The final women’s Grand Slam singles match of the year takes place on Saturday with the 10th seed Karolina Pliskova and 2nd seed Angelique Kerber facing off for the US Open title.
With Kerber now guaranteed to rise to number one in the rankings at the beginning of next week, the German may feel less pressure, though Pliskova will also be confident after an impressive run and after crushing Kerber in the Cincinnati final less than three weeks ago.
The 10th seed is looking for her first Grand Slam title, after having never made the second week of a slam before, whilst Kerber is looking for her second Major title after her Australian Open triumph in January.
How they got here
Both women head into this final in a lot of good form with the two dropping a combined total of one set to make the final; Pliskova and Kerber have both been in very good form to make the final.
Pliskova started fairly well, securing solid straight set wins over wildcard Sofia Kenin and qualifier Montserrat Gonzalez in the opening two rounds. The Czech upped her level in the third round, putting in a good performance to see off 17th seed Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, before saving a match point to battle past 6th seed Venus Williams in her first ever Grand Slam fourth round match. She then eased past Ana Konjuh in the last eight, before playing extremely well to see off top seed Serena Williams in straight sets to make the final.
Kerber was not really tested in her opening match, with Polona Hercog retiring after losing the first set 6-0 due to illness, though she did have a test in the next match, saving three set points in the second set as she saw off Mirjana-Lucic Baroni. After that, the second seed eased past Cici Bellis before edging past 14th seed Petra Kvitova in two tight sets. The German then won a tight first set before easing past 7th seed Roberta Vinci in the last eight, before seeing off Caroline Wozniacki in straight sets to make her third Grand Slam final of the year.
Analysis
This final will be a battle of two players with very contrasting styles; the 10th seed is extremely aggressive and a huge server, whilst the 2nd seed is more of a counterpuncher who uses her strong defense to work her way into the points. It will be interesting to see who can enforce their style of play the most in this final.
One of the key reasons for Kerber’s rise to the top is that she has been more willing to be aggressive at some stages, and she must do this at every opportunity she gets to try and finish points off early as possible, as Pliskova, with her bigger weapons, is more likely to win the shorter rallies. The German must serve well, as the Czech has shown throughout this tournament she can be lethal when returning, and must try to use her extremely strong movement to frustrate Pliskova, and try to force errors out of the tenth seed.
One area where Pliskova is weaker than her opponent is movement, though she has improved in this area; Kerber will not find it easy to dictate when she gets the opportunity. The 10th seed will need to serve well against someone who is now more willing to be aggressive, though has the weapons to effectively dictate play and kill off points quickly; something she must look to do regularly against a strong defender. Pliskova should also look to come into the net on some occasions, as she has proven this tournament that she can comfortably win points by coming in.
It will be interesting to see what factor nerves play in this final. In her third Grand Slam final, Kerber will not be intimidated by the occasion and no longer has to deal with the pressure of chasing the number one ranking, though this is arguably the first time she heads into a Grand Slam final as the favorite; it will be interesting to see how she deals with that.
Pliskova could feel the pressure of the biggest match of her career, though the fact that she may not be the favorite could help her. Furthermore, the Czech is an extremely cool customer and has shown no sign of frustration during the tournament; this could help her, as it gives Kerber nothing to feed on.
Head to Head
This will be the eighth meeting between the two and the fourth consecutive meeting between the two that is taking place in a final. Kerber currently leads the head to head 4-3 and 3-2 on hard courts
The German won their first two meetings, in 2011 (before either had neared the top) and 2014, both on hard courts, in straight sets, though Pliskova responded by winning the next two matches between the two in straight sets, including a win in the semifinals of the Apia International last year.
The pair then faced off in two finals in the summer of 2015, Kerber prevailing in three sets in both the finals of the Aegon International (on grass) in Birmingham and the Bank of the West Classic on hard court.
Their latest meeting, however, was one of the most one-sided in their rivalry. In the Cincinnati final just a few weeks ago, a very solid Pliskova eased past a perhaps weary Kerber 6-3, 6-1 to win the biggest title of her career so far; it is unlikely that Kerber will be as poor again, though Pliskova will take a lot of confidence from that win, as well as the 11-match win streak she is on because of it.
Assessment
It would be surprised if it was as one-sided as the Cincinnati final (hopefully it won’t be), and the contrast of styles could lead to a very interesting, and competitive, final.
If Pliskova plays as well as she has in her past two matches she’ll be very tough to beat, though Kerber will certainly make life more difficult for the Czech today. This should be a very tight match, and due to her strong defense, it seems that Kerber should edge this final to take her second Grand Slam title.
Prediction: Angelique Kerber in three sets
Other VAVEL USA writer's predictions
Tevon King: Pliskova in three sets
Pavitra Ganesan: Pliskova in three sets
Silas Low: Kerber in two sets
Thomas Cluck: Kerber in three sets
Noel Alberto: Kerber in two sets
Pathik Gamana: Pliskova in three sets
James Froud: Kerber in two sets
Amy Stevenson: Pliskova in three sets
Max Gao: Kerber in three sets
Joshua Coase: Kerber in two sets
Brooks Giardina: Pliskova in three sets