Tsitsipas began his tournament with a dominant 6-1, 6-2, 6-1 victory over Gilles Simon in the first round followed by a five-set classic over Thanasi Kokkinakis by a 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-1, 6-7 (5), 6-4 scoreline. The fifth seed returned to his dominant ways with a 6-4, 6-1, 6-1 win over Mikael Ymer in round three.
Berrettini has dropped just one set en route to the last 16. He defeated Kevin Anderson 7-6 (9) 7-5, 6-3 in the first round. Round two saw a 6-3, 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 victory over Czech qualifier Tomas Machac and followed it up with a 7-6 (1), 7-6 (5), 7-6 (5) win over 19th seed Karen Khachanov in the third round.
This is the second career meeting between Tsitsipas and Berrettini with the Greek winning their only prior encounter in Melbourne two years, a 6-7 (3), 6-4, 6-3, 7-6 (4) victory in the first round.
Both players have strong forehands a e-33nd will want to use it to set up rallies to put themselves in position to take control from the baseline. Each man will also want to find the other's backhand, the weaker side for both.
Berrettini has a bigger serve and is able to use it to get free points, taking pressure off of the rest of his game. Tsitsipas is better at net and will come forward when he can to try and put pressure on the Italian, especially if he is not having a good day off the ground.
The Greek is also prone to overhitting and making many unforced errors as a result. Berrettini can expose this by utilizing his kick serve, especially to Tsitsipas' backhand. Conversely, the ninth seed is prone to struggling with his defensive game.
Berrettini was nursing a minor stomach issue following his win over Khachanov. If that's not serious, he has an excellent chance of pulling off the minor upset. He's in good form having led Italy to the ATP Cup final, has the weapons to overpower Tsitsipas and the quicker courts will certainly help, especially on serve.
While the Greek is deserved favorite and has been a semifinalist, he's played weak competition and Kokkinakis, a player who is injury-prone, pushed him to five sets. His backhand will likely get exposed and if he isn't serving well, Berrettini will feast on the return. In conclusion, this is a match that will be very close with the Italian moving on.
Prediction: Matteo Berrettini in five sets