A hugely anticipated match, but yet unexpected at the start of the tournament, would occur in the semifinals of the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix. Never would any of us have expected Maria Sharapova to have such a successful comeback from her 15-month suspension, and for Kristina Mladenovic to get past such a difficult first quarter of the draw. This would also be an intriguing match-up between the two hard-hitting players, especially after Mladenovic made some rough comments about the five-time Grand Slam champion.
This has truly been an outstanding season for Kristina Mladenovic, who won her first ever WTA title and reaching a new career-high ranking with spectacular and consistent performances. Reaching her fourth semifinal of the year, Mladenovic showed her pursuit for a Top 10 ranking as she also rattled off three top-five victories in the process. Her first breakthrough came at the St. Petersburg Ladies Trophy, where she defeated Yulia Putintseva in a thriller to clinch a maiden WTA title and return to the Top 40 after a very poor start to the season which saw her losing the opening two matches of the year.
She also reached the semifinals of the BNP Paribas Open, her furthest run at any Premier Mandatory event. With generally less than 1000 points to defend through the rest of the year, a Top 10 debut seem possible for Mladenovic especially when her game suits all courts and she is in great form currently. However, three of her losses this year have come against players outside the Top 50, which proves that consistency is still a problem for the Frenchwoman.
It was a totally different case for Maria Sharapova, who has recently just returned from her 15-month suspension due to her controversial case last year. This is her first tournament back after the lengthy layoff from the professional sport, but her performance through her first three matches can already give a premonition about her future results this year. Despite facing very tough opponents in Roberta Vinci and Ekaterina Makarova, both former top 10 players lurking in the draw, Sharapova got to her second consecutive quarterfinal appearance (the first being last year’s Australian Open) without dropping a set despite having no match practice at all for the past 15 months.
Having a tough match against the red-hot qualifier Anett Kontaveit yesterday, Sharapova got past the tricky opponent in straight sets and progressed to her first semifinal since the 2015 WTA Finals. With the Top 10 players being very inconsistent and performing poorly, this is the golden opportunity for Sharapova to rise in the rankings. Currently, at number 120 on the Road to Singapore leaderboard, the Russian is now also at number 262 in the rankings itself, with a victory against Mladenovic separating her from a direct entry into the qualifying rounds of the French Open.
Who wins?
Kristina Mladenovic definitely looks like the favourite to win the match on paper considering her great form and her impressive wins in Stuttgart. Defeating Mirjana Lucic-Baroni in the first round and the former world number one Angelique Kerber in the next round was definitely not an easy feat, before following it up with a straight sets victory over claycourt specialist Carla Suarez Navarro in the quarterfinals yesterday. Nevertheless, it would definitely be a very tight match as Maria Sharapova herself had her own excellent victories. Both players enter the semifinals without losing a set, something to be worth noted for.
Mladenovic has looked great in Stuttgart with the surface being very suitable for her game, defeating three Top 30 players consecutively. The Frenchwoman plays a hard-hitting game, which can trouble Sharapova greatly if she plays her best tennis consistently. As seen in her previous matches, Mladenovic is able to dictate play throughout the match and come up with impressive shots such as her out-of-nowhere drop shots to mix up her opponent’s rhythm.
To have a greater chance of triumphing on Saturday, the world number 19 must try to be on the offense for most of the time. Her strong serve will aid her in comfortably holding her service games, but she must keep her first serve percentage high as Sharapova is a player who takes most of her opportunities, and would pounce on any opportunity, no matter how small it is, to find a way to break serve. Mladenovic’s defense would have to be solid enough to fend off Sharapova’s bullet-like groundstrokes and serves, and if both players were to be playing their best tennis, it would definitely be a thriller.
Sharapova looked like she was playing her best tennis in Stuttgart as she enters the semifinals without losing a set and even won 84 out of 101 first service points on the centre court, which is a massive 83 percent. The Russian also served 24 aces in her first few matches, an average eight aces per match which further shows that her serve improved greatly during her suspension. As seen in her previous matches, Sharapova’s groundstrokes have been quite inconsistent as most of her 52 unforced errors were from the baseline, but her 93 winners largely also came from there.
Against Mladenovic, the five-time Grand Slam champion must be very solid in all aspects of her game to increase her chances of triumphing. Sharapova has to keep the number of first serves going in high, and must try to win as many second serve points as possible. Dictating play should be Sharapova’s priority as playing on the defense against the powerful Mladenovic would be very dangerous and risky. It will definitely be interesting to see if Sharapova can keep up her level of play from her previous matches and step up her game against her toughest challenge thus far.
Prediction: Maria Sharapova d. Kristina Mladenovic in three sets
Sharapova is the one who has more weapons and is far more consistent than any other player on tour, and therefore she has a high chance of triumphing in this match. Nevertheless, when Mladenovic plays her best tennis, almost no one would be able to stop her so therefore do not be surprised if the Frenchwoman can sneak out the win.