With the first month of the 2015 Major League Soccer Regular Season done, our writers were asked a series of questions about the start of the season and to make predictions about the rest of the year. Enjoy the contributions from Chris Blakely, Liam McMahon, Logan Alexander, Matthew Evans and Blayne Riffle.
1. A month into the season, is there a clear favorite for MLS Cup? If so who is it and what is the margin? If not, why?
Chris: A month into the season is tough to say there is a clear favorite for MLS Cup. Every year it seems that late in the season a team gets hot and makes a deep run into the playoffs, New England being the example from 2014. In the Western Conference the Seattle Sounders, Los Angeles Galaxy and FC Dallas are still my front runners. Not trying to take anything away from Vancouver, but they faded late last year and barely made the playoffs. Ask me in another two months and I can answer this question a little bit better.
Liam: In spite of only picking up 4 points from their first three matches, I still tip the Seattle Sounders to win MLS Cup. Their win on opening night over the New England Revolution was extremely impressive, and they should still be the favorites. In terms of the Supporters' Shield race, FC Dallas is off to a hot start and I could be tempted to join their bandwagon. However, it's too early to tell there.
Logan: I would say no, not currently. This season could be one of the most competitive we have seen in a while in MLS. The only impressive performances I've seen are FC Dallas start to the season and Vancouver Whitecaps heating up. There are plenty of great teams that have started not so well (Seattle, LA, NE) so we will see how those three teams do specifically in the coming weeks.
Matthew: As of now, there is no clear favorite for MLS Cup. Nobody has really separated themselves from the rest of the field yet and I do not anticipate that happening until the summer months. I still feel like the winner will come out of the Western Conference.
Blayne: At this point, I don't think we can call a clear favorite. FC Dallas and the New York Red Bulls are the only undefeated teams left, but they are both known to fade midway through the season. The early picks to have all struggled against some competition that was not supposed to challenge them this year. Montreal, San Jose, and Chicago were the weaker clubs in 2014 and all look much better in 2015.
2. What are the odds that we see a goal scorer reach 27 this season, given the start? Or how many goals will win the golden boot this season?
Chris: It hasn’t been done that often on a player scoring 27 goals. I know it has happened a few times the last couple of seasons, but I don’t see it happening this year. The golden boot winner will have right around 20 goals this season.
Liam: No one will score 27 goals. Bradley Wright-Phillips had a superb season last year, but that was with the assistance of Thierry Henry. Without him, he can still score 20 goals but not 27. It doesn't seem like any individual player has the firepower to score 27.
Logan: The Golden Boot will be decided on 22 goals or less, PRECISELY. Seriously though, I don't think BWP will have a season like he did last year and the only strikers I see that can consistently score throughout the season is Robbie Keane and Chris Wondolowski. Keep your tabs on Octavio Rivero of Whitecaps, though.
Matthew: I think the odds are pretty slim that we’ll see a player reach the 27 goal plateau in 2015. We do have some players who have gotten off to hot starts; five guys have scored three goals to this point including Clint Dempsey and Chris Wondolowski. If there is one person who could potentially challenge that mark it would be Fanendo Adi of the Portland Timbers. He has adjusted his game to the style of MLS and is reaping the rewards. His big frame will cause trouble for many opposing center backs, if he can stay healthy and continue to put balls in the net, I think he could end up with 20+ goals this season.
Blayne: If FC Dallas and Blas Perez can keep playing the way they ended 2014 and started 2015, that's the only real chance we see it this year. Defenses are stronger and it appears teams a playing a bit more conservatively. It may have something to do with the addition of so many offensive weapons throughout the league this year.
3. Which team has you the most excited for the rest of the season, given their start?
Chris: If I am looking solely at their start, I’d have to go with the Whitecaps. Vancouver has been playing well and they did just sneak out a win against the Portland Timbers this past weekend. I’m also curious to see if the Red Bulls can keep up with their hot start with all the changes that occurred in the off season.
Liam: Vancouver Whitecaps. They're off to a barnstorming start, and Octavio Rivero looks every bit a top class MLS goal scorer. While it doesn't necessarily seem like they're made to last over the full season, they're off to a really exciting start.
Logan: I'm most excited to see the two expansion teams and how their seasons play out. New York City FC sits in 3rd and Orlando City SC are at 4th currently in the Eastern Conference table. It will be interesting to see how it all looks in the coming weeks but specifically after this week. Orlando takes on D.C in a top of the table clash on Friday night, which is a huge game early in the season.
Matthew: The Vancouver Whitecaps have got me intrigued with their start to the year. They have earned nine points in four matches including a thrilling win over Cascadia rivals Portland last week. Not only do they have a strong starting eleven but they have found some game-changing talent coming off the bench. Barring a big winless streak, the Whitecaps should challenge for a Top 4 seed in the West.
Blayne: Even with the loss of Cameron Porter, I would have said the Montreal Impact. Their team looks completely different and ready to challenge for the East. They have two points in three games, but that includes a loss at D.C. United who won the East in 2014 and a draw at New England Revolution who went to MLS Cup. They drew their first game at home against Orlando City, but with both sides missing players, it's hard to make a decision. Add Kenny Cooper to this roster and they could soar to the top. Don't forget, they have a 2-0 aggregate lead in the CCL semifinals that means so much more than the start of the MLS season as well.
4. Which team who is off to a poor start will figure it out and make the playoffs?
Chris: Almost every year, the Sounders start off a little slow but always finish near the top of the standings. I expect to see them at the top even though it will not be as easy as it has been in the past. I also expect Sporting KC to somehow find a way into the playoffs. That team is just too dang good not to make it.
Liam: Seattle. Their loss to San Jose was really, really poor and they're currently sitting in 8th place in the West but they should comfortably make the playoffs.
Logan: Portland Timbers. Currently they are sitting bottom of the Western Conference with three points out of four games. Caleb Porter is a great coach and knows how to lead this squad to success. Also with the comeback of Diego Chara, and Will Johnson/Diego Valeri returning from injury soon, the future looks bright for the Rose City and I expect them to get to the mid table soon and consistently stay there.
Matthew: The New England Revolution. They have four points from four matches but still have yet to field their strongest squad. I think that they will find their high gear once Jermaine Jones comes back and establish themselves as the dominant force in the Eastern Conference.
Blayne: Other than Montreal, it's the two of the best clubs over the last several seasons. Sporting Kansas City and the Seattle Sounders both got off to slow starts and each have just a single win. Don't expect these two to stay down very long. Sporting's defense looks to be back in championship form with Ike Opara replacing Collin and looking better overall. Seattle may take a bit more time to come around with Clint Dempsey, Obafemi Martins, and Ozzie Alonso all injured right now.
5. Does MLS need to adjust its schedule so that it doesn't play during FIFA mandated international breaks?
Chris: Yes! It is ridiculous that they don’t take these breaks as it severely hampers certain teams like Orlando and Dallas to name two. I know in the past they have stated they don’t want to do it because it will cause too many midweek games. These guys are professionals. They will get through it.
Liam: Yes. 58 players were missing from MLS action last weekend, and the quality of play suffered all across the league from it. We need to address this, and the league won't be taken seriously by the whole world until this is changed.
Logan: MLS should schedule based on FIFA international dates. For teams like the United States, most of our guys play in MLS which makes it a difficult decision as to whether one would want to play for club or country. You want to continue to help your club team in MLS, but it's an honor to play for the national team. From a manager's point of view, they strive to put out the best squad they can on match day. Due to MLS not on the same FIFA schedule, managers lose key players during the season that they have to replace. Orlando barely made a squad this past weekend. Get it done Garber.
Matthew: Oh yes they do. The problem with that is it would force more mid-week matches. Unfortunately, almost every team in the league saw a sharp decline in their attendance on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday as opposed to Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. In 2014, there were 43 matches played on a MTWT night with the average attendance sitting at 16,844 for the league as a whole. There were 280 matches played on FSS, those matches averaged 19,501 fans per game. The difference comes to 2,657 less fans per game during weeknights.
Furthermore, the stats show that 17 of the 19 clubs saw declines in their midweek average attendance as opposed to their weekend average attendance. Only Portland and Real Salt Lake saw slight increases. Clubs cannot simply afford to have fewer fans buying tickets. Once the midweek attendance figures start to rival that of the weekends, then we will start seeing the league observe the FIFA International Windows, especially those which conflict with weekend matches.
Blayne: There is absolutely no excuse for hold league matches when over 10 percent of the active rosters are missing. MLS cannot afford to have its key players absent for a week of games. TV ratings and contracts are based on giving fans what they want, and fans don't want to see backups starting because of a poor scheduling decision. What makes it worse is teams have already had bye weeks, but MLS can't give them time off for international games. It's pathetic.
6. Do clubs need to stop playing international friendlies during the season as they can potentially cause injuries?
Chris: Yes! I can somewhat understand the friendlies during the summer as it gives the Premier League teams a chance to play in the United States and expand their brand even more. In saying that, the Sounders had no reason (other than preparing for CONCACAF Champions League in the summer) to play their friendly on March 24th. It caused an injury to Obafemi Martins and he had to miss their last match against Dallas.
Liam: Playing in-season friendlies is stupid and pointless; all it does is hurt the team playing the friendly. Sure, they make some money off of it but there's always the potential for a big name player to be hurt.
Logan: I don't see it as a big deal. More playing time for players always helps keep them fit and sharp. But at the same time, injury can play its part. This situation is all up to the manager.
Matthew: No. Friendlies are a good chance to expose your brand to fans that wouldn’t normally come out to see them. For teams like the Seattle Sounders, they may not be as necessary but for a team like the Chicago Fire or FC Dallas, bringing in a well-known club can expose more eyes to MLS who may not follow the league already.
Blayne: No, but teams need to approach it with the right mindset. These games shouldn't be intended to go all out. The international exposure, the extra money these games bring, and the excitement for the fans are all positives for having them. An injury will always call these games into question, but for a developing league like MLS it's a necessary evil. These games are also an opportunity for younger players to get playing time.