The most anticipated matchup of the Italian Open will take place on Friday in the quarterfinals as the two men who have combined to win every title in Rome since 2005, seven-time champion Rafael Nadal and world number one Novak Djokovic, will meet for a 49th time with a spot in the semifinals on the line.
The match will be third on Centre Court.
How they got here
Nadal and Djokovic have had similar paths to quarterfinals. They both won their opener’s in straight sets before dropping the first set of their third round matches, coming back to win in straight sets.
Djokovic has been far from impressive so far in Rome. His opening round match against Stephane Robert was hardly easy and it took two long sets, 7-5, 7-5, for Djokovic to put the Frenchman away. He had a nightmare start to his third round match, losing the opening set 6-0 before bouncing back to win the last two against Thomaz Bellucci. He might be vulnerable going into the quarterfinals.
Nadal has been the stronger of the two so far. His second round win over Philipp Kohlschreiber was fairly solid, as the Spaniard was consistent and strong off the baseline in a way he was not in Madrid. He faced a tough test in the form of the big-hitting Nick Kyrgios in the third round. He was broken early and dropped the opening set in the tiebreak, but he did not play badly and eventually his grinding baseline game wore the Aussie down, and Nadal will enter the quarterfinal playing some consistent tennis.
The History
Djokovic and Nadal have the most extensive rivalry in ATP history. They have played more times than any other pair in the open era, with this match being their 49th. Djokovic leads the head-to-head 25-23 and has won six matches over Nadal in a row. Nadal’s last win over the world number one came at the 2014 French Open. The Spaniard still leads their head-to-head on clay 14-6.
They have played each other five times in Rome, with Nadal winning three of those meetings. However, Djokovic has won two of their last three in the Italian capital, including their last meeting here in 2014. Nadal defeated Djokovic at this stage in straight sets in 2007.
Who will up their game more?
Neither man is coming into this match playing at 100 percent of their ability. Nadal has been the stronger of the two, but matches with the King of Clay tend to bring out the best in Djokovic. Assuming Nadal continues to improve, or at the very least plays the consistent, grinding tennis he has played so far in the tournament, Djokovic will have to play better. He’s been vulnerable so far in Rome and Nadal could take advantage.
That being said, the world number one has the winning strategy against Nadal. The Spaniard will need to be perfect if he wants to turn the tables since, no matter his level, Djokovic knows exactly what to do to beat Nadal.
Will Nadal’s forehands do damage?
In big matches of late, Nadal’s legendary forehand has let him down. Not only has he struggled to put it in the court, but when he does, it’s often short and allows his opponents to step in and attack. This is never truer than against Djokovic, who eats up short Nadal forehands with his big two-handed backhand, which the Spaniard stubbornly attacks. If Nadal wants to win, he needs to be the aggressor and his forehand is the key. He needs to be striking it with confidence, driving it deep to push Djokovic around the court.
Moreover, it needs to be varied. If he keeps attacking the Djokovic backhand, the Serbian will take advantage. The world number one loves to dictate with his two-hander and when he knows it’s coming, it gives him time to recover. The world number five needs to vary his targets so that his opponent is on the move. Nadal needs to keep Djokovic on the defensive with his forehand. If that shot starts to misfire, it will be hard for the Spaniard to emerge victorious.
Prediction: Djokovic in three sets
Somehow, Djokovic always seems to find a way to win these matches with Nadal. Even if he goes in struggling, something about the occasion brings out the best in him. And the fact is that Nadal is not at 100 percent. He collapsed in the big matches last week in Madrid and have a tough time with Kyrgios in the third round. While he’s been solid, he has not been spectacular. Nadal will have to bring his A-game, and Djokovic tends not to let him play at that level.