The Malaysian Open has seen six different winners in its brief existence. It will be seven after this season with defending Champion Kei Nishikori not in this week's field of 28.
Indoor Swing Heats Up
David Ferrer is the top seed in the draw with Feliciano Lopez, Ivo Karlovic and Grigor Dimitrov rounding out the top four seeds in Kuala Lumpur. The top eight seeds feature three players making their debut at this tournament in the third seed Karlovic, fourth seed Grigor Dimitrov and fifth seed Jeremy Chardy. Ferrer is the seed with the most experience at this tournament with a 6-4 mark. He made the semifinals in both 2010 and 2012.
As with most 250-level events, some seeds are prone to dropping their first matches. In the history of the Malaysian Open, at least one seed has dropped out in their first match of the tournament. In the last three years, a total of eight seeds have dropped their opening matches. That is right at one third of the 24-seeded matches played in that span and here is a look at some seeds who could be in trouble early this week.
Upset Alert
Fourth seed Grigor Dimitrov announced recently that he is working with Juan Martin Del Potro's former coach Franco Davin. This will be their first tournament together. It's difficult to expect immediate results unless a coach-player relationship just absolutely clicks. Dimitrov may also wind up playing St. Petersburg finalist Joao Sousa in his opener. Sousa faces Michal Przysiezny in the first round. Should he advance, he will take some confidence into a match with Dimitrov. Although both came a few years ago, Sousa has defeated Dimitrov twice. He shocked him most recently in the opening round of the 2013 US Open in a five-set match.
Sixth seed Jeremy Chardy is right around a .500 player on indoor hard courts and he has yet to see any action since the US Open. He faces Alexander Zverev first. Zverev played in Metz last week, losing a tough three-set match to Fernando Verdasco. Chardy has often done very little in the early parts of this transition to indoor courts. The young German will have an opportunity for a seeded scalp.
Eighth seed Vasek Pospisil won one and lost one last week in Metz. The loss to Martin Klizan in the second round wasn't terrible, so he could be in line to win early this week. Pospisil will start against qualifier Yasutaka Uchiyama. The young player from Japan does have three qualifying matches under his belt. He flashed a big serve in the last round with 17 aces in beating Luca Vanni. This should be winnable for Pospisil, but he has not been that strong on this surface in his young career.
First Quarter
Ferrer got in some good prep for this surface by playing a pair of Davis Cup rubbers in Denmark. He won both and has performed decently at this tournament in the past. He has been sneaky good at this time of year. He should get a winnable first match against the winner of Radek Stepanek and Yuichi Sugita.
Fifth seed Viktor Troicki is opposite of Ferrer in this quarter. He opens against Radu Albot. Albot is no pushover as he took Sousa to three sets in St. Petersburg last week. That means Troicki will need to be ready to go from the first ball in the opening round. The winner faces either Mikhail Kukushkin or doubles specialist Ramkumar Ramanathan who is in the singles draw as a wild card entry. Kukushkin should take that and then be a potential threat to advance to the quarterfinals.
Ferrer should have the motivation as he can still get into the ATP Tour Finals at the end of the year with a strong run for the indoor swing. He is ranked eighth currently, which is the final spot that qualifies for London. If Ferrer fails, Kukushkin looks to be a dark horse in this quarter.
Second Quarter
Your two seeds here would make for a good quarterfinal with Grigor Dimitrov and Jeremy Chardy on opposite sides in this quarter. Both may be pressed not to crack and lose early. A beneficiary of either of those guys losing could be Joao Sousa. Sousa flopped here last year in his first match, but won Kuala Lumpur in 2013. The survivor of the Jeremy Chardy vs. Alexander Zverev opening round match takes on Benjamin Becker, who made the quarters in Kuala Lumpur last year and looked solid on Monday in beating Sam Groth in straight sets. Becker could be a real sleeper in this quarter.
The fourth seed, Dimitrov, seems the likelier of the seeds to get through this quarter. Dimitrov generally has lost to only top tier players and big servers on this surface the last two years. In this quarter, he could avoid both and get through. Becker could certainly make a push in the bottom half though if the Bulgarian doesn't click early.
Third Quarter
This looks like a really good draw for Ivo Karlovic. He gets the winner of Alexandr Nedovyesov and Nikoloz Basilashvili in his first match. Karlovic hasn't burned up the indoor circuit this year with just a 1-2 record, but he has traditionally been better on this end of the year swing. He should have a good shot here with the up and mostly down Nick Kyrgios opposite of him in this quarter. The seventh seeded Aussie has not played much on this surface. He did get past Santiago Giraldo on Monday when the Colombian retired due to injury in the second set. Kyrgios may now face one of the more underrated indoor players on tour in Jarkko Nieminen.
The retiring Fin opens against Tatsuma Ito. Nieminen made the semis at this tournament a year ago and stands at 129-91 indoors during his career. This is the tail end of the 34-year old's career with just a handful of tournaments left. It's on a surface he prefers and that motivation factor should be there for him. This could come down to Karlovic against Nieminen for a semifinal spot. Kyrgios is a definite X-factor.
Fourth Quarter
Feliciano Lopez has not had great results on this surface. As a guy who likes to serve and come to the net, the usually quicker indoor conditions are not always conducive to that. He's not totally lost on the surface though as a guy with a big lefty serve that is difficult to break down when it is working. He gets Rajeev Ram or Mischa Zverev in his opening match. Zverev has shown some flashes the last week and may be a real tough out.
Opposite of Lopez in this quarter is eighth seed Vasek Pospisil. Pospisil has a decidedly tougher path. His first rounder comes against a qualifier, but then he will face the winner of Nicolas Almagro vs. Marcos Baghdatis. Almagro has taken to clay challengers lately to earn some rankings points, so he will be transitioning back to hard courts. Baghdatis played St. Petersburg last week. He beat Ernests Gulbis in the first round before losing to Tommy Robredo. Baghdatis could make some noise in this quarter.
Baghdatis looks possible to upset the apple cart in the other part of the quarter with Lopez not being a lock to make it deep in the top part. If it comes down to Pospisil against Baghdatis for a quarterfinal birth, the Cypriot has the confidence from beating him in Atlanta this summer. If Baghdatis gets that far, this columnist thinks he could take it a step farther to the semifinals.
Predictions
Semifinals: Ferrer def. Dimitrov, Karlovic def. Baghdatis
Final: Ferrer def. Karlovic