In 2014, the Raiders dropped anchor by selected two potential franchise cornerstones in Derek Carr and Khalil Mack. With owner Mark Davis’ renewed confidence in General Manager, Reggie McKenzie, the Raiders will look to rock the boat and challenge the established hegemonies of the AFC West.
New In Town, Long Gone
The key to any transformative process is bringing in people and players that will influence a winning culture. With the midseason firing of lame duck head coach, Dennis Allen, the most important offseason addition comes at the top with new skipper, Jack Del Rio. Del Rio, a California native, is one of the few Raider head coaching hires in recent past with prior head coaching experience. As coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, Del Rio led the franchise to three winning seasons (including a 12-4 season) and broke even twice in nine seasons. While Del Rio’s overall win percentage record drifts just below .500, he’s commanded the respect and admiration of players wherever he’s been—including at his most recent job as the Denver Broncos’ Defensive Coordinator. Another big part of the Del Rio hire was his ability to attract an equally experienced staff. Veteran assistants Bill Musgrave and Ken Norton Jr. have the experience and pedigree needed to helm their respective sides of the ball. Musgrave’s offensive acumen was well documented during his time with the Minnesota Vikings, where he and Adrian Peterson manufactured a top 10 rush offense in 3 consecutive seasons. On the other side of the ball, Ken Norton Jr. transitions from Seattle’s linebacker coach to Del Rio’s first mate on the defensive spectrum.
Even with the attractive coaching hires, the team will only go as far as the talent on field. Objectively, the Raiders had one of the worst rosters to start the season—especially on defense—and purged many of the least effective starters, including linebacker Miles Burress and his rock bottom tackle rate. The roster was so barren, in fact, that a total of 5 rookies were thrust into starting roles by the start of the season: Derek Carr, Gabe Jackson, Khalil Mack, T.J. Carrie, and Justin Ellis. This year, each of those players will continue to play larger roles with a whole year’s experience under their belt. In free agency, the Raiders targeted bolstering their defense by signing defensive tackle, Dan Williams; safety, Nate Allen; linebackers Curtis Lofton and Malcolm Smith; re-signing defensive end, C.J. Wilson; and drafting defensive end, Mario Edwards. Each of these players are projected to play major roles on defense, and at the very least will add depth that was sorely missed in 2014.
On offense, the Raiders aggressively made moves to bolster Derek Carr’s chances of success. In 2014, Derek Carr ranked 7th in total pass attempts at 599. Despite the high volume of attempts, Carr was dead last amongst qualifying passers in yards per attempt. While the team moved on from the methodical chain moving wideout, James Jones, the team has turned over a much more potent group. Before selecting Alabama’s Biletnikoff Award winning Amari Cooper 4th overall in the NFL draft, Reggie McKenzie already made a concerted effort in corralling receiving talent that Carr could work with. The addition of Michael Crabtree will hopefully prove for more than mere redemption for the 2009 NFL draft gaffe when the Raiders selected Darrius Hayward-Bey 7th overall, and Crabtree becomes a productive contributor for the offense. The biggest haul—quite literally and figuratively—for the Raiders in free agency didn’t come at a skill position, though, but rather a player that touches the ball on literally every offensive snap. The signing of center Rodney Hudson represents exactly the type of pragmatic and reigned-in decisions that have defined Reggie McKenzie’s tenure as G.M. in Oakland. Hudson will immediately impact both the pass and run game by virtue of not only his physical ability, but also his intellect, by identifying blitzes and calling protections.
Offensive Outlook
Much of the optimism associated with the Raiders this season stems from the offense. With Derek Carr firmly placed as the starter, offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave can mold the offense around his skill set. Before all else, Musgrave must ensure Carr is left upright and comfortable behind the line of scrimmage. Despite admirably only relenting 28 sacks on the season in 2014, the Raiders offensive line still suffers from a number of question marks that must be answered in the course of training camp. Donald Penn and Gabe Jackson solidify the left side while Rodney Hudson mans the middle. On the right side, a cast consisting of Menelik Watson, J’Marcus Webb, Austin Howard, and rookie Jon Feliciano are the likeliest contestants to take right guard and tackle. A big part of the Raiders’ protection plans also include tight end Lee Smith, who effectively will serve as an additional tackle.
Behind Carr is a cast of talented runners led by Latavius Murray, Roy Helu, and long-time Raider staple: Marcel Reece. As it stands, the coaching staff is likely rooting for Murray to pull away from the pack like he pulled away from Chiefs defenders in the Raiders’ first win last season. Roy Helu will be less behind Murray in the depth chart than he will be occupying the role of designated passing downs back. In his last season with the Redskins, Helu set career highs in yards (477) and touchdowns (2) as a receiver. Other running backs on the roster include the deplorable Trent Richardson and the enigmatic Michael Dyer. Dyer, who many remember playing a big part in the Auburn Tigers 2011 National Championship win against the Oregon Ducks, may stand as the truest threat to Murray’s monopolization of the backfield.
As stated, the Raiders invested heavily into the receiving position this offseason and are expected to enjoy a surge in production. On two wide receiver sets, the Raiders have two completely new starters in Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper. In contrast to the relatively faceless lineup of Andre Holmes, Kenbrell Thompkins, and Brice Butler, Crabtree and Cooper add an element of explosiveness not on the roster since Tim Brown and Jerry Rice. The forgotten man amongst the Raiders' improved group is the return of Rod Streater. Streater, whose early season foot injury kept him out for nearly all of last year, caught 60 balls for 888 yards in 2013. While he’ll return to a team that doesn’t need him to be the designated pass catcher, Carr will surely enjoy potentially having three capable 1,000 yard receivers to throw to. Perhaps the most intriguing component of the Raiders offensive scheme comes with the incorporation of the tight end corps. Rookie Clive Walford and third year player Mychal Rivera both offer interior pass catching ability and can be simultaneously deployed with blocking specialist, Lee Smith, in short yardage and goal-line situations.
Defensive Forecast
Even though the Raiders defense will probably want to forget the majority of the 2014 campaign (after giving up a league worst 452 points), there were many things to be optimistic about moving forward. T.J. Carrie and Justin Ellis were standout rookie contributors and will reprise their roles as starting corner and defensive tackle, respectively. Concurrently, Khalil Mack was not only great for a rookie, he was great period—especially concerning the run game. Joining him up front will be second year tackle, Justin Ellis, and former Arizona Cardinal, Dan Williams. Considering their combined weight of 658 lbs., it becomes clear that the Raiders are focusing on closing the gates on the opposition’s run game. Improving the pass rush will also be a focus of the Raiders in a division still occupied by Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers. Defensive ends C.J. Wilson, Justin Tuck, and Mario Edwards will play big roles in gaining traction against the pass, while Sio Moore, Khalil Mack, and Benson Mayowa will rotate as designated pass rushers on obvious passing downs.
On the second level, the team faces it’s biggest challenge in plugging last season’s Achilles heel at middle linebacker. It helps that the team brought in former Seahawks linebackers coach, Ken Norton Jr., as the team’s new defensive coordinator. Along with him came 2014 Super Bowl MVP, Malcolm Smith. While Smith didn’t play a significant amount of downs last year behind K.J. Wright and Bobby Wagner, he is cut from the same athletic cloth. Providing depth and early down play is former saint and veteran middle linebacker Curtis Lofton. While Lofton’s effectiveness has been relegated to strict early down use, he’ll provide much needed depth to what has traditionally been a Raider weakness at linebacker. The aforementioned Sio Moore and his health will be key to the consistency of the Raiders’ linebacking corps. Moore has shown steady improvement in every year in the league, and the team will hope that this year he’ll fulfill the potential he’s hinted at all along.
Of all the position groups, the defensive backfield is the one that will require the most pre-season sorting. T.J. Carrie might be the only safe bet to start week one. D.J. Hayden and Keith McGill will compete to start opposite him, with the loser vying for essential nickel and dime roles with the remainder of the group. Safety also holds a number of question marks. Former Philadelphia Eagle, Nate Allen, was brought in to help fill a mostly empty cupboard. Charles Woodson will be a ripe 39 years old by mid-season, and late season standout, Brandian Ross will have to push for a starting role. Even if the Raiders confidently enter the season with a group the coaching staff is happy with, the lack of quality roster depth at corner and safety doesn’t bear a lot of margin for error.
The Road
As has been true of the Raiders over the past two years, the team certainly haven’t made friends at the NFL front office if the schedule is any indication. According to CBS Sports, the Raiders will face the league’s 7th toughest schedule according to last season’s metrics (tied with the Kansas City Chiefs):
Week 1 - Cincinnati Bengals
Week 2 - Baltimore Ravens
Week 3 at Cleveland Browns
Week 4 at Chicago Bears
Week 5 - Denver Broncos
Week 6 - Bye
Week 7 at San Diego Chargers
Week 8 - New York Jets
Week 9 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 10 - Minnesota Vikings
Week 11 at Detroit Lions
Week 12 at Tennessee Titans
Week 13 - Kansas City Chiefs
Week 14 at Denver Broncos
Week 15 - Green Bay Packers
Week 16 - San Diego Chargers
Week 17 at Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders out of division foes include opponents form the NFC North (Bears, Lions, Packers, Vikings), AFC North (Bengals, Browns, Ravens, Steelers) and conference foes; Tennessee Titans and New York Jets. Still, the Raiders will have the luxury of starting off the season with two consecutive home games and won’t face a division rival until the Broncos at home in week 5. If the Raiders can capitalize on a hot start, and carry that momentum into the second half of the year, 8 wins seems like this absolute ceiling for this roster. Considering the prospect of injuries, bad breaks, upsets, etcetera, yours truly sees the Raiders finishing with an optimistic 6-10 in 2015.