The fourth Masters 1000 tournament is reaching its conclusion, and the final sees fourth seed Rafael Nadal taking on eighth seed Dominic Thiem at the Mutua Madrid Open.
The former world number one will be competing in his third consecutive Masters 1000 final, whilst Thiem will be competing in his first. The 29-time Masters 1000 final winner will be looking to equal Novak Djokovic's haul of 30 Masters 1000 titles, in his 45th Masters 1000 final, which is a record appearance for Masters 1000 finals.
The 14-time Grand Slam champion is having a stellar 2017 campaign, after suffering two injury-plagued seasons, which left many to wonder if Nadal would ever get to a high level again. The Spaniard has answered many of his critics, and part of the thanks has to go to compatriot and former French Open champion Carlos Moya, who has been a good addition to the Nadal camp. Moya has experience in coaching as he was a part of Milos Raonic's coaching team and led the Canadian to his first Grand Slam final at Wimbledon last year.
Furthermore, Nadal will be competing in his sixth final of 2017. He lost to his eternal rival Roger Federer in the Australian Open and Miami Open finals, whilst he lost to Sam Querrey in the ATP 500 tournament in Acapulco. He put that right in Monte Carlo and Barcelona by winning both titles on ten occasions each.
Nadal will be competing in his sixth Mutua Madrid Open final and his opponent will be the eighth seed, Dominic Thiem. The Austrian is competing in his 13th ATP World Tour final and third final of 2017 after losing to the Spaniard in the final in Barcelona but he defeated Nadal's compatriot Pablo Carreno Busta in the final in Rio, a few months ago.
Thiem is an established player on all three surfaces but predominately clay is his favourite surface. The 23-year-old advanced to his first Grand Slam semifinal at the French Open last year but he was completely outplayed by eventual champion Novak Djokovic. It was a learning curve for the eighth seed, who will go into the French Open this year with a lot of confidence.
Nadal's route to the final
The 14-time Grand Slam champion suffered from an ear infection, which caused him pain before he started the tournament. Therefore, the tournament decided to delay his match by 24 hours as he was due to play his first match against Fabio Fognini on Tuesday but moved to Wednesday. Nevertheless, the four-time champion dispatched Fognini in a match that almost lasted three hours, 7-6 (3), 3-6, 6-4. He took the lead in his head-to-head with 16th seed Nick Kyrgios for the first time.
Nadal dispatched the fiery Australian, 6-3, 6-1, and in the quarterfinals, the four-time champion defeated ninth seed David Goffin in a rematch of their Monte Carlo semifinal clash. The Spaniard defeated Goffin, 7-6 (3), 6-2 in a superb performance from Nadal. In the semifinals, it was the test that the fourth seed needed and he was up against the defending champion Novak Djokovic. Djokovic had a bye into the semifinals as 2014 runner-up Kei Nishikori withdrew due to a wrist injury. It was the 50th instalment between the pair who have 26 Grand Slam singles titles between them.
Nevertheless, Djokovic has been struggling for form in 2017 and he had a seven-match winning streak against Nadal. The Spaniard ended Djokovic's title defence quite comfortably, snapping his seven-match losing streak against the Serb, and defeating him for the first time since winning the French Open in 2014, extending his winning streak to 14 wins in a row with a 6-2, 6-4 victory. It was an emotional victory for Nadal over Djokovic as the celebrations after the match, showed how much it meant to him.
Thiem's route to the final
The eighth seed has only dropped one set like Nadal, and he received a bye in the first round. Thiem began his quest for a first Masters 1000 title against Jared Donaldson defeating the American, 6-3, 6-3. However, last year's French Open semifinalist had his toughest match in Madrid as he had to save five match points in his third round match against two-time Grand Slam semifinalist Grigor Dimitrov.
Thiem came through, 4-6, 6-4, 7-6 (9) to send the 12th seed packing. The Austrian took advantage of potential quarterfinal and semifinal opponents Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka's early exits by defeating Borna Coric, 6-1, 6-4, and he finished a few minutes after midnight local time to defeat Pablo Cuevas, 6-4, 6-4 to play in the biggest final of his career.
Breakdown of their rivalry
This will be the fifth encounter between the two finalists, and all four of their previous encounters have all taken place on clay courts. Nadal won their first meeting in the second round of the French Open in 2014, 6-2, 6-2, 6-3 and he went on to win his ninth French Open title, which is still his most recent Grand Slam title win.
However, Thiem would gain revenge and defeat Nadal in a three-set thriller in the semifinals on the South American clay courts of Buenos Aires, 6-4, 4-6, 7-6 (4). The Spaniard would once again defeat the Austrian in their third round encounter at the Monte Carlo Rolex Masters last year with a 7-5, 6-3 victory. The 14-time Grand Slam champion went on to claim his ninth title in Monte Carlo defeating Gael Monfils on that occasion. The duo's fourth and most recent encounter was in the final of the Barcelona Open. The final was Thiem's second at ATP 500 level but Nadal won this match comfortably, 6-4, 6-1 to win his 71st career title and 51st on clay.
Who clinches the title?
There is a lot on the line for both players in terms of rankings. Should the former world number one defeat the eighth seed in the final, he will return to the top four of the ATP World Tour rankings at four in the world. Thiem will rise to a new career-high ranking of six if he defeats the King of Clay and clinches his first Masters 1000 title.
Nadal is also aiming to win multiple Masters 1000 titles in the same season since 2013 when he won five at Indian Wells, Madrid, Rome, Montreal and Cincinnati. Should Nadal beat Thiem it will also be the first time since 2005 that he has won in Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid in the same year. The four-time champion has served exceptionally well this week, and when he has been pushed behind the baseline, he has won some extraordinary points with his forehand, that has been firing on cylinders all week. The Spaniard has thrown in a few drop shots to unsettle his opponents, and his return of serve has been good this week.
Thiem's backhand has been firing this week, and the 23-year-old has overcome a lot of adversity this week but he has remained determined to do well in Madrid. The Austrian will have learned a lot from his previous meeting with Nadal in Barcelona but it will be a tall order for Thiem to defeat the former world number one. However, last year's French Open semifinalist did defeat Murray in Barcelona to reach that final but Nadal is full of confidence, and he is leading the race to London for a reason.
Thiem will need to serve well in this match against Nadal, as it will be harder for him to come back at a break down. He may feel the fatigue in this final but the Austrian's powerful backhand and forehand can do damage to Nadal. The draw for the fifth Masters 1000 final of the year at the Internazionali BNL d'Italia in Rome was released on Friday, and the duo are projected to meet in the quarterfinals.
This final will take place at not before 6 pm local time on the Manolo Santana court, and it should be an interesting battle between these two players. However, Nadal is playing the best tennis that he has produced since his 2013 season, and he will be extremely tough to beat in this clay court season. Expect the Spaniard to win his 15th consecutive clay court match, and a record fifth title at the Caja Magica on Sunday.
Prediction: Nadal in straight sets.