William's Path To The Final
At the Wuhan Open, a Premier 5 event, Venus Williams got payback for her sister Serena in defeating Roberta Vinci in the semis in 3 tight sets, 5-7, 6-2, 7-6. Last month, the charismatic and extremely talented Italian pulled off the upset of her career and season; she dismantled world number one Serena Williams in the semifinals of the US Open, preventing her from achieving the elusive calendar year Grand Slam.
The three set loss to Vinci was so utterly devastating that earlier this week she announced her intention to withdraw from her last two scheduled events - the China Open and WTA Finals in Singapore.
Venus is undoubtedly competing with an abundance of confidence having dispatched Agnieszka Radwanksa and Carla Suarez Navarro – both top ten players – on the road to the final.
Venus has made some noise of her own in 2015, having lived in the shadow of Serena for the better part of a decade. This season, at thirty-five years of age, she is currently ranked 24th in the world with a 31-11 win/loss record and one title. She last played Muguruza in January 2014 in Auckland and leads their head to head 2-0 with both matches contested on outdoor hard courts.
Muguruza's Path To The Final
Garbine Muguruza, who lost to Serena in the Wimbledon final, is currently ranked 8th in the world and will compete in her second final of the season having defeated a resurgent Angelique Kerber in straights in the semis.
The twenty-one year old Spaniard experienced a bit of a slump following her remarkable run to the finals at the All England Club this past July.
After a disappointing second round loss at the US Open last month, Muguruza has made notable inroads this fall. At the Wuhan Open she took out Sloane Stephens, Ana Ivanovic and Anna Schmiedlova.
How Venus Can Win
Venus’ first serve percentage was fifty-five against Vinci, winning a scant 41% of second serve points; this will not suffice against the hard-hitting Spaniard. She will have to serve extremely well against Muguruza who possesses lethal groundstrokes off both sides, and often hits well inside the baseline.
Physical stamina will most certainly be a factor given the significant age difference between the finalists, and Venus’ battle with an energy-depleting auto-immune disease. She played close to three hours today against Vinci and with no days off, she may find it extremely difficult to sufficiently recover. She will need to be in peak form both mentally and physically to combat Muguruza’s imposing arsenal of weapons.
How Muguruza Can Win
The world number eight served exceptionally well in her straight set semifinal victory over world number thirteen Kerber. Her first serve percentage was an impressive seventy-three with five aces. The Spaniard will face an explosive returner in the final so she must significantly improve upon her percentage of second serve points won if she hopes to defeat the former world number one.
The Spaniard moves quite well for her height and is comfortable at the net given her frequent and successful doubles play. This writer expects her to deploy the drop shot given her opponent's difficulty moving forward due to her stature and employ first strike tennis following huge first serves.
Although Venus is a seven-time Grand Slam champion with years of experience competing and winning finals, this writer contends she will be unable to withstand Muguruza’s barrage and weight of shot. Though the young Spaniard is still maturing mentally and tactically, she is undeniably on an upward trajectory with grand slam glory in her future.
Prediction: Muguruza in straight sets.